• Preakness 2013: Redemption for ‘Figure Handicapping’

    POSTED May 25, 2013 By Derek Simon
    In the days leading up to and immediately following the Kentucky Derby, all I heard about was Orb.

    Orb, Orb, Orb… I finally understood how Jan Brady felt.

    Frankly, I wasn’t that impressed with the horse and had trouble understanding what all the fuss was about — kind of like Nicki Minaj’s career. Even after he made me look foolish in Louisville, I still wasn’t convinced that Orb had what it took to be the subject of a future Disney movie, much less a Triple Crown winner.


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Of course, I made this determination based on numbers: speed ratings and my own pace figures (speed rations) — and that’s where the trouble started. You see, I found out from racing fans and other media types that the data I’ve relied on to guide me through the perilous pari-mutuel waters for more than 20 years were, well, worthless.

    Beyer was (and presumably still is) an idiot; Tom Brohamer is a complete moron; Bill Quirin is a certified loon — and I belong in a padded cell for ever listening to and/or learning from these whakos.

    According to Orb supporters, the colt’s dominance in the Run for the Roses was a matter of will — not pace, not speed. Indeed, legendary turf writer Damyon Runyon was dead wrong when he said, “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet.” The way to bet, I was told, is to ignore speed and pace figures like the stuff growing hair in my refrigerator and focus instead on how a horse looks and how it behaves. Only by becoming an expert in body language can one hope to triumph at the windows, I was informed.

    Then came the Preakness Stakes… and complete and total redemption for figure handicapping.

    While Orb mania reached a fever pitch throughout cyberspace, I expressed concern about the condition of Shug McGaughey’s stable star on my May15 podcast, speculating that he was likely to regress in the Preakness and voicing concerns about his fair odds.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    On that same broadcast, I also noted that I was impressed by the numbers on Mylute and particularly Oxbow, who I thought ran a bang-up race in the Derby

    (For a snippet of my pre-Preakness thoughts on Orb and Oxbow, click HERE.)

    When the race ran true to the numbers (at least my numbers) — Oxbow was the winner, Itsmyluckyday finished second, Mylute rallied for third and Orb straggled home a distant fourth — the “body language” crowd was quick to blame the Derby champ’s defeat on jockey Joel Rosario’s incompetence, the “dead” rail, the pace, George Bush (just a hunch), etc.

    As for me, I gave silent thanks to Beyer, Quinn and Quirin and collected my superfecta winnings.

    Monday Win Factor Reports

     Coming soon... I hope.

  • Oxbow's Preakness pace wasn't soft

    POSTED May 24, 2013 By Ed DeRosa

    Most of the discussion in the aftermath of Oxbow's Preakness Stakes victory involved either explaining away why Orb lost (dead rail) or downplaying why Oxbow won (easy pace). Even if you agree that both played a factor in the outcome, the absolute nature with which some convey these details does a disservice to the science of handicapping--inexact as it can be.

    For Joel Cunningham's part on Triple Crown Insider's Preakness recap above, he notes that "Oxbow ran a very good race" before adding, "Orb didn't fire his best shot."

    I agree with both those statements, and if you liked Oxbow at all--even if you didn't think he was the most likely winner or even a more likely winner than Orb--then you had to be thrilled with the 15.4-to-1 win price.

    I liked what I saw from Oxbow in his Lecomte victory but was way off him by the Kentucky Derby following two hang jobs in the Risen Star and Rebel Stakes and a non effort in the Arkansas Derby.

    There were signs of life in the Kentucky Derby, though, as many pointed out that Oxbow ran best of those near the blistering pace, and a softer pace in the Preakness figured to benefit him with Gary Stevens retaining the mount.

    The key word there is "softer" which is a comparative term. Few would argue that the Preakness was a kinder pace than the Derby, but "softer" doesn't mean "soft." All three of Oxbow's wins have come in gate-to-wire fashion, and since his maiden win in his fourth career start, Oxbow is undefeated when making the lead early.

    All that is to say we have a good baseline of the pace Oxbow is capable of handling and winning since he had done it twice before. His E1 (start to first call) and E2 (start to second call) pace ratings on Brisnet.com were 94-94 in his maiden win and 84-92 in his LeComte win.

     Before Preakness, Oxbow had five previous races where at least one of those ratings (the E1 or E2) was 95+, and he lost all five of those races. In the Preakness, however, Oxbow popped a 96-105 en route to a victory in which he closed with a 114 rating. 

