The Greatest Kentucky Derby Champions

In my opinion, the most fascinating thing about sports has nothing to do with the competition or the venue. Sure, those who were in the stands when Babe Ruth allegedly “called his shot” witnessed a historic moment.

The lucky fans that watched Wilt Chamberlain pour in 100 points in an NBA game against the New York Knicks (why am I not surprised the Knicks were involved?) on March 2, 1962, saw a basketball legend at his very best.

But the thrill of sports — at least to me — is not watching a Hall-of-Famer go off on a guy with a career scoring average of 7.2 points per game (PPG), like Darrall Imhoff, who started at center for the Knicks that historic night. To me, the thrill of sports is debating the answer to a simple question: “what if?”

Sid Luckman

What if Chamberlain played a one-on-one game of hoops with Michael Jordan? What if Ruth was stared down by Clayton Kershaw with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning? What if Sid Luckman, the man who pioneered the position of quarterback, faced off with Peyton Manning, the guy who tied Luckman (and others) with seven touchdown passes in a single game? 

NOTE: A Manning-Luckman showdown would have particular appeal to me because Luckman also played defensive back. (No word on whether he gave Sammy Baugh the choke sign or called  Charley Malone  a “mediocre receiver” after the Chicago Bears pounded the Washington Redskins 73-0 in the 1940 NFL title game).

My point here is that the history of sports is what makes them so compelling. After all, without the context that history provides, there can be no greatness. Scoring 100 points in an NBA game is only noteworthy because no one — except Chamberlain — has ever done it.

It was with this in mind that I decided to peruse my database of Kentucky Derby results and present what I believe are the top three greatest performances in Derby history.

Now, anybody who has delved into the history of sports knows that it is not easy to determine greatness by statistics alone.

Things change.

For example, during the 1961-62 season, in which Chamberlain averaged 50.4 PPG, the typical NBA team took 107.7 shots per contest. By the time Jordan was leading the Chicago Bulls to their last title in 1998, teams were attempting just 79.7 shots per game.

Likewise, the racing strip at Churchill Downs, the site of the Kentucky Derby, has changed over the years — making straight time comparisons fruitless. However, as many regular readers know, I have developed my own pace figures, which measure relative speed, so I will be relying heavily on them to make my assessments.

Hence, a quick tutorial is in order:

Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.

-15= Demanding.

-10= Brisk.

  -5= Moderate.

   0= Soft.

Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event. Because late speed is calculated at a time when a horse is being asked for his/her maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well.

   0= Excellent.

  -5= Good.

-10= Fair.

-15= Poor.

Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s LSR and the ESR of the race in which it was earned. Positive profiles are greatly desired.

Note: ESRs and LSRs recorded on turf or all-weather surfaces tend to vary by 5-10 points from those garnered on dirt tracks.

5. NORTHERN DANCER (1964)

In addition to being one of the most influential sires in history, Northern Dancer was a heckuva racehorse. The zero late speed ration he earned in the 1964 Run for the Roses ranks eighth all time and his 2:00 clocking wasn’t surpassed until Secretariat in 1973.

4. MAJESTIC PRINCE (1969)

Although Majestic Prince’s +1 LSR was fourth-best in Derby history, he is probably best known for a race he didn’t win — the Belmont Stakes.

Fearing that “Prince” was injured after he bore out in the stretch of the Preakness, the colt’s trainer Johnny Longden initially decided not to ship to New York. However, after much public pressure — some coming from the horse’s owner Frank McMahon — Longden relented and Majestic Prince finished a badly-beaten second to eventual three-year-old champ Arts and Letters.

Majestic Prince never raced again.

3. OLD ROSEBUD (1914)

Old Rosebud’s zero LSR ranks as the fifth-highest in Kentucky Derby history and the best ever for a wire-to-wire winner of America’s most prestigious horse race. What’s more his final time of 2:03 2/5 set a Derby record that would stand for 16 years.

2. WHIRLAWAY (1941)

Whirlaway had great timing. Not only did he possess a potent late kick, but he knew when to raise his game — which he did on the first Saturday in May of 1941. Not only did Whirlaway win the Derby by eight lengths that day, he also recorded a +1 LSR and set a new track record (2:01-2/5) that wasn’t broken until 1957.

1. SECRETARIAT (1973)

No horse — past, present and probably future — ever had the kind of spring that Secretariat had in 1973. After getting upset by stable mate Angle Light in the Wood Memorial, “Big Red” produced a series of efforts that culminated with a Triple Crown, an Eclipse award for Horse of the Year and a new title: legend.

Secretariat’s 1:59-2/5 clocking remains a Kentucky Derby record and his +3 LSR is tied with His Eminence (1901) for the best ever.

