With 51 points available this weekend (17 in each of three Kentucky Derby Prep Season races), the February 2 action will be the most lucrative to date on this year's Triple Crown trail.
For free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances for the three races (Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, Withers at Aqueduct, and Robert Lewis at Santa Anita), click here. No race this weekend features a horse currently among the top 11 points earners through last weekend, but that would change even for a horse without any points with a win.
Triple Crown Insider returns for this big weekend on the Derby trail. Watch the video below to see who JS & JC like in this weekend's big races.
Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!
Jan 31, 2013
Points make the grade, too
Over on the Twitters, Chris Rossi of @O_Crunk fame is fond of chiding me for sticking up for a Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands qualifying system that now uses points rather than graded stakes earnings to determine the field if more than 20 horses enter.
Indeed, back in March 2010 I wrote a paean to the graded stakes earnings system that dared anyone to think that a points system could be superior.
One of the things gambling has taught me is that there's no perfect system. The martingale eventually collapses under the weight of table limits, and "angles" in horse racing (e.g. best last-out figure) eventually lose their edge in a pari-mutuel format.
And so it goes with Derby qualifying rules, too. The new system isn't perfect but nor was the old system. Lost in all the consternation of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner no longer being guaranteed a spot in the Derby starting gate is that the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile Turf, and Juvenile Fillies Turf winners aren't either.
That Shanghai Bobby isn't yet guaranteed a spot in the Derby is a big reason why we saw him in the Holy Bull Stakes this past weekend. Do you think Uncle Mo would have run in the Timely Writer Stakes if the points system was in place in 2010-2011?
Another Breeders' Cup Juvenile comparison people make is to lament that the race is "worth the same as the Delta Jackpot" or "the four-horse Bob Lewis." What they don't acknowledge is that it's also no longer the most important race, as it was when it worth $2-million rather than
I am not arguing for or against the BC Juvenile being worth 10 points to the winner, but I absolutely do think it's a positive that it and all other Breeders' Cup races are no longer automatic qualifiers and that it's no longer the most valuable race for qualifying purposes.
Also lost in the conversation is that spots one through 19 really don't matter. Oh, sure, those higher in the standings might attract more money from casual fans who recognize the names, but in terms of the purpose of the system, a billion points in first is the same as ten points in 19th.
And 20th only matters if there's a horse in 21st. It's not a given that more than 20 will enter. The wailing and gnashing of teeth four months out about which horses might be left out doesn't seem to reflect the real possibility that no horse will be left out.
Admittedly when this all began I had my doubts whether the new points system would achieve its stated goal of being more accessible to fans and help build drama on the Road to the Derby, but I'm happy to report that initial returns (albeit based mostly on anecdotal evidence) appear that I was wrong, and that the system is in fact helping drum up more interest not only in the races but also both the horses and competitions involved in the build up.
Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!
@heylaserbeam @petedenk I get pure, unadulterated satisfaction that @ejxd2 has to defend point system that not long ago he woulda laughed at
— o_crunk (@o_crunk) January 18, 2013
Indeed, back in March 2010 I wrote a paean to the graded stakes earnings system that dared anyone to think that a points system could be superior.
One of the things gambling has taught me is that there's no perfect system. The martingale eventually collapses under the weight of table limits, and "angles" in horse racing (e.g. best last-out figure) eventually lose their edge in a pari-mutuel format.
And so it goes with Derby qualifying rules, too. The new system isn't perfect but nor was the old system. Lost in all the consternation of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner no longer being guaranteed a spot in the Derby starting gate is that the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile Turf, and Juvenile Fillies Turf winners aren't either.
That Shanghai Bobby isn't yet guaranteed a spot in the Derby is a big reason why we saw him in the Holy Bull Stakes this past weekend. Do you think Uncle Mo would have run in the Timely Writer Stakes if the points system was in place in 2010-2011?
Another Breeders' Cup Juvenile comparison people make is to lament that the race is "worth the same as the Delta Jackpot" or "the four-horse Bob Lewis." What they don't acknowledge is that it's also no longer the most important race, as it was when it worth $2-million rather than
I am not arguing for or against the BC Juvenile being worth 10 points to the winner, but I absolutely do think it's a positive that it and all other Breeders' Cup races are no longer automatic qualifiers and that it's no longer the most valuable race for qualifying purposes.
Also lost in the conversation is that spots one through 19 really don't matter. Oh, sure, those higher in the standings might attract more money from casual fans who recognize the names, but in terms of the purpose of the system, a billion points in first is the same as ten points in 19th.
And 20th only matters if there's a horse in 21st. It's not a given that more than 20 will enter. The wailing and gnashing of teeth four months out about which horses might be left out doesn't seem to reflect the real possibility that no horse will be left out.
Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!
Jan 30, 2013
Stop, Look And Win
A special TwinSpires promotion for players of the Feb. 2 Woodbine harness card is on the docket, so check out the ways and means of that by clicking here.
We won't handicap the entire Pick 4 at Woodbine but below we offer one horse in each of the legs we feel you should have on your ticket.
Our exclusive horses-to-watch list (H2W) has been reeling in successful horses and we continue this week sans the cancellations last weekend’s bad weather provoked. First, let us answer some questions that have crossed our desk about the horses that earn their ways onto the H2W.
The most asked questions concern the lack of information we include with H2W inclusions. All of these inquiries can be answered simply. We do not take into consideration any of the usual elements people place weight upon when handicapping a harness race. Hot drivers or trainers don’t matter to us; class plays little-to-no role in the selection; track size and the track itself are moot points.
We are concerned with trips, which in our decades of experience have always been the primary predictors of which horses would contend in their next two or three outings. Other elements so not matter to us, including speed, which is always a debatable factor. With this in mind, it would only clutter the text to add those tired, brief comments that handicappers have attached to picks for as long as there have been tip sheets.
