Showing posts with label Chantal Sutherland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chantal Sutherland. Show all posts

  • 2012 Breeders' Cup: What We Learned

    POSTED Nov 9, 2012 By Derek Simon

    Wise Dan (courtesy of Bloodhorse)
    For months, the anticipation builds. Every impressive winner instantly becomes a Breeders’ Cup candidate; every race becomes a prep for the big event.

    Then, faster than one can peruse the “skills” section of Kim Kardashian’s resume, the Breeders’ Cup is over.

    And that is when the real fun begins. That is when the handwringing starts and the whining over terrible trips continues; when both the gloating and the grousing match the resonance frequency of insanity; when I offer my final observations of Breeders’ Cup 2012. 

    So let's get to it...

    JUVENILE SPRINT

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    Hightail – D. Wayne Lukas’ charge was a maiden entering the Juvenile Sprint and a Breeders’ Cup winner after it. True, the Brisnet speed figure (97) was nothing to get the pulse racing, but the -4 late speed ration (LSR) that the son of Mineshaft was the best such dirt number over the course of the entire BC weekend.

    Merit Man – Although he lost at odds of 1-2, Merit Man gave me the impression that, despite his breeding, he might actually enjoy more ground, as he earned a positive pace profile in the Juvenile Sprint.

    JUVENILE FILLIES

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    Beholder – Not sure Beholder’s reputation was enhanced by her 1-length score in the Juvenile Fillies, but she sure didn’t harm it any. Not only did the daughter of Henny Hughes show she could motor early (-11 ESR), she also demonstrated she could finish OK (-10 LSR).

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    Executiveprivilege – This gal had every chance to run down the winner and simply couldn’t do it. She deserves a shot to redeem herself, of course, but I doubt redemption was on the docket when she went to post as the 3-2 favorite in the Juvenile Fillies.

    Dreaming of Julia – Her LSRs have been poor in general and this race (-15) was no exception. On the plus side, the Todd Pletcher trainee did come from further off the pace than usual.

    Kauai Katie – Ran reasonably fast early (-9) ESR, but backed up like a single toilet at a chili cook-off (-17 LSR).

    FILLY & MARE TURF

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    Zagora – Mare was 1-for-5 in Grade I company prior to annexing the Filly & Mare Turf, but appears to be getting better with age. She recorded a 98 Brisnet speed figure and +4 LSR in her BC win.

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    Nahrain – Second in the 2011 edition of this race, Nahrain never ran a step this year, finishing 10th, beaten by 6 ½ lengths.

    LADIES CLASSIC

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    Mike Smith – Contrary to popular opinion, I think Smith’s decision to put Royal Delta on the lead was brilliant.

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    Grace Hall – Although I think her nine-length defeat can be explained (she just regressed), Grace Hall certainly looked like the equine version of Mr. Hyde in the Ladies Classic.

    Awesome Feather – From undefeated to awful in one race; reminiscent of Royal Delta in the Suncoast Stakes last year.

    FILLY & MARE SPRINT

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    The entire field outside of Groupie Doll – I know I’ll probably get some flak for saying this, but, impressive as she’s been, I’m just not convinced that Groupie Doll has been beating much. In the Filly & Mare Sprint every horse excluding the winner recorded a “poor” LSR (-15 or less), yet the race ESR (pace) was just a -5. Turbulent Descent looks like her best days are behind her; Switch is a shell of her former self…

    To me, the F&M Sprint was simply a case of a good horse beating a bunch of bad horses.

    DIRT MILE

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    Tapizar – If Grace Hall was this year’s Mr. Hyde, this guy was Dr. Jekyll. After getting smoked in the Grade II Kelso — the worst defeat of his career in terms of beaten lengths (20 ¾) — Tapizar rebounded like Dennis Rodman in the Dirt Mile, scoring by 2 ¼ lengths and recording an excellent -4 LSR.

    Rail Trip – There’s life in those seven-year-old legs after all.

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    Fed Biz – I liked this guy and he ran like the contents of a litter box.