    I have a hard time calling Oxbow's Preakness pace "soft" or "easy" given that he ran faster than he had ever run before when winning yet this time still won. Plenty of credit for that is due to Racing Hall of Fame connections trainer D. Wayne Lukas and jockey Gary Stevens, who pushed the envelope just enough to get the best out of Oxbow at all points of call (114 LP rating!). Lukas tipped his hand all week, saying that Titletown Five would absolutely NOT be on the lead, and now we know the full effect of Lukas's plan.

    How does this fit into how we handicap a race? I'm a broken record on this, but successful wagering is more about determining who can win (and the chances of that happening) than it is saying who will win. I dismissed Oxbow, but there was clearly a scenario in which he would win this race, and there was some chance of that happening. With the benefit of having seen it happening, his fair odds were probably more like 9-to-1 in the thought that what happened in the Preakness probably happens 10% of the time.

    There were some poor judgments on my part not to include that conclusion among my possible scenarios, but that's why Lukas and Stevens are in the Hall of Fame and I'm writing a blog about it.

  • Solid Stakes Situations

    POSTED May 22, 2013 By Frank Cotolo

    Pacing and trotting action ensues into deep spring with action from many divisions in the U.S. and business-torn Ontario. New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) and Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) for soph pacers and trotters are flowing with glamour-boys and girls. And they rev up for the giant Art Rooney Pace and Lismore at Yonkers, while the elders are shaking things up at Hoosier, Harrah’s Philadelphia and Western Fair.

    Of course, there are soph trotters of both sexes testing their division foes as they trot the long road to August. Those races will be covered in this week’s Hambletonian Trail blog, brought to you exclusively by TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society.

    Also, as we promised, our harness horses to watch (H2W) list from tracks around North America continues through the stakes season with hot prospects.

    TwinSpires presents a special Dan Patch at Hoosier Park super bonus for May 25. CLICK HERE.

    Other Hoosier offers ensue throughout the harness meet. Check out the Hoosier details here.

    ‘Patch’-work Pacers

    The $200,000 Dan Patch at Hoosier Park on May 25 brings the top older pacers to Indiana before some head for Canada next week. The newest rage, of course, is Hurrikane Kingcole, who still has a lot to prove against these more experienced elders. But Rockincam has already proven to have the fury needed to make it a big season and he should love this track.

    Also a danger, despite his post, is Aracache Hanover. He could handle the outside here and it may benefit his tactical side, as he may be able to find a good spot early and close on a lot of this speed.

     ‘Jersey’ Jaunts

    Soph-colt-and-filly pacers bred in the Garden State go in round two of the New Jersey Sires Stakes for their divisions at the Meadowlands on Saturday, May 25. Leg two of this series follows through from last week’s episodes and for the colts we are staying with the choice we had in leg one, Rocnrolwilneverdie. He will be the outside contender over Johny Rock and Emeritus Maximus.

    The second colt split may offer a few value plays to win. Rock Star may be the choice, but we give a shot to To Beach His Own. Trainer Ray Schnittker is in the bike for his budding star and this could be one of his steps into the limelight.

    In the filly division (there is only one mile) we are going to try to beat Jerseylicious, the flaming hot gal that we nabbed as a longshot and gave to you live on Hambletonian day when she took a big stakes at two. Our value choice here is Authorize, who got a bum trip in the first leg and could come back strongly at a price.

    Molson Pace Menu

    The $150,000 Molson Pace Invitation at Western Fair Raceway has the connections of six horses accepting invitations to the event that is the track’s biggest race. Two-time defending champion and the richest pacer of all-time, Foiled Again will headline this year’s edition along with Aracache Hanover, State Treasurer, Versado, Keystone Velocity and Something For Doc. The Molson Pace Prep will take place Friday May 24 and the winner of that event will also receive an invite. The 12-race Molson Pace program will take place on May 31

    The ‘Art’ Of Yonkers

    A dozen three-year-olds are entered for the 23rd edition of Yonkers Raceway's Art Rooney Pace. That number of entrants makes for a pair of $40,000 eliminations Saturday night, May 25, with the first four finishers in each elim qualifying for the $275,000 final on June 1.

    The dozen, in alphabetical order, are…Bet the Moon, Doctor Butch (a $30,000 supplemental entrant), Duel in the Sun, Good Day Mate, Just Bettor, Lonewolf Currier, Mach it So, Sir Cary's Z Tam, Source of Pride, Sunfire Blue Chip, Swift As a Shadow and Visa Viper.