Suffice it to say that H2W horses have raced impressive recently and must be considered “live” now, regardless of morning-line or post-time odds. Our experienced eyes watch races objectively and notice the trips that send up flares that horses may be ready to fire and hopefully pay well.
The proof of this is in the results of our H2W candidates. Our larger double-digit successes so far this season have not appeared as picks in any other blog or pick sheet; they have been exclusive to TwinSpires’ readers. Always review the legend, published again below, to authenticate the choices and learn to judge how you will use the information.
Legend
Before the horses’ names is the track, followed on the next
paragraph by a date it (or they) will be racing, with the race in which they
are entered (R and race number). If a + is in front of a horse’s name, it means
that horse is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it
failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” means the horse is on the
also-eligible list and needs a scratch to get into the race. Sometimes up to
three horses are listed in the same race; it is up to you how to deal with the
situation (note that in the past this situation has resulted in exacta and
triples).
If a horse that has appeared on the list but was scratched
or is not racing its second week consecutively, you will see a N/R after its
name and will appear on a separate line from dated entries. And if a horse
shows up at another track in its second week of being listed, it will display
the plus sign as indicated above.
There is a margin of error, of course, so we encourage you
to keep your own list along with our list to be sure our H2W is free of
mistakes.
All members of the list need to be considered serious
contenders in the races noted. Wagering on any of them is based on your own
judgment of value, as well as if you wager to win, place, show or in exotics.
If you have any questions about the H2W list, send them to us through the
TwinSpires blog channel.
H2W
Buffalo
2/1/13, +Freds Dream R1; Townline Debbie R 2; Dudley Doright R5; Fourstarzconfusion R7; Hidden Dragon R11; Grayland Becky R13
2/2/13, +Full Circle Sprint R1; +Northmedo Esther R6; +Aston Seelster R13
Cal Expo
1/31/13, Viking Mia R3; Cat Call R4; Wildcats Major R11
2/1/13, Barona Destiny R1; Morwyn Hanover R1; Girls Lie Too R6; +Loco For Cocoa R13
2/2/13, Mighty Kicker, R1; +A Little Looney R9; +Boot Scootin Bow R10; Charmer R13; Fire On Ice R14
+Forever My Love N/R; Smiling Major N/R
1/31/13, Viking Mia R3; Cat Call R4; Wildcats Major R11
2/1/13, Barona Destiny R1; Morwyn Hanover R1; Girls Lie Too R6; +Loco For Cocoa R13
2/2/13, Mighty Kicker, R1; +A Little Looney R9; +Boot Scootin Bow R10; Charmer R13; Fire On Ice R14
+Forever My Love N/R; Smiling Major N/R
Fraser
2/1/13, +I Hear Voices R2; Millbanks Ariel R6; Cody Cobraski R7; Procrastinationatinpeat R8; Bobbysslackeystar R8; +Thunder Noise R8; Anasazzi Road R9; Kg Mattattack R10; Latino Hall R10; +Midnight Destroyer R10; Hf Thanks Will R11; Rich As Promised R11
2/1/13, +I Hear Voices R2; Millbanks Ariel R6; Cody Cobraski R7; Procrastinationatinpeat R8; Bobbysslackeystar R8; +Thunder Noise R8; Anasazzi Road R9; Kg Mattattack R10; Latino Hall R10; +Midnight Destroyer R10; Hf Thanks Will R11; Rich As Promised R11
Freehold
2/1/13, Devine Filly R2; Hello Linda R3; Chesca Girl R6; Sammy L R8
2/2/13, GW Gizmo R1; Pocketfullapower R5; +The Life Boat R6; The Midnight Owl N R8
2/1/13, Devine Filly R2; Hello Linda R3; Chesca Girl R6; Sammy L R8
2/2/13, GW Gizmo R1; Pocketfullapower R5; +The Life Boat R6; The Midnight Owl N R8
+Whatever Lolawants NR
Maywood
2/1/13, Gram Legend R3; Master Jeeves R4; Stoney Interlude R 7; Balladeer Hanover R9; +Nine Innings R9; Dontgetbyme R10; Dick McTracy R13
2/1/13, Gram Legend R3; Master Jeeves R4; Stoney Interlude R 7; Balladeer Hanover R9; +Nine Innings R9; Dontgetbyme R10; Dick McTracy R13
Meadowlands
1/13/13, +Paisley R4; +Corky Baran R7; Rocknroll Jewel R10
1/2/13, Mystical Victress R1; Lucky Roll R6; Delightful Diva R7; April Sunshine R9; Dragon Princess R11
+Celebrity Bombay N/R; +Time To Roll N/R
1/13/13, +Paisley R4; +Corky Baran R7; Rocknroll Jewel R10
1/2/13, Mystical Victress R1; Lucky Roll R6; Delightful Diva R7; April Sunshine R9; Dragon Princess R11
+Celebrity Bombay N/R; +Time To Roll N/R
The Meadows
2/1/13, +Wardog Hall R1; Grin-n-scoot R3; Aks Livin Large R5; Charles Ray R6; Tk Diva R8; Abundasass R8; Wizkey Road R9; +All Day Pass R11; +Bourbon St Hanover R12; Ram Jam R13; Bs Surgin Dan R15; Bloomington R15
Aj Niko D’oro N/R; Haverford Hanover N/R; Campo Basso NR
2/1/13, +Wardog Hall R1; Grin-n-scoot R3; Aks Livin Large R5; Charles Ray R6; Tk Diva R8; Abundasass R8; Wizkey Road R9; +All Day Pass R11; +Bourbon St Hanover R12; Ram Jam R13; Bs Surgin Dan R15; Bloomington R15
Aj Niko D’oro N/R; Haverford Hanover N/R; Campo Basso NR
Northfield