    JUVENILE

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    Shanghai Bobby – Son of Harlan’s Holiday made Hansen’s victory in 2011 look like Secretariat’s Belmont. Yeah, “Bobby” went (very) fast early (-16 ESR), but he finished like Detroit Tigers. Can he win the Derby in 2013? Maybe the Pennsylvania Derby, like his daddy, but that one in Kentucky could be a bit of a problem unless he improves drastically over the winter.

    Power Broker – The -22 LSR he earned in this race says it all.

    TURF

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    Little Mike – He can rate going a distance of ground. Who knew?

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    Dullahan – Ran true to his name, finishing 9th with a -6 LSR.

    SPRINT

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    Trinniberg – One of the few big-priced winners that I really liked. This son of Teufelsberg showed he could rate off the pace — something he was unable to do earlier in the year — in his final prep at Parx and did so again in the Sprint, allowing Sum of the Parts to lead after a quarter-mile in :21-2/5. If he stays in training I expect he’ll have a say in the 2013 BC Sprint as well.

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    Amazombie – Ran like one. The 7-2 favorite after winning last year’s Sprint, Amazombie was never a factor last weekend.

    MILE

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    Wise Dan – Showed why many believe he should be Horse of the Year. Facing a field that included top Euro imports Excelebration and Moonlight Cloud, Wise Dan pulled away with ease to win by 1 ½ lengths at the wire.

    Animal Kingdom – Ran much better than I expected and covered nine furlongs more than Wise Dan did according to Trakus (actually, I’m not sure if it was that much more, but to hear some folks tell it, it was close). Look, I don’t think the ground that Animal Kingdom lost was the decisive factor in last Saturday’s Mile, but it certainly didn’t help his chances.

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    Moonlight Cloud – Didn’t exactly flatter Black Caviar, did she?

    CLASSIC

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    Fort Larned – This fella is much better than he’s given credit for. Not only was the 114 Brisnet speed figure he earned in the Classic the best among all BC winners, his -5 LSR was very good as well.

    Mucho Macho Man – Raced off of a layoff and performed admirably, finishing second, 6 ½ lengths clear of the third-place finisher Flat Out.

    Chantal Sutherland – If you thought Sutherland’s ride on Game On Dude in the Pacific Classic was bad, it looked like pure genius next to Rafael Bejarano’s effort on that same horse in the BC Classic — at least if you listened to Bob Baffert after the race.

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    Game On Dude – The “Dude” may have abided, but he certainly didn’t run last weekend. After a slight bobble at the start, Bob Baffert’s stable star was the very definition of a non-factor in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup finale.

    To Honor And Serve – Neither honored nor served bettors anything other than massive disappointment in the Classic.

    Alpha – I can’t wait to see this horse next year… he should be finishing the Classic by February 2nd if my calculations are correct.


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    Weekend Win Factor Report 'Weak Favorites'
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  • A Big Blunder and Three Big Derby Preps

    POSTED Apr 5, 2012 By Derek Simon
    On Oct. 14, 2001, a 24-year-old quarterback making his third NFL start was struggling. His team was 1-3 and had just lost the lead to the visiting San Diego Chargers, a sorry squad of rookies and rejects that had finished a woeful 1-15 the previous season.

    After misfiring on nine of his first 15 pass attempts, it was clear to many that the University of Michigan grad had reached a make-it-or-break-it point in his career. He had failed to throw a touchdown pass in either of his first two starts and entered the Chargers game with a lowly 67.9 quarterback rating. By way of comparison, Tim Tebow — a guy all the experts say can’t hit the side of a barn with a grenade, much less a football — recorded a 93.4 QB rating in his first couple of games as a starter.

    But our valiant hero refused to go down without a fight. He completed 27 of his last 39 tosses for 301 yards and led his team to an overtime victory, despite trailing by 10 points with 3:39 left to play in the fourth quarter.

    If you haven’t already guessed, that quarterback’s name is Tom Brady and, since that monumental come-from-behind victory, the New England Patriots’ superstar has accumulated a record of 136-40 as a starter, including two Super Bowl wins.

    Sadly, jockey Chantal Sutherland is no Tom Brady.

