Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 10-31-11
Last week, after the Breeders Crown eliminations, I suggested that there might be people who wish to enter rehab based on an “addiction to wagering on promising horses that the public rejects.” It is a condition that swears people off of prohibitive favorites, under-lays or whatever you like to call horses backed vigorously by the majority of bettors. If you were one of those people and you were successful in rehab, returning to wagering with an undiluted respect for the most probable winner, you cashed tickets in the 2011 Breeders Crown program at Woodbine on Oct. 29.
The Breeders Crown program, 12 races with most of the divisions’ best horses, produced an average win price of $7.50. If we eliminate the highest win price and the lowest, a usual ploy when attempting to calculate an accurate average, that price becomes $6.86.
If you won with every horse, that pick-12 cost $24 and returned $90.40. If you only played the favorites, your $24 got you back $25.60, a profit less than 2 percent.
The highest prices of the evening were 18.90, 12.90, 11.40, 11.00 and 10.60.
The first Pick 4 paid $53.10 and the second paid $196 for dollar tickets.
This was not the kind of card under any circumstances that would find me, as a player with an “addiction to wagering on promising horses that the public rejects,” turning a profit. The best, mediocre or the worse horses offered in any dozen races, I would not be playing all the races and I doubt very much if I would have profited from the few I played.
So, our work to discover those horses in the finals that would, in our opinion, go to the gate with odds better than their chances, was unproductive, which in the scheme of any dozen races, is not uncommon. With that explained, let me review what happened to our suggested contenders in all of the races, including how we dealt with the closing odds.
It began strangely, as the horse we chose to win became the race favorite. We could not flatter ourselves and think our published choice affected so many bettors but we had no idea why Jersey As went to post as the public choice. Our three “exotic material” choices, which we added in each race as horses you should consider using in exotic combos, included the three that made the race’s $183.70 triactor—Frenchfrysnvinegar, Action Broadway and Autumn Escapade. Jersey As raced in the rear and found that spot so comfortable she resided there until the mile’s end. We did not bet this race.
Our choice defied the dead-on favorite, going off around 5-2. She had a tougher trip, fanning three wide in an attempt to catch the favorite but finished second behind the favorite, which paid 2.90. We did not bet this race, which resulted in an exacta worth 5.30.
Our choice, Pirouette Hanover, went off a hard 5-1. She had to negotiate an outside trip, getting into a deadly duel in the stretch, contributing to suicide fractions which allowed the favorite to sweep pass those two late to win. We played to win; she finished third.
Hurrikane Kingcole went off a hard 7-1 and got a good position early. However, the favorite was monstrous. This freaky two-year-old colt made a three-wide brush to the top and ate up real estate to the tune of becoming the fastest two-year-old standardbred ever, winning in 1:49. We played to win; he finished third.
Royal Shyster got rolling at 18-1 and looked fabulous getting the lead from the 8 hole right off the gate. He stayed there until the half, when the favorite took the lead from him and stayed there until the 7/8ths, when the third choice, on our exotic-material list, at 4-1, closed to win it. We played to win; he finished fifth.
On Sept. 3 we suggested you play Anndrovette. She won and paid $19. In this race, she was the celebrated public choice. We liked Maureen Rocks and so did a lot of other people, sending her off at an unappetizing 3-1. She raced on the outside as she had the week before but could not catch the favorite. The horse finishing second was on our exotic-material list, paying $13.10 to place, having gone off at 29-1. We did not bet this race; she finished third.
We had two conditions for this one. First our choice, Lucky Jim, had to go off at juicy odds. The second condition was out of our hands. He had to at least give us a shot by racing without breaking. The first condition was satisfied at 8-1 but he broke making a three-wide move only 4 lengths off the leader, who was the favorite and probably locked up Horse of the Year honors by winning. We played to win; he finished seventh (never regaining his gait).
Here we expected a favorite to win. In fact, we thought we would be looking at a world-record mile considering Drop The Ball blew away her elim field and was in the best of shape. However, the co-second choice (on our exotic-material list) was far better, passing her and strolling away with the win. We did not bet this race; she finished second.
As we have most of the second half of the season, we figured Manofmanymissions would win if he did not break stride. Still, he went off the second favorite to the colt that won the other elim for this division. In front at three-quarters, he broke, and the favorite soared on to win. We did not bet this race; he finished seventh.
This was to be the race that made history for us. We had to beat a monster of a filly, the prohibitive choice. On the toteboard, our choice, Pantholops, was 99-1. Her actual odds were 152-1. She was disadvantaged having to come from post 10 but that did not stop us because her odds were way better than her chances. As it turned out, she raced well, mostly on the outside with cover, though she, like the rest of the field, were powerless against the big favorite. We played to win; she finished fourth.
Here we were simply wrong about how our choice would race. We expected far more from Fashion Delight than he delivered. He was 60-1. However, we were right to think the highly touted favorite would lose. He lost to the third choice, though only by a nose. If our choice came out of the race all right we stand by our opinion he will return for a strong four-year-old season. We played to win; he finished eighth (by only 3 lengths; a mere 6 lengths separated the 10-horse field at the wire).
