Free Sunday Selections
Gulfstream Park (1/30/11)
Race 2 * 6.5 Furlongs * Dirt
6-Tap For Luck (5/2)
Fair Odds: 2-1
3-Because I Like It (4/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
4-Funny Sunny (6/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
COMMENT(S): It’s with layoff starters like TAP FOR LUCK that trainer Todd Pletcher excels — a classy horse dropping in class. Tap For Luck looked spectacular winning her lifetime bow with a 102 Equibase speed figure (today’s par is 93) and -3 late speed ration (LSR). She then tried graded company in a trio of routes, finishing second in the Grade 3 Tempted. Today, she’s back sprinting, which I think suits her better (her dam has a 6.20 Dosage Index). BECAUSE I LIKE possesses the best (lowest) early speed rations (ESRs) in the field and should be tighter in her second start off the shelf. FUNNY SUNNY ran OK in her debut race at Hoosier Downs.
BET(S): WIN on 6 at odds of 2-1 or greater.
Gulfstream Park (1/30/11)
Race 4 * 8.5 Furlongs * Turf
8-Performing (4/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
1-Ba Ba’s Bunch (20/1)
Fair Odds: 12-1
2-I Dreamt I Was (5/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
COMMENT(S): PERFORMING looks best on paper, but she has a tendency to hang, making her very vulnerable at a short price. BA BA’S BUNCH recorded an excellent +2 LSR in a Dec. 2 win off of a long layoff and then bid and hung last time. With improvement, she could prove to be dangerous at a price. I DREAMT I WAS ran very well last time (85 Equibase speed figure, -1 LSR); she fits.
Race 2 * 6.5 Furlongs * Dirt
6-Tap For Luck (5/2)
Fair Odds: 2-1
3-Because I Like It (4/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
4-Funny Sunny (6/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
COMMENT(S): It’s with layoff starters like TAP FOR LUCK that trainer Todd Pletcher excels — a classy horse dropping in class. Tap For Luck looked spectacular winning her lifetime bow with a 102 Equibase speed figure (today’s par is 93) and -3 late speed ration (LSR). She then tried graded company in a trio of routes, finishing second in the Grade 3 Tempted. Today, she’s back sprinting, which I think suits her better (her dam has a 6.20 Dosage Index). BECAUSE I LIKE possesses the best (lowest) early speed rations (ESRs) in the field and should be tighter in her second start off the shelf. FUNNY SUNNY ran OK in her debut race at Hoosier Downs.
BET(S): WIN on 6 at odds of 2-1 or greater.
Gulfstream Park (1/30/11)
Race 4 * 8.5 Furlongs * Turf
8-Performing (4/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
1-Ba Ba’s Bunch (20/1)
Fair Odds: 12-1
2-I Dreamt I Was (5/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
COMMENT(S): PERFORMING looks best on paper, but she has a tendency to hang, making her very vulnerable at a short price. BA BA’S BUNCH recorded an excellent +2 LSR in a Dec. 2 win off of a long layoff and then bid and hung last time. With improvement, she could prove to be dangerous at a price. I DREAMT I WAS ran very well last time (85 Equibase speed figure, -1 LSR); she fits.
BET(S): WIN on 1 (at odds of 12-1 or greater) and/or WIN on 2 (at odds of 5-1 or greater) and/or PLACE on 8 (at odds of 7-2 or greater).
Gulfstream Park (1/30/11)
Race 8 * 7.0 Furlongs * Dirt
6-Dancinginherdreams (5/2)
Fair Odds: 5-2
3-Third Chance (5/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
4-R Heat Lightning (3/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
COMMENT(S): DANCINGINHERDREAM’s effort in the Grade 3 Pocahontas was simply awesome, earning the daughter of Tapit a -10 ESR and -7 LSR. Obviously, she has a ton of ability, though I’m concerned about the layoff (91 days). THIRD CHANCE improved significantly last time, garnering a 98 Equibase speed figure (today’s par is 100) and a -9 LSR. More importantly, she’s got enough early lick to contend early. R HEAT LIGHTNING is another that appears to be improving and her recent workouts look encouraging.
