Derek Simon's Weekend Selections
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COMMENTS: RAPID REDUX is seeking to become only the second modern-day U.S. thoroughbred (the other is Zenyatta) to win more than 16 consecutive races when he heads a field of eight scheduled to compete in a $5,000 starter allowance contest at Charles Town Friday night.
To qualify for a “starter” race, a horse must’ve competed for a certain claiming tag — in this case, $5,000 — within the time frame specified (2010-2011 in this instance). Rapid Redux won a $5,000 claiming event at Monmouth Park on Aug. 13, 2010.
About the only way I can see Rapid Redux getting beat is if he’s forced to go too fast early. At Thistledown a couple of weeks ago, the son of Pleasantly Perfect recorded a -20 early speed ration (ESR) and then barely hung on to win by a half-length over Hatch. A repeat of that race makes him vulnerable.
If Rapid Redux does get leg-weary late, I think SMILING JORDAN has a great chance to run him down and may offer some value in one or both of the secondary pools (place and show) if they are negative.
BET(S): WIN on 11 at odds of 8-1 or greater. SHOW on 11.
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COMMENTS: I analyze this race, in great detail, on my latest TwinSpires podcast.
BET(S): WIN on 3 at odds of 2-1 or greater.
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COMMENTS: I think the morning line is way too low — again — on WINTER MEMORIES and, hence, will seek value — again — with HUNGRY ISLAND. I’ll also consider MORE THAN REAL at the right price, as well as THEYSKENS’ THEORY (although I doubt the price will be right on the talented Euro shipper).
BET(S): WIN on 3 at odds of 5-2 or greater and/or WIN on 1 at odds of 10-1 or greater. SHOW on 1 & 3 if 4-Winter Memories controls at least 75% of the show pool.
Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics
Races (Selections): 48 (51)
Wins: 18
Rate: 37.5%
Return: $139.90
ROI: +37.16%
(This year's published selections through 09/15/11.)
Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager and the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).
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