    In what I speculated may have been a career-defining ride in last weekend’s Dubai World Cup, Sutherland dropped the ball… screwed up… fumbled… struck out — pick your favorite analogy.

    Riding Game On Dude, one of the pre-race favorites and a horse that had given Sutherland perhaps her biggest career victory in the 2011 Santa Anita Handicap, the 36-year-old Canadian rider did the inexplicable. Instead of establishing a forward position in the early going — Game On Dude has been first or second at the first call in 12 of his 13 races for trainer Bob Baffert — Sutherland allowed the five-year-old gelding to saunter out of the gate, taking him out of his game and forcing the son of BC Classic winner Awesome Again to go extremely wide on the turn for home.



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    The first quarter of the $10 million World Cup was run in 25.72 seconds and Game On Dude was three lengths behind the leader, Transcend. Even allowing for the fact that the timer starts when the gates are sprung at Meydan Racecourse (most tracks have a run-up distance before the clock starts ticking), 25.72 seconds is slow... like cast-of-the -“Jersey Shore” slow.

    Hence, there was absolutely no excuse for Sutherland to be in the position she was. And her passivity put her and her mount squarely behind the 8-ball when Transcend — quite predictably, I might add — accelerated over the next two furlongs while carving out a :49.94 opening half-mile (+3 early speed ration).

    Whether she’ll retain the mount on Game On Dude remains to be seen, but one thing seems abundantly clear: Sutherland is not yet ready for the big time.

    The Fantastic Three



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    Three of the biggest Kentucky Derby preps — the Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby — are slated for this weekend. Below is a brief look at each:

    Wood Memorial

    ALPHA and GEMOLOGIST figure to vie for favoritism, but based on what I’ve seen from STREET LIFE so far, he’s the horse to beat. After coming from the clouds to break his maiden on Feb. 11, the son of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense made his next start in the $75,000 Broad Brush Stakes and, again, closed like his papa to win going away — earning a 95 Brisnet speed figure (the Wood par is 107) and 0 late speed ration (LSR) in the process.

    Illinois Derby

    A number of horses could win this event, but two in particular intrigue me: OUR ENTOURAGE and MORGAN’S GUERRILLA. The latter improved both his ESR and LSR last time and appears to have enough early zip to dictate the pace in a race known to be kind to frontrunners. The former switches back to the main track after a scintillating win (95 Brisnet speed figure, +3 LSR) on the green.

    Santa Anita Derby

    Obviously CREATIVE CAUSE is the one to beat, but I’m intrigued by LONGVIEW DRIVE, who I think has a lot of talent and could rebound from a very dull effort in the weaker division of the Southwest Stakes.

    Free Handicapping Reports

    04/06/12 Keeneland Win Factor Report
    04/07/12 Aqueduct Win Factor Report
    04/07/12 Aqueduct Pace Profile Report (races 3, 6-10)
    04/07/12 Hawthorne Pace Profile Report (races 1, 8-9)
    04/07/12 Parx Racing Win Factor Report
    04/07/12 Santa Anita Park Win Factor Report
    04/07/12 Simulcast Win Factor Report (various tracks and races)

    Keeneland Opens

    Live racing is scheduled to return to Keeneland Racecourse on Friday, April 6, so I decided to scour that track’s outstanding PolyCapping Database in search of some betting gold nuggets.

    Here’s what I found:

    * Favorites that last worked out over the Keeneland strip have won 72, or 44.4 percent, of the 162 maiden special weight (MSW) sprint races (less than a mile) carded since 2006 — good for an ROI of 22.59 percent.

    * It might be wise to avoid favorites in stakes races. Since 2006, they have won just 25.1 percent of the time and produced a -33.27 percent ROI. Stakes favorites switching from the grass to Keeneland’s Polytrack are an even worse bet: just 19.4 percent wins and a -55.65 percent ROI.

    * Favorites in claiming races that last raced on dirt and have not had a subsequent workout over the Keeneland surface are 14 of 64 since 2006, with a -38.59 percent ROI.

    * Since 2006, $2 exacta payoffs have averaged $121.81, $2 trifectas $984.59 and $2 superfectas $5,629.24.