Winter Watch In Progress

This week, again in the throes of the Polar Vortex (unaware at press time if any of the tracks involved in our choices have cancelled), we cover the aptly titled Blizzard Series Final at Woodbine on Jan. 31. It’s an early season highlight as we roll into February. There is plenty of racing this weekend, however, weather permitting, and regardless of the sports’ world’s focus on the Super Bowl on Sunday.

Our overnight events, specially chosen races, present highly probable profit-producing fields and our horses-to-watch (H2W) list, both which have been productive as 2014 heads for its second month. Please note that horses from our featured overnight events the week before appear on the H2W list as second-time members if they did not win when we highlighted their previous race.

’Blizzard’ Conditions

It should come as no surprise that the second leg of this two-leg series for three- and four-year-old filly and mare pacers was raced in a sheet of falling snow so strong that it clouded the call of the races. Now the $34,000 final field leaves the gate at Woodbine on the last night of January, hopefully, as the weather dictates.

The short series has been packed with entries and the first or second favorites have won all but one edition, which was taken by a 4-1 shot. Looking for an outside contender here, however, appears simple. Not one of the choices in all the prelims repeated a victory, so it is possible that one that has been abandoned may be the key. We see that one as Zip Car.

In the second division of leg one Zip Car was sent off a little more than 3-2 and finished second as the public choice. It was a fertile trip as she left, dueled wide, got the top, extended her lead and lost by a mere neck to the second choice at the wire. The next week, in leg two, from post 9 she was sent off at 68-1. She hardly participated in that event and yet she shows up in the final, drawing the outside again. Whatever the strategy her trainer and driver decide to use, she is going to be a factor in this race and the kind of factor that can upset a field that comes to the final with no dominant femme.

Also taking a shot in the final after a few tough trips is Stoneridge Classy. She made a huge brush in the snow, gaining 5 lengths and unable to find the wood afterwards and was MIA with the rest of the group with the snow at the three-quarters. She should play a role in the exotics and is also in a good spot to upset. Together, these two, with forms of success, will storm the toteboard in the Blizzard final.

This week’s overnight offerings:

Northfield
Jan. 31, Race 4

Friskie Pants was active on our H2W list a few back and though he was competitive he didn’t win. However, he comes back to his most successful level of late and goes into the 4 hole while dropping down. He has the kind of speed that can make a front-pacing win possible and he has the ability to sweep and go the distance late. Here he may take the first option and if he makes it we should be looking at a great price.

Northfield
Jan. 31, Race 7

The first two morning-line (ML) choices, coming from posts 1 and 2, will find a challenge from outside-contender Wild Ride. His ML is 15-1 for reasons unexplained to us. This Ontario-bred has made a good home in Ohio and raced lightly towards the end of last year, not doing badly against better horses than this group. Given his probable odds, which may make him the third choice at best, he is the bet here to be on top or close enough to spook the first two choices (certainly the 1 horse), resulting in a firm win price for us.

Meadows
Jan. 31, Race 8

It’s time to play “Beat Palone” again at the Pittsburgh-area track and this is a great race to do it, considering he will be driving the top choice, the ML favorite from post 4, and sucking in the majority of win-mutuel dollars. You may be able to beat the popular driver’s mount with obvious-second-choice D Mac but a better price should be available for Double Dribble. This gelding will go under the betting radar and perform far better than the public allows its chances. You can toss out his sloppy mile dropping into this class and the race before that where he stepped up two levels after winning in the one below this. In other words, he belongs here after his win on Jan. 10 and is positioned to make Palone slayers happy with a great win price. A quick note: Schoolkids, once a viable sophomore in the top level and now eight, is looking for a level to suit him and is, oddly enough, trained by the other Palone, Mike. Don’t hesitate to put this guy in exotics if you are looking for a pumped up price because once he finds a spot he may find it in him to make a few more bucks for his connection before retiring (notice he is a winner of almost $1 million).

H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “AE” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W

Buffalo
1/31/14; Cole Diddy R1; Bagel Man R3; R A’s Shakenbake R5; Green Olives R7; Upfrontoutthedoor R7; Del Cielo R8; Diditagain Hanover R11
2/1/14; Trojan Seelster R1; Yorkster R2; Ricky O Bay R4; Sand Savage R7; Naked News R7; Sundowner Bob R8; Elite R9; Literate Hanover R10

Cal Expo
1/31/14, +Perfect Pitch R8; I’m An Athlete R10; Castle Oaks R13
2/1/14, +Hi Ho Hi Ho R6; Skyway King R10; +Melboy R12; +Big Guy Two Win R12; Hot Cowboy R13; Yank My Missle R14

Charlottetown
2/1/14, +Flag Of Honor R1; +Lexis Mandy R3; +Honeymoonisover R4; +Trustmeonemoretime R5; +Artners In Crime R6; +McMaverick R7; +Bakardi Arti R11;+Capitalism R12