2/1/13, Sweetie Sue Cam R2; +Fast Attack R2; +Coupon Lady R3; Redmeansgo R5; It’s a Sham R6; Katies Dreamboat R8; +Blue Time Ice Lady R8; Dawn Of New Money R10; Jessies Band R13; Billys Joni R13; Hagitha R14; Beforethenightstarts R15
+Arts Shadow N/R; +Iknowwhatboyslike N/R
2/1/13, Sweetie Sue Cam R2; +Fast Attack R2; +Coupon Lady R3; Redmeansgo R5; It’s a Sham R6; Katies Dreamboat R8; +Blue Time Ice Lady R8; Dawn Of New Money R10; Jessies Band R13; Billys Joni R13; Hagitha R14; Beforethenightstarts R15
+Arts Shadow N/R; +Iknowwhatboyslike N/R
Pompano
1/30/13, +Straight Jack R5
2/2/13, Peaceful Price R2; One Lucky Dragon R3; A Fool For Mack R4; Taylor C R11
Whiteland Will N/R; Ricks Sign N/R
1/30/13, +Straight Jack R5
2/2/13, Peaceful Price R2; One Lucky Dragon R3; A Fool For Mack R4; Taylor C R11
Whiteland Will N/R; Ricks Sign N/R
Yonkers
2/1/13, Mobile R1; Macho Lindy R2+Live Jazz R2; Chang Dynasty R7
2/2/13, +Western Dakota R10
+Summer Snow N/R; Hulas Z Tam N/R
2/1/13, Mobile R1; Macho Lindy R2+Live Jazz R2; Chang Dynasty R7
2/2/13, +Western Dakota R10
+Summer Snow N/R; Hulas Z Tam N/R
Woodbine contenders for TwinSpires Feb. 2 promo:
Race 4, Yackety Yak
Race 5, Whippet Good
Race 6, Duke Of Donegal
Race 7, Coach Cal
Race 4, Yackety Yak
Race 5, Whippet Good
Race 6, Duke Of Donegal
Race 7, Coach Cal
Ray Cotolo
contributed to this edition.
Jan 26, 2013
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
There were three winter-series finals at the Meadowlands on Jan. 26 in the
aftermath of a moderate snowfall that blanketed the tri-state area the day
before.
The Presidential
Final went as predicted with a Golden Receiver win that swept the early season
stake series. We looked for a Dial Or Nodial upset but that one could only
finish third.
Our Clyde Hirt Final choice was also third and he had to
share it in a dead heat.
The Super
Bowl Final resulted in a winner, with Windsun Galiano, one of the two
horses we suggested. He paid $9.20 while our other choice, No Less Than Magic,
finished fourth.
H2W
Here they are from the highest paying to the lowest paying winners from the H2W on our blog last Thursday:
$30.00, My Tryin Ryan, Cal
Expo
$20.40, Super Manning, Yonkers
$6.60, Forever Lucky , Northfield
$6.00, Scootin Jenna, Northfield
$5.80, Stings, Cal Expo
$5.20, Bullville Player, Freehold
$4.80, Cams Future, Freehold
$2.90, Flem N Em N, Yonkers
$20.40, Super Manning, Yonkers
$6.60, Forever Lucky , Northfield
$6.00, Scootin Jenna, Northfield
$5.80, Stings, Cal Expo
$5.20, Bullville Player, Freehold
$4.80, Cams Future, Freehold
$2.90, Flem N Em N, Yonkers
The following are the horses that finished second and third
and from Thursday’s list along with their post-time odds. Special notes on
their affects in those positions follow. Be aware that some of them were
second-timers on the list and will not return next week (you may continue
following them on your own, using them as you see fit).
Seconds:
Special Strides (3-1), Pompano; Ashton Seelster (7-1), Buffalo; Map Of Hawaii (7-2), Freehold; Whatever Lolawants (9-1), Freehold; Friskie D (13-1), Northfield; Fire On Ice (7-1), Cal Expo
Special Strides (3-1), Pompano; Ashton Seelster (7-1), Buffalo; Map Of Hawaii (7-2), Freehold; Whatever Lolawants (9-1), Freehold; Friskie D (13-1), Northfield; Fire On Ice (7-1), Cal Expo
Thirds
Colefederate (17-1), Maywood; Holly Hill Master (5-1), Yonkers; Full Circle Spirit (3-2), Buffalo; Best Tasting (7-1), Northfield; Best Life (7-2), Freehold; Hurrikane Anthony (7-2), Freehold
Colefederate (17-1), Maywood; Holly Hill Master (5-1), Yonkers; Full Circle Spirit (3-2), Buffalo; Best Tasting (7-1), Northfield; Best Life (7-2), Freehold; Hurrikane Anthony (7-2), Freehold
All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will
be in the Thursday blog.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yonkers has increased the appeal of its most important stakes. Beginning in 2013, guaranteed final purses are presented in the open divisions. The changes take effect immediately with the foal crop of 2010. The half-mile oval is home to three major harness events: the Yonkers Trot, Art Rooney Pace and Messenger Stakes.
The Yonkers Trot is scheduled for Saturday (July 27), with a $450,000 guaranteed final. The Art Rooney Pace for three-year-olds will now have a guaranteed final of $275,000 on Saturday (June 1). The Messenger Stake, slated for Saturday (Nov. 2), will feature a final guaranteed at $450,000.
The purses for the accompanying filly divisions will continue with estimated purses as follows: the Lismore and Lady Maud are $115,000 estimated and the Hudson Filly Trot final is $110,000 estimated.
Three-time Trotting Mare of the Year Buck I St Pat retired in 2011 to become a broodmare. On Jan. 24 she gave birth to her first foal, a filly by 2007 Horse of the Year Donato Hanover. The foal was born at Hanover Shoe Farms in Pennsylvania, where “Donato” stands as a stallion.