    The supplement, a Linda Toscano-trained pacer, is the morning-line choice in elim one but we’ll go with Mach It So with his inherent speed raring to make it three in a row on this half-mile oval. Then, Lonewolf Currier could make this small field wither by the fourth turn with a sweeping brush at a decent price for only six.

    The companion event to the “Rooney” is the Lismore for three-year-old pacing fillies. It only attracted eight, so there will only be a final, worth $117,060, on June 1.

    Sunday Spectacles

    Harrah’s Philadelphia presents two star-studded fields, mare pacers in the $250,000 Betsy Ross Mares Invitational and male trotters in the $250,000 Maxie Lee Memorial Invitational on Sunday, May 26. 

    Some may argue that the femme pacing field is stronger than the male field, headed by seasoned frauleins Drop The Ball, Anndrovette and Rocklamation. On any given day each one could beat the other. The question about May 26 is how will the persnickity surface of Philly play? That won’t be a concern of the betting public, however, they will stick to current form and earnings and that means Anndrovette should be favored. It is difficult to assess before seeing where the crowd will lean but beware of Economy Terror, she is in her second race of the season and could be primed well to beat older foes; she should have a hellova season at four and this is a great place to start.

    We’ve seen most of the older trotters in the “Lee” invitation, which features last week’s “Cutler” winner Sevuga and the red-hot Modern Family. Elder equine statesman Wishing Stone is all out in the U.S. this season so far but we have our eyes on the improving New York-bred Blacktuxwhitesocks. The three aforementioned guys are on the outside and although they mark speedier miles so far, that is not to say “Blacktux” cannot match them stride for stride and at a price.

    H2W Legend


    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track to decide how you will use the information.

    The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means that horse is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared.

    An “ae” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list (so it might not get into the race). Multi-horses may be listed in the same race.

    Horses from previous lists that are not racing have a NR after the name on a separate line from dated entries.

    Wagering on any of the H2W listed horses is based on your own judgment. Your handicapping skills should include decisions to wager to win, place, show or in exotics. If you have any questions about the H2W list, send them to us through the TwinSpires blog channel.

    H2W

    Buffalo
    5/24/13, Ja’s Charmer R2; Berosis R4
    5/25/13, Bombay Away R1; Coastal Highway R2; Dartmouth Hall R4; +Four Hoof Drive R5 
    Undercover Bro NR; Debs Girloffortune NR; In Good Hands NR

    Cal Expo
    5/25/13, +Ridgerson R9; Lebo Jones R6
    Terror Time NR; Chevie Balboa NR  

    Hoosier
    5/25/13, +Bellator R4
    Jackets Required NR; Keep On Flirtin NR    

    Maywood
    5/23/13, +Park Bug R8; Nack Brenlin R9; +Summer Party R10; +Primrose Path R10; +Hoosier Jetta R12
    5/24/13, +Jack N Water R2; +Catch The Rapids ae R5Blueridgevalentino R13
    Huga Yankee NR; Free To Scoot NR; Prime Escape NR

    Meadows
    3/25/13, +Marty’s Charm R1; +They Call Me Moon R2; American Gangster R11
    Lebron Hall NR; Whatagamble NR; Smokin American NR   

    Northfield
    5/22/13,  + Rose Run Leah R4
    5/25/13, +Lucky Brad R7; Destiny Rides R8   

    Pompano
    5/25/13, +Bellator R4

    Scarborough
    5/24/13. Luvalicious R2; Can You Fly R4; Dvc Journey Home R6; Scootin Keefe R7; Allamerican Cheer R9

    Scioto
    5/23, +Frog Juice R 12
    5/25/13, Lookinforadventure R6; Mybrothergeorge R7

    Tioga
    5/24/13, +Tiffany Mallone R2
    5/25/13; +Strong Hope R6
    5/26/13, Jk Geronimo R10
    Oh No Three O NR; Stand Up Comic NR; Ramona Disomma NR; Rompaway Alvin NR

    Vernon
    5/25/13, +Joltin Duel R8
    5/27, Millbrook Millie R6
     
    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED May 19, 2013 By Frank Cotolo

    A lot of bettors were excited about Mister Herbie in the “Cutler” final at the Meadowlands on May 18, sending him off around 6-5. We liked him, though not at that price, and if you were so inclined to pass due to that then you saved a few bucks since Mister Herbie was terrible, finishing ninth with no particular excuse.
    On that same card we were correct about Rockin Amadeus, though just about everyone else turned out to support him also and he won the New Jersey Sires Stakes’ (NJSS) first leg for soph-pacing colts, paying $4.20. Our other colt choice, Rocnrollwillneverdie finished fourth in his NJSS split.
    At Pocono on Sunday, May 19, soph-pacing colts bred in Pennsylvania (PASS) battled in four splits, each worth $62,587, still some of the largest sires-stakes purses in the country.
     