Dover
2/3/14, Cowboy Artist R6

Flamboro
2/1/14, +Sullys Guide—AE—R6; Stonebridge Adore R7; Tigraseelster R7; Anahar Chase R9; NJs Trick Pistol R10

Freehold
1/30/14, +No Tears Here
2/1/14, +Tulfra R2; +Cyclone Cully R11; +Youth Uprising R11

Northfield
1/31/14, Ciro’s Pride R1; Tallerthanwoody R3; Genuine Star R8; Whitewater Delight R10; Oh Whata Guy R12

Meadows
1/31/14, Amazing Quest R4; SJ’s Hottie Won R5; Eddie Sweat R6; Forever Just R10; Dellie’s Jewel R13

Pompano
2/1/14; + Mc Kelvie R2; +Dreamnwillie R7

Western Fair
1/31/14, +Hazy Lady R2; Arnies Kick Start R4

Yonkers
1/31/14; All Star Dragon R4; The Northern Dude R11
2/1/14; Eighteen R2; Safe Harbor R7; Dinner Guest—AE—R7; Lightning Strike R12.

Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.      

Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

Next weekend we cover the end of January and the beginning of February as the claws of winter continue to scratch regions beyond the Polar Vortex. The rough-and-tough standardbreds will be racing as the month turns over.

The weekend that just passed offered some decent winners at decent prices on our horses-to-watch list (H2W). Make sure you check out the across-the-board prices and the exactas included because next week you may decide to back some of your horses to win, to win and place or across the board. After Monday, Jan. 27 all H2W horses from last week’s list will be updated below.

We chose two races from Charottetown Drivers Park for the first time while offering promising plays in overnights and we scored with one of the pair on Jan. 25. Scotian Lass was our first choice in Race 6 and he won, paying $9.90, $5.30 and $2.80. Our other first choice, Honeymoonisover finished third (2.60) at 6-1.

We engaged Dover on Jan. 26, offering Kenzie’s Beach Boy in one event. He finished sixth at a price we could never have predicted, 56-1. Our second Dover event resulted in Stubbs Hanover finishing third ($4.40) at 10-1 and our third choice, Polaris, finished second ($2.60, $2.20), while our second choice was sixth.

Every Wednesday night, TwinSpires’ 10-percent-bonus Buffalo Raceway 50-cent Pick 4 wagers continue. We assist with suggestions for your ticket. For Jan. 22’s exotic, via Twitter -- @FrankCotolo, @TwinSpires and @BuffaloRaceway – we had the highest paying horse of the winning quartet for the second week in a row. We singled Artsy Princess ($13, $7.80, $3.20).

H2W RESULTS

The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed as the winner in the same race (*asterisks note the particular races along with track name). This holds true, also, for trifectas if three H2W horses finish win, place and show.

Winners

Tiger Bait, $15.40, $7.40, $4.80, Cal Expo
Runaway Disirae, $14.10, $5.30, $3.20, Fraser
Traers Hall, $10.80, $5.60, $4.60, Freehold
Trend Spotter, $9, $3.80, $4.20 (ok), Meadows
Bootswiththefur, $6.40, $3.80, $3, Meadows
Lord Terror, $2.60, $2.20, $2.10, Dover

Seconds

Devil’s Embrace N, $8.60, $5, Dover
Red Hot Yankee, $5.80, $3, Pompano
One Last Shot, $3.10, $3, Fraser
Cinderella Smiles, $3, $2.30 (Exacta $12.70), Northlands
Kaya’s Sweetheart, $3, $2.60, Freehold

Thirds

Cyclone Cully, $7.60, Freehold
Branding Party, $4.30, Fraser
Melboy, $3.80, Cal Expo
Tulfra, $3.80, Freehold
PL Dragon, $3.60, Meadows
Too Young Man, $3.50, Northlands
Jolt Of Whiskey, $3, Fraser
Ala Carte Bill, $2.80, Freehold
Arpeggio Hanover, $2.60, Dover


News And Notes

Illinois harness is still under Mother Nature’s spell, with arctic temperatures taking their toll on the young 2014 racing season. Balmoral Park announced delaying two qualifying days, originally scheduled for Jan. 28 to, Jan. 29 as more extreme cold is expected next week. Downstate, Maywood Park will conduct qualifiers on Jan. 30. The first draw for a Feb. 5 start date at Balmoral Park will be held Jan. 31.

Don’t go looking for harness racing at Harrah’s Philadelphia until some serious negotiations are complete. At a meeting of the Pennsylvania Harness Racing Commission this week, the commission suspend harness racing at the racino due to issues with the condition of the racetrack. According to several reports, the commission took the action following complaints about the condition of the track’s surface, ignited after a terrible spill in November that severely injured driver Anthony Coletto. The track was scheduled to resume racing in early March.