BET(S): WIN on 6 at odds of 5-2 or greater.
Gulfstream Park (1/30/11)
Race 10 * 8.0 Furlongs * Dirt
4-Black N Beauty (6/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
2-Major Gain (8/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
6-Leave of Absence (10/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
COMMENT(S): BLACK N BEAUTY could not have looked more impressive in his latest and my pace figures back up the strong visual impression I got from that race. The Canadian-bred son of Devil His Due earned a -10 ESR and -5 LSR in winning that N1X allowance affair on Jan. 7. On the negative side, he was just a $2,500 yearling purchase, indicating some potential physical issues, and he’ll be tested for class today, but the early returns have been good. MAJOR GAIN broke his maiden in a Grade 3 event at Arlington Park and raced well in his dirt debut on Nov. 27; he could be overlooked. LEAVE OF ABSENCE recorded a woeful -20 LSR last time, but his previous effort was good enough to win this.
BET(S): WIN/PLACE on 4 at odds of 7-2 or greater.
6-Dancinginherdreams (5/2)
Fair Odds: 5-2
3-Third Chance (5/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
4-R Heat Lightning (3/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
COMMENT(S): DANCINGINHERDREAM’s effort in the Grade 3 Pocahontas was simply awesome, earning the daughter of Tapit a -10 ESR and -7 LSR. Obviously, she has a ton of ability, though I’m concerned about the layoff (91 days). THIRD CHANCE improved significantly last time, garnering a 98 Equibase speed figure (today’s par is 100) and a -9 LSR. More importantly, she’s got enough early lick to contend early. R HEAT LIGHTNING is another that appears to be improving and her recent workouts look encouraging.
BET(S): WIN on 6 at odds of 5-2 or greater.
Gulfstream Park (1/30/11)
Race 10 * 8.0 Furlongs * Dirt
4-Black N Beauty (6/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
2-Major Gain (8/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
6-Leave of Absence (10/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
COMMENT(S): BLACK N BEAUTY could not have looked more impressive in his latest and my pace figures back up the strong visual impression I got from that race. The Canadian-bred son of Devil His Due earned a -10 ESR and -5 LSR in winning that N1X allowance affair on Jan. 7. On the negative side, he was just a $2,500 yearling purchase, indicating some potential physical issues, and he’ll be tested for class today, but the early returns have been good. MAJOR GAIN broke his maiden in a Grade 3 event at Arlington Park and raced well in his dirt debut on Nov. 27; he could be overlooked. LEAVE OF ABSENCE recorded a woeful -20 LSR last time, but his previous effort was good enough to win this.
BET(S): WIN/PLACE on 4 at odds of 7-2 or greater.
Santa Anita Park (1/30/11)
Race 7 * 7.0 Furlongs * Dirt
8-Switch (1/1)
Fair Odds: 6-5
6-Quissiana (8/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
2-Mother Ruth (8/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
COMMENT(S): SWITCH is the real deal, but I wasn’t thrilled with her last race and would try to beat her in the show pool.
BET(S): Show on 6.
22 comments:
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I appreciate the thorough analysis and the way you break down each race – it's a real game-changer for someone like me who's still learning the ropes of handicapping.
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Derek Simon's analysis of four Gulfstream Park races from January 30, 2011, provides top picks and fair odds for key horses. The top picks include Tap For Luck, Performing, Ba Ba's Bunch, and I Dreamt I Was. Performing is the top choice, but has a tendency to "hang" when closing. Dancinginherdreams, Third Chance, and R Heat Lightning are the top picks for the Grade 3 Pocahontas race. Indian Immigration Lawyer Near Me lawyers is advising clients on legal matters. This advisory role can range from providing guidance on business transactions to helping clients understand their rights and obligations under the law.
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