    We caught the first PASS with Martini Hanover at $6.40. The second split saw our choice, Teresa's Beach, scratched. We were with everyone on the third episode as the return of Captaintreacherous was successful and he began his soph campaign paying $2.20. Our fourth choice, Bigrisk, finished third at 18-1.
     
    For the soph-colt-and-filly trotters’ stakes, visit the Hambletonian Society’s special archive page for the Hambletonian Trail stories.
     

    H2W



    $34.20 Jj’s Current, Hoosier
    $11.80 Rocket Fuel, Hoosier
    $6.00 Redford Hall, Buffalo
    $5.00 Rag Doll, Freehold
    $4.90 Ace Boo Koo, Buffalo
    $4.50 Haggin Oaks, Tioga
    $4.40 Richerthanrayno, Hoosier
    $3.00 Announcement N, Philadelphia

    The following are the horses that finished second or third along with their post-time odds. Special notes on those finishes follow.

    Seconds:
    Kiasma (3-2), Buffalo; T’s Eelctric (5-1), Pompano; Marty’s Charm (7-2), Meadows; Henry Gram (11-1), Scioto

    Thirds:
    Smokin American (9-1), Meadows; Cowgirls Whisper (4-1), Lebanon; Nutmegs Cider (11-1), Tioga; Amazing Dot (6-1), Cal Expo

    All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will be in the Thursday blog.

    Cashing Notes

     
    Rocket Fuel at Hoosier defeated the favorite of the race, an exacta worth $29.40. Kiasma was second to Redford Hall at Buffalo, producing an exacta worth $10.20. T’s Electric was second at Pompano to the favorite, igniting a $53.40 exacta.
     
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    News And Notes

    Market Share, last year’s Hambletonian winner, returned to the track to prepare for his four-year-old campaign, winning a qualifier at the Meadowlands on May 18. His stable mate, the top soph-pacer of 2012, Heston Blue Chip also won that morning. Linda Toscano trains Market Share, who has not raced since winning the American National in early November of last year. “Heston,” of course, won the Breeders Crown.

    Although the meet has been abbreviated to 20 programs, Kawartha Downs resumed racing on May 18. “We have dropped more than 50 per cent of racing and from $130,000 to $30,000 a week,” said a spokesman for the horsemen. “That is a lot less and it hurts. It does keep us involved in the game but it is a short-term solution to the problem. I guess you can say it isn’t great but it’s better than nothing.” Kawartha was about to be a victim of bulldozers when it was saved at the last minute by investors.

    Trainer Rene Allard has been told that his entries will not accepted by the Meadowlands, which amounts to a ban for the Quebec native. No reason was given for Allard’s expulsion. Allard moved his operation to the United States from Canada and also races at Yonkers and Pocono Downs. He currently sits second in all of North America on the trainers' list with 173 races won.

    Vernon Downs released the following information in response to inquiries about horses eligible to the $500,000 Empire Breeders Classic (EBC) three-year-old colt and filly trots. “The EBC will remain at Vernon Downs with a slight adjustment to the dates. The eliminations for these races will be moved two days later than originally scheduled and will be raced at Vernon on Sunday, June 2 with the finals the following Sunday, June 9. The June 2 card will be an afternoon post of 1:15 p.m. and the June 9 finals will be presented during a night card with first post at 6:45 p.m.

    Googoo Gaagaa, the striking trotter, now four, with a pacing sire, did not get the 2013 season going very strongly. Then it was discovered that “Googoo” needed throat surgery to correct a problem that may have been the cause for his poor return to the race. There is no word on when he will return to the track but insiders tell us that he is doing fine after the operation.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Every weekend as part of that blog we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets. 

    Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.
    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.

     

    Cartoons by Thom Pye

  • The Baltimore Bounce

    POSTED May 17, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Horses don’t bounce.

    At least that’s the position I’ve always taken when arguing with speed-figure handicappers and others who believe that a single race can “gut” a horse — à la Rachel Alexandra in the 2010 Woodward.