A monumental agreement between United States and French standardbred industries has been signed. USA representatives Joe Faraldo, Alex Dadoyan, Tim Rooney, Sr. and his son, Tim, Jr., were in France to negotiate details of a breeding, wagering and simulcasting agreement between the countries’ racing officials. The agreement was signed on Jan. 25.

In addition to a breeding agreement, the two sides will work toward establishing a calendar of simulcasting of and wagering on Yonkers Raceway races in France and French races into the U.S. by the end of 2014. Faraldo called the deal’s completion “an historic, monumental agreement … the predicate for international simulcasting into Europe and a move forward to more global simulcasting of U.S. harness racing.” There is little history of cooperation between France (the country that created pari-mutuel racing) and the U.S. beyond the institution of a few celebrated races.

The French breeding book has been closed to American stock for more than a century. Things have certainly changed. The French have also made agreements with Slovenia and Ireland. After the agreement was settled, Dominique de Bellaigue, the French representative, said, “These agreements will help our respective countries build upon a foundation to the expansion of international simulcasting.”

All of the countries involved, of course, are suffering from a poor business atmosphere. Racing is in a global depression compared to its state prior to the digital revolution. Although the new technology has been embraced by the industry all over the world, rebuilding has been necessary to attain a new generation of supporters.

Extraordinary Extras

Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

Cartoons by Thom Pye 

Bogus Bias

John F. Kennedy once said that too often we “enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

Clearly, President Kennedy was talking about track biases. For few other subjects evoke as much hyperbole and outright nonsense than the notion of a track bias, a term popularized by Steve Davidowitz in “Betting Thoroughbreds.”

According to Davidowitz, “Every racetrack has its peculiarities. Some are small in circumference, some have pasteboard-hard running surfaces, some card races that place a premium on early speed or post position.

“And nothing can help to change or create a bias as effectively as a shift in weather conditions. A sudden rainstorm is odds-on to force a premium on early speed. On the other hand, a few days of rain, a sudden frost, or extreme heat can have totally unpredictable effects.”

In order to spot a track bias, Davidowitz advises players to do four things:

1. Watch the turns.

2. Watch the break from the gate.

3. Watch the run to the first turn (especially in route races).

4. Watch the top jockeys.

If this is not possible, Davidowitz adds that a “careful reading” of the results charts can also lead to the discovery of a track bias.

Given this ambiguity, it is easy to see why “track bias” has become the modern-day equivalent of “cry wolf.” Tell people to search for something, especially something hard to define, and, by golly, they’ll find it!

In fact, I got a chuckle out of the reactions to an article written by Daily Racing Form columnist Mike Watchmaker entitled “Talking Track Bias,” in which Watchmaker dared to say there was no speed bias on Belmont Stakes Day this past June.

Those commenting on the piece couldn’t seem to agree on what a speed bias is, much less whether or not one existed:

“Mr. Watchmaker fails to mention days when speed wins almost every race and other days where a front runner can't [find] the winner’s circle. This holds true for turf courses as well and, in both cases, certain racetracks are conformed and constituted in such a way as to favor a particular type of runner. … One of the reasons this wonderful sport has not caught on as well with later generations is the repetitive sight of wire-to-wire winners.”

“… Go watch where all the winning closers came from, at least 5 to 6 lanes out. Watch how many horses two lanes in were getting caught.”

“Yes, there was a bias. Orb's trainer said as much when he compared the surfaces between Churchill and Belmont. One was like a springboard, the other was looser and sandier.”

“Bias is such a big and important topic that it may be worth writing a book about. Right off the bat most people confuse rail bias with speed bias. A hot rail is caused by track maintenance moving dirt away from the rail in anticipation of bad weather (because they can't grade a muddy track, and the rain, due to the slope of the track, will gradually move dirt from the outside to the inside). The thinner surface at the rail makes it fast. Usually people call this a speed bias, because the horses up front have the inside path, but a closer can win on it just as easily.”

“Most of [the] horses that closed were horses with speed except, I believe, one race — if my memory is correct.”

“You have to know if horses are holding on much deeper into races than you thought they had a right to if everything was equal, or that horses aren’t making the late moves you figured they should have.”

“There was something a little different about Belmont on Saturday. I initially picked Golden Soul on top, but after watching three dirt races, you can see that front runners and stalkers were holding on all the way to the end. Closers weren't even plodding up for show money.”

Well, that’s as clear as mud. So maybe the track was biased on Belmont Stakes Day, maybe it wasn’t — kind of like how I “may have won” a million dollars from Publisher’s Clearing House?

Of course, I've heard the same gobbledygook from those who believed that Princess of Sylmar was done in by a “speed-favoring” track at Santa Anita in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The fact that Princess of Sylmar was beaten by a whopping 16 ¼ lengths in the Distaff is overlooked by the bias boosters. The fact that Royal Delta, the champion mare “Princess” edged in the Beldame, was actually closer to the pace than Beholder in the Distaff? Summarily dismissed.

