SimonSays Handicapping Challenge

Week 8

Anthony Kelzenberg

All selections for Friday (3/18):

Race 5A (Rosehill)
40 units to win on #1 DESCARADO (5/2 ML in a 7 horse field).

Comments: Descarado gets a HUGE jockey switch to Nash Rawiller, who wins at over 40% with trainer Gai Waterhouse. In addition, in his last race Descarado was ridden by an apprentice jockey with an awkward 6 wide trip - that is death in Australia. A "conspiracy theorist" might even venture that Gai told the apprentice jock to go 5 or 6 wide to get in extra conditioning. Despite this, the race's "even money" ML favorite, Maluckyday, saved most of the ground in the same comeback race and only beat Descarado by one length!! I really like Descarado's chances here.

Race 7A (Rosehill)
60 units to win on #1 Melito (4/1 ML in a 17 horse field).
7 units exacta 1(Melito) with 7(Aloha).
3 units exacta 7 with 1.

Comments: #1 Melito has been facing the best sprinters (male and female) in Sydney. Switches to Gerald Ryan's "go to" jock Hugh Bowman. Faces fillies and mares only today in a "Restricted Group 1" on a track she likes (6-2-2-1). The effort at WAF (Warick Farm) might best be ignored and I rate her off the 19th February effort when she crushed stalwart sprinting mare Hot Danish.

#7 Aloha is a very, very tall and muscular filly that has been putting up very competitive speed figures on the Melbourne-area tracks while winning 4 races in a row. Certainly on form Aloha is extremely dangerous. The distance is perfect for her, but often it is difficult for horses used to going left-handed (the Melbourne and North American direction) to all of a sudden race right-handed (the Sydney direction). That is the main reason I am placing Melito on top, as Aloha is probably the better athlete and value players may be tempted by her 6/1 ML.

José D. De León Alejandro

All picks for Saturday (3/19):

Aqueduct
Race 1 * 6 Furlongs * Dirt

7-Studley
6-Dealing Lucky

BET: $50 WIN on 7

Aqueduct
Race 3 * 1-1/8 Miles * Dirt

1-Wishful Tomcat

BET: $100 WIN on 1

Aqueduct
Race 5 * 1 Mile 70 Yards * Dirt

3-Miami Hammer
2-Ontothenextone

BET: $50 WIN on 3

Aqueduct
Race 7 * 6 Furlongs * Dirt

6-Ground Force
5-Master Splash
7-Piscesbymoonlight

BETS: $20 WIN on 5 and 6; $20 SECOND on 5 and 6; Pick 4: 5-6-7/1-2-4-5/5/2

Aqueduct
Race 9 * 6 Furlongs * Dirt

5-Quantum Miss

BET: $100 WIN on 5

Gulfstream Park
Race 3 * 1 Mile * Dirt

5-Cal Nation

BET: $100 WIN on 5

Gulfstream Park
Race 10 * 7 Furlongs * Dirt

5-Hilda's Passion

BET: $100 WIN on 5

Fair Grounds
Race 9 *5.5 Furlongs * Turf

4-Wild About Marie
11-Celadon
6-Leopard Rock

BETS: $10 WIN on 4; $10 PLACE on 11; $1Exacta Box 4-6-11

Oaklawn Park
Race 10 * 1-1/16 Miles * Dirt

6-The Factor
5-J.P.s Gusto
9-Sway Away

BETS: $100 WIN on 6; $100 ($2) Exacta Box: 5,6,9; $1 Trifecta Box: 5-6-9

Tampa Bay Downs
Race 9 * 1-1/16 Miles * Turf

6-Voodoo Swinge
10-Tannersville
1-Takes North
7-Double Partner

BETS: $10 WIN and $10 PLACE on 6 and 10; $1 Exacta Box: 1,6,7,10; $0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,3,6,7,10

Turf Paradise
Race 8 * 1 mile * Turf

6-Doc Can Dance
5-The Great Caper
1-Cactus Breeze

BETS: $10 WIN on 1,5,6; $1 Exacta Box: 1,5,6,

Jon Lunman

All selections at Gulfstream Park (3/4/11):

Race 1
SUPERFECTA BOX 2-5-7-8.

Race2
SUPERFECTA BOX 1-4-5-7.

Race 3
SUPERFECTA BOX 1-6-8-10.

Race 4
SUPERFECTA BOX 1-2-6-8.

Race 5
SUPERFECTA BOX 1-3-4-7.

Race 6
SUPERFECTA BOX 2-5-7-9.

Race 7
SUPERFECTA BOX 5-6-9-10.

Race 8
SUPERFECTA BOX 1-3-5-11.

Race 9
SUPERFECTA BOX 3-4-6-12.

Race 10
SUPERFECTA BOX 2-6-8-12.

Garnet Barnsdale

Plays for Friday (3/18):

Woodbine Harness

Race 3: $20 ex box 4-5. Both horses may benefit from an early speed duel. If the #4, Dakota Noc wins, look for me, my wife son and sisters in the Winner's Circle!

Race 6: There are 2 unbeaten horses squaring off in the Damsel Final and the #3-Speed to Spare and #4 Didrickson tower over this field. Gonna play some tris and supers. $20 Tri 3,4/3,4/1
$2 Super 3,4/3,4/1,6,7,9/1,6,7,9; $4 Super 3,4/3,4/1/2,6,7,8,9; $4 Super 3,4/3,4/2,6,7,8,9/1.

Race 8: The #5, Margarita Man raced creditably from the 10-hole vs. the VERY hot EW Fisher last time. The night's best handles these with ease (no chance he closes at the 9/2 m/l though) $100 Win #5; $2 Pick 4 - 5/ALL/3,4,5,6/8; $1 Pick 4 - 5/ALL/3,4,5,6/7.

Race 11: The #8, She Just Rocks got the predicted agressive steer and won via a hugely brave first-over journey. She need only fear the #7, wish Away, if anyone, in this field. $30 Exacta 8-7, $20 exacta 7-8; $5 Tri 8/7/1,3,4,6,9; $5 Tri 8/1,3,4,6,9/7, $4tri 7/8/1,3,4,6,9; $2 Tri 7/1,3,4,6,9/8; $2 Super 8/7/1,3,4,6,9/1,3,4,6,9 $2 Super 8/1,3,4,6,9/7/1,3,4,6,9

Saturday selections (3/19):

Oaklawn Park Race 10 (The Rebel Stakes): Like my friend Tony Kelzenburg, I believe THE FACTOR is gonna open some people's eyes today and thrust himself clearly into the Derby picture. The bets - $200 Win 6. $20 exactas 6/1,10; $4 tri 6/1,10/all $4 tri 6/all/1,10.

Woodbine Harness Race 6: This race looks fairly easy in that the 5 looks like a lock, and the 3 and 9 look much better than the rest for the minor placings. $40 Tri 5/9/3,6,7 $40 Tri 5/3/6,7,9; $20 Tri 5/3,6,7/9; $20 Tri 5/6,7,9/3; $5 super 5/3/6,7,9/6,7,9; $5 super 5/9/3,6,7/3,6,7; $5 Super 5/3,9/3,9/6,7.