Buck I St Pat won 51 of 106 starts, including two Breeders Crown finals, the Armbro Flight, the Classic Series final, the Conway Hall, the American-National and two Maxie Lee Memorial titles. She earned $2.32 million
Come Together is the hottest horse at Dover Downs, winning his 10th in a row. Since last fall, Come Together, a son of champion pacer Artsplace and now a seven-year-old gelding, continues to call bettors to the windows for future races since overlays will be flowing from the fields he faces.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Extraordinary Extras
Here’s a free ride for my column in Hoof Beats (the
analog mag). My January, 2013 column offers a way to become an organized
harness racing investor. Check
it out my clicking here. It’s the featured article of the issue and the
best advice you will get all year about your wagering campaign.
Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats
blog titled Vast
Performances. Every weekend as part of that blog we we offer Balmoral
Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic
Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets.
Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute
suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your
TwinSpires accounts.
Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.
Cartoons by Thom Pye
Wiseguys Holy Bearish on Shanghai Bobby
This is common phenomena among the horse racing cognoscenti. Picking favorites--especially odds on favorites coming off a layoff following a slow race--is taboo and a typical path to the poorhouse. It's not that anyone thinks Shanghai Bobby can't win--he's even the most likely winner--but 4-to-5 on the aforementioned variables does encourage shopping around.
So what is the best approach to betting a race where the most likely winner is an underlay? On the plus side, underlays create overlays (not always the case because of takeout, but you can't have an overlay without an underlay), but on the negative side, betting against the most likely winner increases variance, so navigating these situations is essential for proper bankroll management.
Itsmyluckyday is my top pick. I think he can win this race 25% of the time (3-to-1 fair odds), so 6-to-1 (14.3%) makes him a decent win bet, and the field is competitive enough that I'll probably play him across in case Shanghai Bobby runs well ... enough for fourth.
Still, I do like Shanghai Bobby more than some of the otherwise-fashionable alternatives in the race like Frac Daddy and Dewey Square. If Shanghai Bobby were to win, then I'd like to beat FD & DS underneath. There's still money to be made if Shanghai Bobby wins but Itsmyluckyday and/or Sr. Quisqueyano crash the number as well.
The one favorite on the card I do love is Kauai Katie in the Forward Gal Stakes (Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs for Kentucky Oaks prep races, including the Santa Ysabel). She'll be 1-to-2 making her tough to bet to win, but I'll probably try to get live to my prices in the Holy Bull by singling her in the multis.
And perhaps the most exciting news of all as the Kentucky Derby trail winds toward Louisville, is that TCI is back with Jon Siegel and Joel Cunningham recapping the major players on the trail so far and previewing the Holy Bull.
Jan 25, 2013
Weekend Handicapping Reports
With all
the great carryover pools entering this weekend — $573,851 in the Rainbow Six
(not quite the same as the Pick-6) at Gulfstream Park, $55,831 in the Pick-6 at
Santa Anita, $3,777 in the Super High Five at Sunland Park to name a few — I decided
that, instead of my typical column, I would instead focus on taking down some
of these pools.
Here’s the
plan: Today (Friday) and throughout the weekend I will be posting a variety of handicapping
reports, along with my thoughts on specific races. So be sure to check back frequently,
as I will be continually adding and updating stuff.
I’ll begin
with a look at some of today’s races. Below are my top plays from tracks across
the country, along with some Win Factor Reports (my computerized fair odds
line) for Gulfstream Park, Turf Paradise and Sunland Park.
 |
| (Click on image to enlarge) |
Weekend Win Factor Reports
Friday (01/25/13)
Gulfstream Park (GP)
Santa Anita Park (SA)
Sunland Park (SUN)
Saturday (01/26/13)
Aqueduct
Fair Grounds
Golden Gate Fields
Gulfstream Park
Parx Racing
Brisnet PPs with Simon Speed Rations & Fair Odds
Saturday (01/26/13)
Santa Anita Park
Friday (01/25/13)
Gulfstream Park (GP)
Santa Anita Park (SA)
Sunland Park (SUN)
Saturday (01/26/13)
Aqueduct
Fair Grounds
Golden Gate Fields
Gulfstream Park
Parx Racing
Brisnet PPs with Simon Speed Rations & Fair Odds
Saturday (01/26/13)
Santa Anita Park
Jan 24, 2013
The Jazzman: from babysitter to Pick 6 hitter
Six years ago when “a crazy girlfriend” he
had met at church dragged The Jazzman to Palm Beach Kennel Club to babysit her
kid so she could bet the races, the South Florida
musician never imagined he’d be playing the races from home let alone winning
$270,448 on a $10 wager in the process.
But that’s exactly where the
blues player from West Palm Beach
found himself on Monday when he turned a $10 Pick 6 play on TwinSpires.com into
$270,448, and he’s taking requests on what to do with the money.
“I have some bills to pay off,
and I’ll probably put the rest into a money market account,” The Jazzman said.
“I need to do something exciting, though. Got any ideas? I’ll probably take
some swings at Gulfstream’s [$500,000-plus Rainbow^6] carryover.”
The Jazzman is no stranger
to small bets with big rewards. In 2009 he hit a $53,000 Pick 6 at Fairplex on
a $4 ticket. For his more-than-quarter-million-dollar score on Monday, he
played three tickets: a $2 ticket using all favorites, a $4 ticket using no
favorites, and a $4 ticket combining his most likely winners with the longshots
he liked most such as Renee’s Titan in the Santa Ynez.
It was that last $4 ticket
that hit for $270,448 as one of two winners of the bet on the day.
“I got up Monday planning to
play the Pick 6,” The Jazzman said. “The first thing I do is download the
Brisnet past performances on TwinSpires since I get those for free when I bet
and look at pace, speed, and class. Then I look at the jockeys of contenders.
The thing I follow most is Southern California
jockeys; I follow those jockeys like a groupie follows rock stars.”