Instead, those who cry bias point to Goldencents, the impressive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

A Facebook friend of mine summed up the feelings I know many share regarding the speedy colt when he noted that Goldencents’ triumph on Breeders’ Cup Day “made perfect sense, but not after being hung out wide and running a savage pace.

“Yet he kept going. The track carried him. Even if he tired a bit despite the bias it would have [been] understandable after that pace and trip. When he came back on a honest track, he could not duplicate that huge race.”

True, in the Cigar Mile 29 days later, Goldencents finished a well-beaten seventh. However, that’s not the whole story. What my friend didn’t say is that Goldencents was bumped hard at the break of that race and, consequently, was third at the opening call.

(Click on image to enlarge)

This is of no small consequence, as Goldencents has never won when he’s been worse than second at the first call. In fact, the son of Into Mischief is 0-for-4 in such instances. He is 2-for-4 when running second at the opening call and 3-for-5 when leading.

Bias? I think not.

Something tells me JFK would agree with me.

Opus Overnight

News reports about sagging jet streams and frigid weather ensue as we head for the penultimate weekend in January. Even if the climate was tepid, however, there would still be the seasonal lack of feature races in the standardbred community. However, from coast to coast raceways are brewing up a slew of overnight events to keep us harness bettors investing.

Once again, then, we concentrate on overnight events with a few specially chosen races (this week we venture to different tracks than the last few weeks because value is present throughout the pari-mutuel world) and our horses-to-watch (H2W) list, both which have been productive as 2014 heads for its second month.

This week’s overnight offerings:

Charlottetown
Jan. 25, Race 3

Honeymoonisover returns to this conditioned trot after two failed Open appearances. She has faired well at this level and once was the dead-on choice. The program choice, the mare leaving to her right, has won at this level but may be sorely over-bet, giving Honeymoonisover a clear shot at winning as an overlay. Incredible Her Bee has every right to race well from the inside and should play a big role in the exotics’ results.

Charlottetown
Jan. 25, Race 6

The crowd may be mistaken if they buy into the morning-line (ML) chances of Scotian Lass in this conditioned pace. Two excuses accompany her recent efforts at a higher level while three back and four back she was competitive after winning as a big choice while dropping into a lower class. She hovers at this range, though, and could very well present an outsider’s victory if she can out-step Hornswoggle, the second ML choice that drops after disappointing with big chances to win. Lexis Mandy could be the element that inflates exotic prices.

Dover
Jan. 26, Race 6

You can go out on a limb for this one with a possible longshot contender for a few reasons. First, the ML choices, all three, are not glowing prospects for a win. Next, they are spread out from the inside to the outside and third, they all look like they will battle for control of the pace. This leaves us with Kenzie’s Beach Boy. We have no doubt he will offer a price, considering his 59-1 failure after qualifying upon his arrival from Philadelphia. But while there, he raced some good miles, even if they ended poorly. He also steps down into this condition and has nothing to do but improve. These are the kinds of big-priced horses we adore because they are poised to wake up and when we get them in a situation where few to none address them as contenders, they are super scores.

Dover
Jan. 26, Race 11

Stubbs Hanover has a fine shot at the two horses inside of him that should get all the win money. He was in a crowd, only 4 lengths off of the winner in this company last week, leaving slowly from the outside. Before that he was on the move big time when he was bothered enough to break and lose all chance of competing past three-quarters. He won a $20G claimer as the 2-1 choice three back and that group was arguably as good, if not better, than this one. As a key overlay, also, a trifecta with SB Mikes Hot Beach and Polaris N could come back big balloons, as they used to say.


H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “AE” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W

Cal Expo
1/24/14, +Twentyone Guns R4; +Plum Crazy Baby R10; +Dragons Wall R11
1/25/14, Hi Ho Hi Ho R6; Tiger Bait R7; +All Is Lost R10; Melboy R11; Big Guy Two Win R11; +Energy Angle R13

Charlottetown
1/25/14, Trustmeonemoretime R1; Flag Of Honor R2; McMaverick R7; Artners In Crime R8; Capitalism R10; Bakardi Arti R13

Dover
1/26/14, DVC Jazzy Jolt R5; Arpeggio Hanover R7; Lord Terror R10; Devils Embrace N R12

Flamboro
1/26/14, +Modern Image R10

Frasier
1/24/14; +Runaway Disirae R4; +Pureform Sydthekid R4
1/26/14, +I Hear Voices R4; +Branding Party R5; +Mmmmmh R7; Jolt Of Whiskey R9; +One Last Shot R11;