The public thought as we thought they would think, making our choice, We Will See, a solid choice, close in the wagering to the second choice. We expected a powerful mile by this guy, who at four, dominated older horses most of the season. But he surrendered to a pair of horses we cashed in on this year, the winner being the longest shot of the evening at 8-1. We did not bet this race; he finished third.
Each of the races above are linked to review stories by Ray Cotolo, a contributor to our causes for harness racing success.
Do not despair. The major stakes season still has some gas in its tank and we did not wager so foolishly as to be damaged by the less-than-generous public. We will return to the stakes and overnight wars in our Thursday blog and never consider rehab.
We thank everyone for following us live the night of the Breeders Crown and we thank the Hambletonian Society, handlers of the magnificent series, for all of its cooperation and support for the wagering side of the audience, as we addressed through TwinSpires.
(Cartoon by Thom Pye)
61 comments:
It is a website that has a post about ACUHO photo galleries shine a light on the association's activities. You can check appointment setter to manage your technology skills easily.It also works for members that have dedicated their lives. They have a detail of spotlight Washington State university for semi and private bathroom. Join it.
If more people that write articles really concerned themselves with writing great content like you, more readers would be interested in their writings. Thank you for caring about your content.
Commercial Services Decatur GA
Hi there! Nice stuff, do keep me posted when you post again something like this!
Loading Services Bethesda MD
craigslist pittsburgh
This is best info i got.I like your blog because you give me right info.
Free Loan Calculator
Online Loan Calculators
Rent Calculator
Real Estate Calculators
BMI Calculator
BMR Calculator Or Basal Metabolism Calculator
🚀📖 Discover more on this fascinating topic by checking out our latest blog article! 📖🚀
This post provides valuable insights and practical tips that can make a real difference in your life. Whether you're looking to learn, be inspired, or simply stay informed, our blog has something for everyone.
Win1000$
Thank you for being willing to provide us with information. I know you are genuinely concerned about us, so we can always appreciate what you have accomplished here. chauffeur service dubai
Hey there! 🚀 Interesting read, thanks for sharing! How about considering today's harness racing trends? 😄🏇-cassia tora
"Great read! 📖 It's fascinating how horse racing connects us to history and tradition. 🏇🌟"-bentonitehttpsuppliers
Again, I want to thank you for all of the information you share.Well written post. The article piqued my curiosity much. high jewellery store online
There is pleasure involved while your website or weblog launches. That is, until it dawns on you that no one exists save your self. Appropriate weblog put up concern.
digital marketing agency melbourne
Great read! Your insights on every topic are eye-opening.
Thanks the author again for their work and invite them to respond to your thoughts.
Platypus Finance Recovers 90% of Assets Lost in Exploit: The Kangaroo Times: Crypto News
This is a fantastic post. Everyone is an expert at what they do, but those who do nothing with their leisure time, I find it to be extremely admirable, and you are the one who instantly brings joy to others when you post. pet health tips
Thanks the author again for their work and invite them to respond to your thoughts.
The Kangaroo Times: Crypto News
Impressive work! Your creativity shines through your writing. Keep it up – I can't wait to see what you come up with next!
Hey there! 🚀 I found this read super interesting. Your take on the article adds a fresh perspective! 😄📚-bentonite suppliers
Hey there! 🚀 Interesting read. I've always loved harness racing. Did you catch any live races recently? 🐎-Wholesale crystals
"Great read! 📚 It's amazing how horse racing connects generations. 🏇" -jewellery design
Excellent Article George
Celebrityhat
Excellent Article George
Celebrityhat
Celebrityhat
Adeptimize is the best company in the USAdeptimize
"Nice insights! It's like harnessing tips from the past for today's races. What if we apply these strategies to modern tracks? 🏇✨"
-fish shop
Very nice content
Any Stories App Download
Teema Staffing Agency applauds the insightful article on overcoming betting addiction. Just as overcoming habits is vital, so is ensuring a smooth transition back to work. For nurses returning to the healthcare field, consider our nurse checklist to streamline the re-entry process seamlessly
Swenson Snow Removal, your local snow slip and fall expert, applauds the insightful perspective on overcoming betting challenges. Just like rehab transforms habits, our expertise transforms winter safety. Trust us to clear your paths, preventing slips and falls
Reading your blog was so much fun. It was really simple to read and extremely nicely written. Ford Taurus with Driver in Jeddah
glass plates
Decorate your kitchen and home with us!