The Jazzman credits knowing
all the jockeys in the colony—not just the stars like Mike Smith and Rafael
Bejarano—with leading to his Fairplex score, and his faith in Tyler Baze served
him well when that journeyman piloted Renee’s Titan to win the Santa Ynez over
heavily favored two-year-old filly champion Beholder in her three-year-old
debut.
The Jazzman’s strongest
opinion was in the last race with $6.20 winner Judge Carr. Live to only that horse
for a monumental score instead of hedging with others in the race, he simply
bet Judge Carr to place to add another $3.40 to his $270,448 score.
Despite the big score and
zest for chasing other carryovers, The Jazzman doesn’t plan to change his approach.
“I learned to handicap using
the Brisnet PPs,” he said. “There’s so much information there I remember the
first time I opened it up and said, ‘My God.’
“But I stuck with it and
stuck with my approach of always making a concerted effort to bet a small
amount of money. I don’t like to overwhelm myself with a bunch of horses in
every leg. These guys sit around at the track and they have ten horses in a leg
and still lose.
“You can do a lot with $200,
but you can do a lot with $10 too. The most important thing is you have to
study."
Chasing the Rainbow
For those playing today's big carryover in the Rainbow Six at Gulfstream Park, click HERE for a FREE Win Factor Report (my computerized fair odds line).
And good luck!
And good luck!
Jan 23, 2013
Blustery Winds For Winter Winners
TwinSpires will keep you updated on any track closings over the weekend. Meanwhile, we are going to present our product as if the races will go on because ill winds can blow away as quickly as they arrive and we want bettors to be on top of the action as long as the track doors are opened for business.
At the Meadowlands some winter-series finals will adorn the Saturday night program, including the Presidential Final for the early season’s fastest group, the stalwart older pacing males.
And we are looking forward to another big weekend of success from our exclusive horses-to-watch list (H2W).
Magnificent Meadowlands Finales
The stakes features this Saturday are all located at the
Meadowlands. The track showcases the finals of the Super Bowl Trot, Clyde Hirt
Pace and Presidential Pace on Jan. 26.
First up on the card is the Super Bowl Final. The likely
favorite in this condition-trot stake is Helios, the Miller-trained trotter.
We’ll take a shot with two others, No Less Than Magic and Windsun Galiano.
No Less Than Magic finished on the board in both of his
“Super” preliminaries within the last two weeks. He closed from far off the
pace in both miles to receive minor honors. This week he should be closer to
the front, where a possible speed battle could develop between Joyeux Dream,
Where To Hanover and Wisenheimer. If that happens, No Less Than Magic will be
in the perfect stalking position to close strongly for the win.
Windsun Galiano may be the strongest horse in this field.
The trotter has two tough first-over miles in his last three starts, both
victories. He made a break in the opening round of the Super but was able to
rebound with a tough first-over duel to win. Although he drew post 10, he
should get a good spot and a good second-over trip to pull off a minor shocker.
The Clyde Hirt Final could offer value, although
heavy-choice Holdingallthecards drew the rail. In a race likr the Super, where
a speed duel could develop, Mr Dennis should be close to the top. He sometimes
takes the lead or tries to stalk the speed and here he should leave the gate
fast and attempt to get a pocket spot and ride it through the mile until it is
time to fan out and charge after the leader.
Golden Receiver headlines the Presidential final as he eyes
a repeat in the first free-for-all pace stakes event of the year. He drew post
7 this week and is the likely favorite but our eyes are elsewhere, in search of
an upset.
Dial Or Nodial has been Golden Receiver’s main rival in this
series. In last week’s preliminary, “Dial” sat far off the pace and tried to
close on “Golden,”who flew away from the field in the stretch. Dial should be
forwardly placed and may get a good trip, one where it will be easy for him to
close to a likely sub-:26 final quarter that will be set by Golden Receiver.
Winners On Our Watch
Our horse-to-watch list (H2W) is the exclusive “hot-horse”
vigil released to TwinSpires harness players through this blog. To review, here
is how you read the H2W list below:
Before the horses’ names is the track, followed on the next
paragraph by a date it (or they) will be racing, with the race in which they
are entered (R and race number). If a + is in front of a horse’s name, it means
that horse is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it
failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” means the horse is on the
also-eligible list and needs a scratch to get into the race. Sometimes up to
three horses are listed in the same race; it is up to you how to deal with the
situation (note that in the past this situation has resulted in exacta and
triples).
If a horse that has appeared on the list but was scratched
or is not racing its second week consecutively, you will see a N/R after its
name and will appear on a separate line from dated entries. And if a horse
shows up at another track in its second week of being listed, it will display
the plus sign as indicated above.
All members of the list need to be considered serious
contenders in the races noted. Wagering on any of them is based on your own
judgment of value, as well as if you wager to win, place, show or in exotics.
If you have any questions about the H2W list, send them to us through the
TwinSpires blog channel.