Freehold
1/23/14, Mr Salming R4; +Hagi R4; +Ala Carte Bill R8; +Kaya’s Sweetheart R9
1/25/14, Tulfra R1; Travvers Hall R2; Cyclone Cully R2; +No Tears Here—AE—R3; +Major Bet R4; Youth Uprising R11

Northlands
1/24/14; +Too Young Man R7; Cinderella Smiles R8
1/26/14; +Smooth Criminal R10; +Man Alive R11; Little Bit Faster R11

 Meadows
1/24/14, +PL Dragon R3; +Bootswiththefur R4; +Mattachardle R6; +Trend Spotter R6; Hall Of Memories R12

Monticello
1/23/14, Flower Girl Charis R4
1/27/14, +Day To Fay R2; Eng-amer Davanti R2; +Lightning Madison R4

Pompano
1/18/14; +Ding Dong Boy R1; +Mai Tai Guy—AE—R1; +Just Fred R2; Flight Exec R3; +Oh My Joepa R4; Red Hot Yankee R5; Mc Kelvie R6; +Odd Man Out—AE—R10

Western Fair
1/24/14, +Flip Top R8 

Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.      

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 01/22 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts

In the News & Notes segment, Derek Simon and Ed DeRosa recap the Eclipse Awards and discuss the new reality show "Horseplayers."

In the U. of Bet segment, Derek and Dave Schwartz give their opinions on what constitutes a track bias, how one can be spotted and, most importantly, what to do about it.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 01/22 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts

Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

Our horses-to-watch list (H2W) was the source of the week’s most successes. Make sure you check out the across-the-board prices and the exactas included because next week you may decide to back some of your horses to win, to win and place or across the board. Certainly some of the place and show prices have been exceptional and offer a profit from support beyond playing to win.

After Monday, Jan. 20’s Monticello program, any H2W horses from last week’s list will be updated below.

We had a winner in one of the two Super Bowl Series affairs at the Meadowlands on Jan. 16. Clementine Dream won her way into the final, paying $9, $5 and $3.80. In the first leg, we expected Connie Keeper to be a certified longshot but did not imagine the public letter her go at 213-1. The favorite won the division but Connie Keeper’s fourth-place finish, though in no way profitable, was a very good finish considering her odds.

She raced better than our first overnight choice from the Meadows on Jan. 17. Four Starz Kyle was seventh at 7-1. The second suggested race found our contender, PL Dragon, go off at 2-1 and finish third while our second choice in that race, Hall Of Memories finished sixth at 34-1.

TwinSpires’ 10-percent-bonus Buffalo Raceway 50-cent Pick 4 wagers continue on Wednesdays and we hope once again to assist in suggestions you may add to your Jan. 22 ticket. For Jan. 15’s exotic, via Twitter -- @FrankCotolo, @TwinSpires and @BuffaloRaceway – we came through with the highest paying horse of the winning quartet, Carlina Hanover ($10.80, $4.80, $3.70). The other three finishers were strong public choices, resulting in a Pick-4 payoff of $178.50.


H2W RESULTS

The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed as the winner in the same race (*asterisks note the particular races along with track name). This holds true, also, for trifectas if three H2W horses finish win, place and show.

Winners

Knuckles, $28.10, $5.80, $3.90, Western Fair
Hillcrest Romeo, $17.20, $6.40, $3.80, Cal Expo
Beach Hero, $15.40, $5.20, $4.20, Western Fair
Nazko Tribute, $14, $5.70, $4.50, Fraser
(entry) Panic At The Disco, $11.20, $4.40, $2.80, Fraser
KG Cody, $10.40, $4.30, $3.20, Northlands
Poorlittlerichgirl, $7.80, $3.20, $2.60, Cal Expo
Lookinforadventure, $5.40, $2.60, $2.10, Meadows
Latino Hall, $4.80, $3.80, $3, Fraser
Wattafine Rythem, $4.80, $2.90, $2.40, Western Fair
Smooth Criminal, $4.40, $2.90 (no show wagering), Northlands
Live A Little, $4.20, $3, $2.20, Cal Expo

Seconds

Sunny Bee, $12.60, $5, Northlands
Karets, $10.20, $5.80 (Exacta, $38.20), Meadows
Shiny Mach, $9.50, $7.90, Flamboro
Kayla's Dream, $8.20, $3.80 (Exacta, $37.80), Pompano
One Last Shot, $3.30, $2.90 (Exacta, $11.80), Fraser
Just Fred, $3.20, $2.10, Pompano
Plum Crazy Baby, $2.80, $2.40, Cal Expo

Thirds

Pureform Dreamer, $12.20, Fraser
Twentyone Guns, $6.40, Cal Expo
Westridge Warrior, $6.30, Fraser
Somethinsgoinon, $5.80, Fraser
Rock Allstar, $4.10, Fraser
Mmmmmh, $3.50, Fraser
Stilleto Hall, $3.50, Fraser
Cheytenne Ford, $2.70, Western Fair
Mattacardle, $2.60, Meadows
Real Pretty, $2.40, Northlands
Red Hot Yankee, $2.40, Pompano
Dragons Wall, $2.10, Cal Expo
Flight Exec, $2.10, Pompano


News And Notes

At age 72, driver Walter Layfield, Jr. has been driving harness horses or more than five decades. He has not been active for several years and then he has hooked up with trainer Richard Lewis at Dover Downs and the team is proving to be successful. Layfield has driven more than a dozen Lewis-trained horses at Dover’s current meet and has posted four winners.

