Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 10-10-11

The weekend produced two winners and an exacta and again our suggested contenders were in the thick of every race. We have to, after all, give ourselves credit for some of our choices that lose if those choices play a role in the outcome of the event. If we don’t address our losses that include competitive horses, why are we playing this game? After all, we cannot win most of our wagers and want only to win those for which we are rewarded well.  

This is why we continually support contenders that the public won’t like, those that offer upset status. There are lean weeks, of course, but to play as the public plays makes us no money in the long run.   

At The Red Mile on Friday night, Oct. 7, we were looking at two horses in an International Stallion Stakes. One of them was From Above, which we had last week at $18. The other was Uncle Peter. We did not expect From Above to go off anywhere near the 5-1 delivered by the public. We thought Uncle Peter would be the longer shot. However, “Peter” was a dead-on favorite. This, as we had mentioned, made “Above” our bet and this move against the crowd was productive. 

Above won, paying $13 and Peter was second, igniting a reasonably high exacta for 5-1 over prohibitive favorite, $29. This is testimony to our betting methods.  

In the filly division that night, we took the third split with Rockaround Sue with a worthy win price of $10.80. There were three filly miles. We called for a pass in the one headed by American Jewel (see news below). She lost anyway. The odds for Destiny’s Choice, last week’s $63 winner, were too low, so that was a pass.  

Putting the entire night in perspective by $2 win wagers, there were five plays, an investment of $10. The return with two winners (not counting the exacta, remember) was $23.80. With the exacta, the return was more than $50.  

On Saturday we offered a possible five plays but the odds were not acceptable on them all. Hillbilly Hanover was a play at 8-1; he finished third. Ezpass Hanover was only 2-1, making him an underlay, so there was no bet. Verdad was a play at 8-1 and finished third.  

Our filly suggestions were both plays. Foxy Lady went off at 52-1 and Ace Of Pace went off at 79-1. Both finished fifth. Sunday, we tweeted two colts for the Tattersalls. Fashion Delight, a bet at 6-1, finished third. Rollwithitharry, a bet at 20-1, was third. 

If you add $12 (base bet $2) to Friday’s investment, your plays equaled $22 and the return was $23.80, still a win-betting profit, if you don’t count the exacta. 

Our Cal-Expo Pick-4 ticket produced only one winner, paying $5.40, certainly not a win play for us. But it was another small ticket and next week we will try again to score a big chunk of the pool by hitting four. 

Our exclusive Breeders Crown Countdown blog continues with analysis, news and handicapping for “Crown”-eligible contenders (results, archives at Hambletonian Society). The elimination rounds at Woodbine are just two weeks away, on Oct. 21 and Oct. 22. The finals are all on the same race program (only the second time in Crown history this happens) on Oct. 29. Just as we did last year at Pocono Downs, we will cover elims and finals live on TwinSpires at the U.S. headquarters in league with the Hambo Society and staff of Woodbine in Canada. Special deals will be available at TwinSpires, so keep in tune with those pages as well as these TwinSpires blogs.  

Following us on Twitter offers you late picks on races not included in this blog and updates on choices we speak about here. As well as tweeting some profit-making plays, we leave some links and guide you to news and information.

Harness News

HarnessRacing dot com broke the story about American Jewel, as mentioned above, concerning her loss at The Red Mile. Trainer Jimmy Takter said that American Jewel, broke a P-1 bone in a sesamoid during Friday’s race and that she successfully underwent surgery Oct. 9. Takter said the filly had screws placed in the broken bone—on her right hind leg.

Takter said, “If you had to break a bone, the bone she broke was the best you could have [broken]. It’s just too bad since she's been perfect all year and never had any issues.”

American Jewel was undefeated in eight starts prior to her loss Friday. Her recovery process will take her out of the Breeders Crown. 

We continue to watch for horses trained and/or driven by Gerald Longo at the current Colonial Downs meet and we have another good winner in Speakrighttomyheart ($9), driven by Joey Mapes. Stay tuned, Longo horses continue to pay well, so get on ‘em when they are not the public’s choice.

(Cartoon by Thom Pye)