H2W
Buffalo
1/25/13, +Keystone Fling R2; Northmedo Esther R2; Full Circle Spring R10
+Freds Dream N/R; +Little Gus N/R; + Pro Kid N/R; +ML Jackhammer N/R; +PW Tootsie N/R; Marians Man N/R; The Grey Bullet N/R
Cal Expo
1/25/13, Blue Boy Yankee R7; My Tryin Ryan R8; +Cherry Tree Nicole R8: +Stretch Artist; Boot Scootin Bow R13
1/26/13, Loco For Cocoa R5; A Little Looney R7; Strings R9; Forever My Love R 11; Fire On Ice R11; Charmer R12
Wildcats Major N/R; Smiling Major N/R; Cat Call N/R; Viking Mia N/R
Fraser
1/25/13, Blue Boy Yankee R7; My Tryin Ryan R8; +Cherry Tree Nicole R8: +Stretch Artist; Boot Scootin Bow R13
1/26/13, Loco For Cocoa R5; A Little Looney R7; Strings R9; Forever My Love R 11; Fire On Ice R11; Charmer R12
Wildcats Major N/R; Smiling Major N/R; Cat Call N/R; Viking Mia N/R
1/25/13, Comearoundback R2; +Red Star Bogart R2; Millbanks Ariel R3; Anasazzi Road R6; Rich As Promised R7; Hf Thanks Will R7; I Hear Voices R8; Cody Cobraski R9; Kg Mattattack R10; +Midnight Destroyer R10; Procrastinatinpeat R11; +Thunder Noise R11; Bobbysslackystar R11
+Tap Out N/R; +Workfortheman N/R
Freehold
1/25/13, +Map Of Hawaii R5; +Whatever Lolawants R7
1/26/13, +Cams Future R3; +Hurrikane Anthony R6; +Bullville Player R6; +Best Life R8; The Life Boat R8; Move On ae R9; +Whipper Snapper R12
+ Rockinrollin Now N/R; GW Gizmo N/R; +Milliondollar Art N/R; +J’omama N/R; +Country Fresh NR; +Cool Ashlee NR
1/25/13, +Map Of Hawaii R5; +Whatever Lolawants R7
1/26/13, +Cams Future R3; +Hurrikane Anthony R6; +Bullville Player R6; +Best Life R8; The Life Boat R8; Move On ae R9; +Whipper Snapper R12
+ Rockinrollin Now N/R; GW Gizmo N/R; +Milliondollar Art N/R; +J’omama N/R; +Country Fresh NR; +Cool Ashlee NR
Maywood
1/25/13, +Colefederate R5; +Sign The Prenup R12; +Looking For Jack R12;
1/25/13, +Colefederate R5; +Sign The Prenup R12; +Looking For Jack R12;
+Nine Innings M/R; Dick McTracy N/R
Meadowlands
1/25/13, Celebrity Bombay R3
+ Rocknroll Jewel N/R; +Time To Roll N/R; +Corky Baran N/R; +Paisley N/R
1/25/13, Celebrity Bombay R3
+ Rocknroll Jewel N/R; +Time To Roll N/R; +Corky Baran N/R; +Paisley N/R
The Meadows
1/25/13, +Wardog Hall R1; Aks Livin Large R3; Tk Diva R8; Abundasass R8; +Aj Niko D’oro R8; Wizkey Road R9; +All Day Pass R11; +Bourbon St Hanover R12; Bloomington R13; Ram Jam R15; +Bs Surgin Dan; R15
Haverford Hanover N/R; Campo Basso NR; Grin-n-scoot N/R
1/25/13, +Wardog Hall R1; Aks Livin Large R3; Tk Diva R8; Abundasass R8; +Aj Niko D’oro R8; Wizkey Road R9; +All Day Pass R11; +Bourbon St Hanover R12; Bloomington R13; Ram Jam R15; +Bs Surgin Dan; R15
Haverford Hanover N/R; Campo Basso NR; Grin-n-scoot N/R
Northfield
1/25/13, +Scootin Jenna R6; +Rhianne R8; +Best Tasting R9; +Forever Lucky R10; Blue Time Ice Lady R11; +Friskie D R15
1/25/13, +Scootin Jenna R6; +Rhianne R8; +Best Tasting R9; +Forever Lucky R10; Blue Time Ice Lady R11; +Friskie D R15
+Fast Attack N/R; +Coupon Lady N/R; +Arts Shadow N/R; +Lucky
Express N/R
Pompano
1/26/13, +Stonebridge Bonus R1; +Special Strides R3; Muscles To Spare R5; +Desert Hanover R6; +Straight Jack ae R6; +Mai Tai Guy R7; +Diamond Star R8; +Card Hustler R8; +Legal Dream R9; +Future Plans R10; +Wellthereyougo R10
+Whiteland Will N/R; +Rick’s Sign N/R
1/26/13, +Stonebridge Bonus R1; +Special Strides R3; Muscles To Spare R5; +Desert Hanover R6; +Straight Jack ae R6; +Mai Tai Guy R7; +Diamond Star R8; +Card Hustler R8; +Legal Dream R9; +Future Plans R10; +Wellthereyougo R10
+Whiteland Will N/R; +Rick’s Sign N/R
Yonkers
1/24/13, +Whatever Lolawants ae R2; +On The Tab R6
1/25/13, +Holly Hill Master R3; Live Jazz R5; Summer Snow R9; Super Manning R10;
1/26/13, Flem N Em N R1; +Talktomecourage R10
+Hula’s Z Tam N/R; +Western Dakota N/R
1/24/13, +Whatever Lolawants ae R2; +On The Tab R6
1/25/13, +Holly Hill Master R3; Live Jazz R5; Summer Snow R9; Super Manning R10;
1/26/13, Flem N Em N R1; +Talktomecourage R10
+Hula’s Z Tam N/R; +Western Dakota N/R
Ray Cotolo
contributed to this edition.
Jan 22, 2013
The Kentucky Derby future wager question before a big prep race: Now or later?
There's zero chance that Shanghai Bobby will be the 1-to-20 Uncle Mo was when winning the Timely Writer Stakes, but he might be around the 9-to-10 Hansen was when second to Algorithms in last year's Holy Bull (at a one-turn mile; this year's race is 1 1/16 miles).
I'd be beyond shocked if Shanghai Bobby weren't favored, but a deep field featuring Bern Identity, Clearly Now, Dewey Square, Frac Daddy, Itsmyluckyday, Sr. Quisqueyano, and Tulira Castle should keep the price in that even money range--especially since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (his first race around two turns) was so slow based on metrics used by people who can move an odds board.
I'll have (what I hope is) the pleasure of being in Las Vegas this week both before and after the Holy Bull, and all of the probables above are listed for wagering on the Wynn's Kentucky Derby future wager pool (link goes to free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of all horses offered).