Meanwhile at Dover, youthful Tyler Davis is winning races at age 21. His dad is Allan Davis, second in the current driver standings, and his grandfather is Eddie Davis, the all-time leading race winning driver in the Middle Atlantic region. The third generation driver, Davis, won his third race of the season on Jan. 8, piloting a 32-1 shot.

Nationally, Dave Palone, was named HTA Driver of the Year. It’s the seventh time Palone has won or shared the honor based on raw number of wins, money won from them and Universal Driver Ratings (similar to a battling average) percentage. On the point tabulation, Palone had a rating of 85.5. Yannick Gingras is runner-up at 83.5. Next in order were Tim Tetrick, Brian Sears and George Napolitano. The award has nothing to do with bettors profiting from bets connected to the driver.

The 2014 Breeders Crown is scheduled to take place at The Meadowlands and will be raced over two nights in November. The events will be divided into a four-race block of distaff races on Friday, Nov. 21 and the remaining eight on Saturday, Nov. 22. The $500,000 Breeders Crown Trot and Pace for three-year-old fillies and a pair of $250,000 “Crowns” for Mare pacers and trotters go on Friday night. All four $500,000 Two-Year-Old events, the $500,000 sophomore colt pace and trot and the $400,000 Pace and $500,000 Trot will be raced on Saturday night.

Tom Charters, president of The Hambletonian Society, which owns and administrates the Breeders Crown series, said, “The Breeders Crown has been conducted in just about every format, single races, blocks of races, all twelve races on one night, and we try always to be sensitive to host track parameters while still getting the most bang out of the event in regard to publicity, TV and promotions. The Meadowlands has been home to many of harness racing's most important events over the past 30 years. We look forward to the return of the Breeders Crown under Jeff Gural's management and especially look forward to the new facility. The one-mile oval in East Rutherford, New Jersey, has hosted 67 Breeders Crown races, more than any other racetrack and in 2014 will celebrate 30 years of Breeders Crown history. TwinSpires hopes to be reporting live both nights with special attractions for account-holders.

Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) announced the dates for their 2014 stakes season, which includes a new twist where all of the finalists in the stakes events will receive a percentage of the purse. In addition there will no longer be byes issued for stake events. The 31st edition of the Pepsi North America Cup will offer a guaranteed purse of $1 million on Saturday, June 14 at Mohawk. The continent’s finest three year-old pacers will line up behind the gate, with eliminations scheduled the week prior on June 7.

The lucrative June 14 card offers a showcase for the continent’s best horses across several divisions, including the $400,000 Fan Hanover for three-year-old pacing fillies, the $325,000 Roses Are Red for older pacing mares, the $270,000 Armbro Flight for trotting mares, the $225,000 Goodtimes for sophomore trotting colts and the $100,000 Gold Cup for older pacing horses.
Mohawk will once again play host to some of North America’s most prestigious Grand Circuit events. On July 19, the $550,000 Maple Leaf Trot, for older trotters, will be offered for a 62nd time. The $685,000 Metro Pace for two year-old pacing colts is set for Saturday, Aug. 30. Co-featured on the rich Labor Day weekend card are the $650,000 Canadian Pacing Derby for older pacers and the $450,000 Shes A Great Lady Stakes for juvenile pacing fillies. The Canadian Trotting Classic, for three year-old colt trotters, will go on Saturday, Sept. 13 for a purse of $685,000.  The $375,000 Peaceful Way final for two year-old trotting fillies, the $365,000 William Wellwood Memorial for two-year-old trotting colts and the $365,000 Elegantimage, for three-year-old filly trotters, are also featured on the mid-September weekend.

The Grand Circuit stakes return to Woodbine for its Fall meet in October. The $1.9-million Fall Four (Goldsmith Maid, Three Diamonds, Valley Victory and Governor’s Cup), will be contested on Saturday, Oct. 25.

Also in 2014, all finishers in the stakes finals will earn purse money. The winner will continue to receive the traditional 50 percent of the total purse, while those sixth through last receive 1 percent each. Those finishing second through fifth will receive 24-16-10 percent, respectively, of the remaining purse after first and sixth through 10th are paid. Plus, if 11 horses or fewer declare to start in a stakes series, there will be no eliminations and all declared horses advance directly to the final. Byes will no longer be issued in stakes events.