    Frankly, I feel the same way about “bouncing” that I do about global warming. I don’t doubt the phenomenon — thoroughbred racehorses clearly have good and bad days (just ask Itsmyluckyday) and statistics show that the Earth’s temperature is, in fact, rising slightly — but I am very dubious of the conclusions that many draw from this data.

    No, I do not think that man (in the general sense) controls the fate of the planet. To paraphrase a line from my favorite holiday movie “It’s a Wonderful Life”: In the whole vast configuration of things, I'd say man is nothing but a scurvy little spider.

    We can’t prevent earthquakes, tornadoes, monsoons or even the occasional afternoon sprinkle, but somehow we have the power to destroy the planet? Please. (The power to destroy ourselves is another matter, of course.)

    Likewise, I think it is generally foolhardy to say, as followers of The Sheets and other speed rating services often do, that a certain pattern of numbers indicates a horse that is “over the top,” or due to run a poor race. And I think it is particularly foolish to assert that there is an optimum number of days between races that allows these “gutted” animals to recover — or not.

    The fact is, when one is dealing with a finite data series, which, for the most part, speed figures are — horses can only go so fast or so slow — what we see from animals that regress after a particularly impressive performance is more often a return to the mean than it is a reaction to a hard race.

    Did pitcher Philip Humber of the Chicago White Sox “bounce” when he gave up nine earned runs in five innings on April 26, 2012 — a mere five days after he became just the 21st player in the 135-year history of Major League Baseball to throw a perfect game?

    Few of sound mind and body would argue that he did.

    Through May 11, Humber has a 5.34 career earned run average and is 0-8 this year. What happened on April 26, 2012 was simply a return to the norm; in Humber’s case, a return to mediocrity.

    Now, having said this, I think it is equally obvious that greatness, at least as it relates to sports, can be defined as an athlete (or team) that consistently produces outstanding results. Most people know that Wilt Chamberlain is the only player in NBA history to score 100 points in a game, but how many people know that Chamberlain scored 60 or more 32 times (yes, that’s a three followed by a two)?

    I can already hear the grumbling: Fine, fine… thanks for the sports history lesson, Poindexter. But what do Humber and Chamberlain have to do with horseracing and bouncing?

    Everything, as it turns out.

    I doubt many racing fans would disagree with me when I say that winning the Triple Crown is among the toughest achievements in all of sports. After all, only 11 horses have pulled off the coveted Kentucky Derby-Preakness-Belmont Stakes trifecta and it’s been 35 years since the last one (Affirmed in 1978).

    What all 11 of those horses had in common was consistent brilliance — at least during their Triple Crown run. At no point was this more evident than in 1973, when Secretariat set a track record in each of the Triple Crown contests (I don’t care what Pimlico officials say).

    Similarly, Sir Barton (1919), the first Triple Crown champion, set a track record in the Belmont Stakes; Citation (1948) destroyed the track record at Garden State in the Jersey Derby, a prep for the Belmont (Citation also raced six times in 61 days prior to his 8-length score in the “Test of Champions”); and Whirlaway (1941) set a track record in the Run for the Roses.

    The other greats that won the Triple Crown also showed remarkable consistency. 

    This got me to thinking: Could one use this factor to determine whether or not a horse is a viable Triple Crown contender?

    My gut feeling is that Derby winners possessing recent speed figures within a fairly restricted range probably outperform those that show a greater variance of performance. Hence, I came up with the following chart:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    It appears that my hypothesis may be correct (the sample is far too small to be definitive). Horses that improved their Brisnet speed figure by more than five points in the Kentucky Derby (compared to their previous start) are just 1-for-7 in Maryland since 1992. All other Derby winners are 7-of-13. (Using the Beyer numbers produces a 1-for-9 and 7-for-11 ledger, respectively.)

    This begs the question: Are Triple Crown winners the exception to the rule? Based on the following chart, not so much:


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Of course, I had to use the old Daily Racing Form speed ratings for this one, but even utilizing that simple formula (100 minus the fifths of a second the winner’s time was off the track record minus beaten lengths) — and without using track variants — it is clear that even Triple Crown champs tend to record consistent speed figs. In fact, Secretariat, one of the chart “exceptions” actually set a track record in his race prior to the Wood, which was arguably the worst race of his career (explaining his 20-point ascension in Louisville).

    So where does this leave Orb? Well, honestly, it makes him a bit vulnerable — especially if any of the other Preakness contenders improve.

    Will Orb, like Secretariat, be the exception to the "greatness rule"? Believers will get even odds or less to find out.

    Weekend Wagers

    Coming soon.