Derek Simon and I have talked about our approaches to future wagers on the TwinSpires.com podcast, and listeners know that Shanghai Bobby (15-to-1), Frac Daddy (22-to-1), and Dewey Square (35-to-1) wouldn't appeal to me at those prices, but Bern Identity (50-to-1), Itsmyluckyday (65-to-1), Tulira Castle (100-to-1) Sr. Quisqueyano (225-to-1), and Clearly Now (250-to-1) have more appealing prices.
The question is, do I bet now or later? My thinking right now is that Shanghai Bobby is definitely the most likely winner of the Holy Bull but not of the Kentucky Derby. The way I plan to bet that opinion is to "let him" win the Holy Bull and if any of the horses at 50-to-1 or better run well behind them then still try to lock in those inflated prices.
The risk is that if any of the $100+ horses wins (or runs a flashy race behind the champion) then that price will be gone as well, but that's a chance I'm willing to take since I think Shanghai Bobby is the most likely winner of this race but not of the Kentucky Derby.
If you like Sr. Quisqueyano or Clearly Now those prices might seem enticing now, but they're certain to be among the longshots in the Holy Bull. Let's say they're 20-to-1 and a win would reduce either's price for the Kentucky Derby to 50-to-1. A $2 wager on them to win the Derby now would return $452 on Sr. Quisqueyano and $502 on Clearly Now. A $2 wager on them to win the Holy Bull would return $42. Parlaying that on them to win the Derby gets you to $2,000+. Even if they dropped to 20-to-1 after a Holy Bull win you'd be better of parlaying.
Thus, there really isn't that much risk to giving up the big price if you really like them to win. Granted, you're still going to lose some odds if they run well, but it still makes sense to wait.
For those looking for some pari-mutuel future wager action, Churchill Downs' first pool will be February 8-10, which is an empty week as far as points races going but follows a busy February opening of the Sam F. Davis, Robert B. Lewis, and the Withers.
As a final aside, here is the previous ten champion two-year-old males and race and odds in their three-year-old debut. I think it's interesting that both Uncle Mo and War Pass bowed in meaningless races at 1-to-20 and then lost their next start before missing the Derby. That Shanghai Bobby shows up in the Holy Bull is a testament A) to the effectiveness of the new Derby points system, B) trainer Todd Pletcher's confidence in the champion, or both.
Hansen, Holy Bull, 9-to-10
Uncle Mo, Timely Writer, 1-to-20
Lookin At Lucky, Rebel, 11-to-10
Midshipman, off trail
War Pass, allowance, 1-to-20
Street Sense, Tampa Bay Derby, 6-to-5
Stevie Wonderboy, San Rafael, 3-to-5
Declan's Moon, Bob Lewis (nee Santa Catalina), 4-to-5
Action This Day, Sham, 19-to-10
Vindication, retired
Jan 19, 2013
Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes
We scored in the best paying of three Clyde Hirt leg winners
with Cee Pee Panic at $15.40. And we scored with the lowest price, the
prohibitive choice Holdingallthecards at $2.40. We offered a triple combo but
went two out of three as Ethan Hanover finished second for a $7.40 exacta (Who
Dat Love, our other exotic choice, was fifth).
The other “Hirt” chapter saw us finish second with Mr Dennis
at 8-1.
There was no beating the choice in the Presidential leg, as
we expected, so Golden Receiver presented a $3.00 win mutuel. We could not
catch the exotics with him, as Dial Or No Dial finished fourth and Mr Hasani N
was fifth.
It was the best week the H2W presented thus far, not just in
the raw number of winners but in prices. Four horses that won at 10-1 or better
were listed.
H2W
Here they are from the highest paying to the lowest paying
winners from the list on our blog last Thursday:
$26.40, Fancy Foxy, Buffalo
$25.60, Super Railee, Pompano
$25.00, Incredible Gambler, Cal Expo
$22.80, She Shell Cruise, Northfield
$13.80, Red Star Cashflow, Fraser
$8.30, Fuel Cell, Yonkers
$8.20, Yukon Luck, Buffalo
$5.80, Iknowwhatboyslike, Northfield
$4.80, Coupon Lady, Northfield
$4.80, This American Life, Fraser
$4.60, Guts N Glory, Maywood
$3.40, Fool To Cry, Meadows
Here are the horses that finished second and third that will
return to the H2W list next week and how they finished, along with their
post-time odds. Special notes on their affects in those positions follow.$25.60, Super Railee, Pompano
$25.00, Incredible Gambler, Cal Expo
$22.80, She Shell Cruise, Northfield
$13.80, Red Star Cashflow, Fraser
$8.30, Fuel Cell, Yonkers
$8.20, Yukon Luck, Buffalo
$5.80, Iknowwhatboyslike, Northfield
$4.80, Coupon Lady, Northfield
$4.80, This American Life, Fraser
$4.60, Guts N Glory, Maywood
$3.40, Fool To Cry, Meadows
Seconds:
Cams Future (6-1), Freehold; Best Life (1-1), Freehold; Paisley (6-5), Meadowlands; Latino Hall (7-2), Fraser; Straight Jack (2-1), Pompano; Ml Jackhammer (9-1), Buffalo; The Grey Bullet (2-1), Buffalo; Fast Attack (9-1), Northfield; Cat Call (7-2), Cal Expo; Dani California (4-5), Cal Expo; Nowerland Collins (42-1), Cal Expo; Wardog Hall (16-1), Meadows; Aj Niko D’oro (6-1), Meadows
Cams Future (6-1), Freehold; Best Life (1-1), Freehold; Paisley (6-5), Meadowlands; Latino Hall (7-2), Fraser; Straight Jack (2-1), Pompano; Ml Jackhammer (9-1), Buffalo; The Grey Bullet (2-1), Buffalo; Fast Attack (9-1), Northfield; Cat Call (7-2), Cal Expo; Dani California (4-5), Cal Expo; Nowerland Collins (42-1), Cal Expo; Wardog Hall (16-1), Meadows; Aj Niko D’oro (6-1), Meadows
Thirds
Five Cougars A (3-1), Maywood; Sign The Prenup (5-1), Maywood; Lazy Lizard (10-1), Maywood; Map Of Hawaii (4-1), Freehold; Rocknroll Jewel (19-1), Meadowlands; Mighty Young Joe (4-1), Meadowlands; Red Star Bogart (6-5), Fraser; Tahya Clem C (9-1), Fraser; Future Plans (3-1), Pompano; Scootin Jetta (2-1), Northfield; Friskie D (6-5), Northfield; Herzon (20-1), Cal Expo
Five Cougars A (3-1), Maywood; Sign The Prenup (5-1), Maywood; Lazy Lizard (10-1), Maywood; Map Of Hawaii (4-1), Freehold; Rocknroll Jewel (19-1), Meadowlands; Mighty Young Joe (4-1), Meadowlands; Red Star Bogart (6-5), Fraser; Tahya Clem C (9-1), Fraser; Future Plans (3-1), Pompano; Scootin Jetta (2-1), Northfield; Friskie D (6-5), Northfield; Herzon (20-1), Cal Expo
All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will
be in the Thursday blog.