News And Notes

At age 72, driver Walter Layfield, Jr. has been driving harness horses or more than five decades. He has not been active for several years and then he has hooked up with trainer Richard Lewis at Dover Downs and the team is proving to be successful. Layfield has driven more than a dozen Lewis-trained horses at Dover’s current meet and has posted four winners.

Meanwhile at Dover, youthful Tyler Davis is winning races at age 21. His dad is Allan Davis, second in the current driver standings, and his grandfather is Eddie Davis, the all-time leading race winning driver in the Middle Atlantic region. The third generation driver, Davis, won his third race of the season on Jan. 8, piloting a 32-1 shot.

Nationally, Dave Palone, was named HTA Driver of the Year. It’s the seventh time Palone has won or shared the honor based on raw number of wins, money won from them and Universal Driver Ratings (similar to a battling average) percentage. On the point tabulation, Palone had a rating of 85.5. Yannick Gingras is runner-up at 83.5. Next in order were Tim Tetrick, Brian Sears and George Napolitano. The award has nothing to do with bettors profiting from bets connected to the driver.

The 2014 Breeders Crown is scheduled to take place at The Meadowlands and will be raced over two nights in November. The events will be divided into a four-race block of distaff races on Friday, Nov. 21 and the remaining eight on Saturday, Nov. 22. The $500,000 Breeders Crown Trot and Pace for three-year-old fillies and a pair of $250,000 “Crowns” for Mare pacers and trotters go on Friday night. All four $500,000 Two-Year-Old events, the $500,000 sophomore colt pace and trot and the $400,000 Pace and $500,000 Trot will be raced on Saturday night.

Tom Charters, president of The Hambletonian Society, which owns and administrates the Breeders Crown series, said, “The Breeders Crown has been conducted in just about every format, single races, blocks of races, all twelve races on one night, and we try always to be sensitive to host track parameters while still getting the most bang out of the event in regard to publicity, TV and promotions. The Meadowlands has been home to many of harness racing's most important events over the past 30 years. We look forward to the return of the Breeders Crown under Jeff Gural's management and especially look forward to the new facility. The one-mile oval in East Rutherford, New Jersey, has hosted 67 Breeders Crown races, more than any other racetrack and in 2014 will celebrate 30 years of Breeders Crown history. TwinSpires hopes to be reporting live both nights with special attractions for account-holders.

Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) announced the dates for their 2014 stakes season, which includes a new twist where all of the finalists in the stakes events will receive a percentage of the purse. In addition there will no longer be byes issued for stake events. The 31st edition of the Pepsi North America Cup will offer a guaranteed purse of $1 million on Saturday, June 14 at Mohawk. The continent’s finest three year-old pacers will line up behind the gate, with eliminations scheduled the week prior on June 7.

The lucrative June 14 card offers a showcase for the continent’s best horses across several divisions, including the $400,000 Fan Hanover for three-year-old pacing fillies, the $325,000 Roses Are Red for older pacing mares, the $270,000 Armbro Flight for trotting mares, the $225,000 Goodtimes for sophomore trotting colts and the $100,000 Gold Cup for older pacing horses.
Mohawk will once again play host to some of North America’s most prestigious Grand Circuit events. On July 19, the $550,000 Maple Leaf Trot, for older trotters, will be offered for a 62nd time. The $685,000 Metro Pace for two year-old pacing colts is set for Saturday, Aug. 30. Co-featured on the rich Labor Day weekend card are the $650,000 Canadian Pacing Derby for older pacers and the $450,000 Shes A Great Lady Stakes for juvenile pacing fillies. The Canadian Trotting Classic, for three year-old colt trotters, will go on Saturday, Sept. 13 for a purse of $685,000.  The $375,000 Peaceful Way final for two year-old trotting fillies, the $365,000 William Wellwood Memorial for two-year-old trotting colts and the $365,000 Elegantimage, for three-year-old filly trotters, are also featured on the mid-September weekend.

The Grand Circuit stakes return to Woodbine for its Fall meet in October. The $1.9-million Fall Four (Goldsmith Maid, Three Diamonds, Valley Victory and Governor’s Cup), will be contested on Saturday, Oct. 25.

Also in 2014, all finishers in the stakes finals will earn purse money. The winner will continue to receive the traditional 50 percent of the total purse, while those sixth through last receive 1 percent each. Those finishing second through fifth will receive 24-16-10 percent, respectively, of the remaining purse after first and sixth through 10th are paid. Plus, if 11 horses or fewer declare to start in a stakes series, there will be no eliminations and all declared horses advance directly to the final. Byes will no longer be issued in stakes events.

Extraordinary Extras

Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.

Cartoons by Thom Pye