On Jan. 17, driver Ron Pierce won seven races in the Dover Downs program. However, with only one price in the double digits, and that only at 4-1, Pierce fans won only a few dollars from his spree. Pierce lost on the horses he drove with the longer odds that day and although he was a modest flat-bet profit, wagering on him solely due to his presence is not a smart idea.
Speaking of drivers, Matt Kakaley began the 2013 season at Yonkers with a blast. Working for trainer Ron Burke, Kakaley, formerly a mainstay in Ohio, Matt won 10 of his first 39 drives, taking the lead in the standings over Brian Sears, who recently made his headquarters at the New York oval over regular appearances at the new Meadowlands.
Kakaley has not made Yonkers his home; he is a top regular at Pocono Downs, which doesn’t open until March 23. Matt says he will return to Pennsylvania unless Burke makes him an offer worthy of staying in New York. Burke has been quoted saying, “I want to try to assign Matt some of the younger horses this year … He will be their regular driver … Yannick [Gingras] has other commitments in stakes races. I am going to try to give Matt the opportunity to drive better horses because I think he has earned it.”
Kakaley is the youngest driver ever to reach the 2,000-win plateau. He is 23.
The 2013 stake schedules for Illinois harness tracks Balmoral and Maywood have been released by racing secretary Doc Narotsky.
Upstate mile Balmoral begins its high-profile affairs on March 30 with the Taurus Bomber Stake for Illinois conceived and foaled (ICF) three-year-old pacing colts. Maywood’s stake season starts April 12 with soph-pacing colts in the Sportsmaster Stake.
The first major state-bred stake of the season is May 19’s race for three-year-old pacing fillies, the $45,000 Violet Stake at Balmoral. There will also be Violet and Cardinal stakes for ICF pacers and trotters on May 26, May 29 and June 1 at Balmoral.
Maywood’s first big event will be the $100,000 Filly Maywood Pace for ICF three-year-old fillies on June 14. The $100,000 Maywood Pace for ICF soph-pacing colts will be held June 21.
The first Hanover Stakes of the season at Balmoral will feature a trio of events for three-year-old trotters and three-year-old filly pacers on July 13.
The Southland Festival of Racing will provide plenty of state-bred action at Balmoral on July 27, July 28 and July 31 with pacers and trotters in $50,000 battles like the Mini Me Stake, Loyal Opposition Stake, Incredible Finale Stake, Ann Vonian Stake, Kadabra Stake, Fox Valley Evita Stake, Fox Valley Flan Stake and Plesac Stake.
A pair of $50,000 Hanovers for two-year-old colt and filly pacers are scheduled for Aug. 3 at the upstate oval. Balmoral will also play host to Illinois’ biggest night of racing, Super Night, on Sept. 14 for more than $1 million in purses. The American Nationals kick off on Sept. 18 with a pair of $90,000 trotting stakes for two-year-olds.
October promises to be a busy month for youngsters as the $100,000 Lady Lincoln Stake for two-year-old trotting fillies takes place on Oct. 2 while their male counterparts battle in the $100,000 Lincoln Land Stake on Oct. 6 at Balmoral. Maywood will also host the $60,000 Cardinal and Violet Stakes for two-year-old colt and filly pacers on Oct. 4. A pair of $60,000 Hanovers for two-year-old trotters are also slated for Oct. 13 at Balmoral.
Saturday, Nov. 9 and Friday, Nov. 15 the Grand Circuit action comes to town. Balmoral will play host to the $250,000 three-year-old colt pace, $225,00 American National three-year-old colt trot, $200,000 American National Aged Pace, $180,000 aged trot, $175,000 American National three-year-old filly pace, $150,000 three-year-old filly trot, $125,000 two-year-old colt pace and $125,000 two-year-old filly pace on Nov. 9.
Maywood’s biggest card of the season is Nov. 15 with the $225,000 Windy City Pace for three-year-old pacing colts, the $130,000 Abe Lincoln Stake for two-year-old pacing colts, the $120,00 Galt Trot for three-year-old trotting colts and the $100,000 Cinderella Stake for three-year-old pacing fillies sharing the spotlight. The $30,000 Associates-McKeever Stake for ICF pacers is also scheduled for that same night.
Extraordinary Extras
Here’s a free ride for my column in Hoof Beats (the
analog mag). My January, 2013 column offers a way to become an organized
harness racing investor. Check
it out my clicking here. It’s the featured article of the issue and the
best advice you will get all year about your wagering campaign.
Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats
blog titled Vast
Performances. Every weekend as part of that blog we we offer Balmoral
Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic
Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets. On Saturday, our
first-leg single, Allamerican Solo, won and paid $16.80.
Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute
suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your
TwinSpires accounts.
Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.
Cartoons by Thom Pye