Hello there! Good stuff, please let me know when you publish anything similar again! home movers
If you're looking for information about Tesla solar panel installation in Texas, it's important to note that Tesla solar panels are typically sold and installed through Tesla's own solar division. However, if you are specifically interested in solar panel installation services in Texas and prefer a company called ExcelCG Solar, you might want to consider reaching out to them directly for more information
Great article, thanks for sharing
Excellent post. Thank you for being you. Simple Fast Funnels is the key to success for my online business. Our services are remarkably fast, and have a blast creating high converting funnels. https://www.simplefastfunnels.com/
Thanks for shedding light on this. It's so well-explained! I've been thoroughly impressed by the impeccable services offered by Label Supply Mart. Packaging influences customer satisfaction! The sealing solutions at Label Supply Mart not only secure shipments but also contribute to a positive unboxing experience. Enhance customer delight with Label Supply Mart sealing options! https://www.labelsupplymart.com/
Your words resonate so beautifully! Rachel's tea has been a true game-changer for me when it comes to digestive problems. The carefully selected blend of herbs works synergistically to address a variety of issues, from bloating to indigestion. It's become my go-to solution for a happy and healthy digestive system.
https://rachelstea.com/
https://sdkstvincentius1sby.sch.id/
https://univ.unakim.ac.id/product/rajacuan/
https://143.198.129.147/
"Thank you for sharing this valuable information. Your blog post is truly engaging and informative, it gives readers a meaningful experience.
giving a lot of information
Fantastic Blog. A real treasure in the field of digital marketing is Simple Fast Funnels. Their offerings resemble a quick route to prosperity. It's quite enjoyable to use and extremely quick. It is highly recommended by me. For anyone hoping to increase their internet visibility and increase conversions, this is the ideal answer. https://www.simplefastfunnels.com/
protective eyewear
I am really enjoying the design and layout of your blog.
7. Your generosity and optimism are a real boon. My first choice for anyone in need of labelling supplies is Label Supply Mart. They are outstanding in all areas, from their wide selection of products to their superb customer service to their dedication to sustainability. You won't be disappointed if you give them a shot! https://www.labelsupplymart.com/
Excellent Blog. Label Supply Mart is a fantastic resource for all your labeling needs. Whether you’re organizing your home, office, or business, this mart has got you covered. The range of labels available is truly impressive, catering to various sizes, shapes, and purposes. https://www.labelsupplymart.com/
2. You constantly provide excellent stuff on your blog. We at Label Supply Mart have seen personally how a product's perceived worth is increased by outstanding label quality. Selecting premium labels is about more than just appearances; it's about making an impression that lasts. Visit Label Supply Mart to explore our selection of premium labels for a more sophisticated product presentation! https://www.labelsupplymart.com/
Your encouraging remarks are a soul-soothing salve. Working with Label Supply Mart has been a delight, and they provide the most precise labeling options around. Their knowledgeable staff goes above and above to understand the unique demands of each client, providing precisely customized solutions with painstaking attention to detail.
https://www.labelsupplymart.com/
Experience the epitome of waxing
https://www.waxbar.at/waxing-graz
I adore how you deftly combine entertainment and knowledge. It is obvious which tea to choose for digestive health: Rachel's Tea's blend of nettle and ginger creates the ideal balance to facilitate easy digestion and support a healthy gut.Rachel's Tea is unique because of its unrelenting dedication to client satisfaction.
https://rachelstea.com/
Fantastic blog! Label Supply Mart's wide range of products, first-rate customer support, and unwavering dedication to quality make them my number one pick for any labeling requirements. Try them out without hesitation! To learn more, go to https://www.labelsupplymart.com
We are grateful for your consistent excellence! Because of our dedication to preserving superior quality at reasonable costs, Label Supply Mart is a reliable option for your labeling requirements. Check out our items at https://www.labelsupplymart.com/ to see how much they provide.
Your writing style is so engaging! Rachel's Digestive Tea and Slim Detox Tea are my go-to choices for achieving my health goals! Not only are they delicious, but they also work wonders for improving gut health and aiding in weight reduction. I've noticed a significant improvement in my digestion and overall comfort since incorporating these teas into my routine.
https://rachelstea.com/
I found your article on leadership in administration very inspiring. For more leadership tips, check out baddiehub.
If you're looking for a Roofing Company in Fort Worth, Excel Roofing is a good option to consider. They likely offer a range of roofing services including repairs, replacements, and possibly new installations. It's always a good idea to check their reviews and credentials to ensure they meet your specific needs.
I appreciate you sharing this. I had no prior knowledge of this element.I'm addicted to Rachel's Tea! This divine combination not only fulfills my palate but also helps me achieve my health objectives, especially regarding intestinal health. My digestion and general comfort have much improved since I started drinking this tea on a regular basis. It's now my go-to method for fostering equilibrium and internal wellbeing. I promise that after trying Rachel's Tea, your stomach will appreciate it!
https://rachelstea.com/
On gloomy days, your website is a bright spot! Label Supply Mart’s commitment to innovation ensures our product line constantly evolves to meet customer needs. Explore our offerings at https://www.labelsupplymart.com/
City Walk by Meraas combines urban sophistication with modern living, featuring intelligent architecture and low-rise pavilion-style buildings. The residences offer diverse unit sizes and stunning views of Dubai, with access to a landscaped courtyard, gym, and roof decks with swimming pools. The development’s contemporary retail hub and elegant design enhance its unique, vibrant community atmosphere.
To book apartments in City Walk Apartments in City Walk by Meraas
Emaar Properties presents Club Place at Dubai Hills Estate, featuring luxurious 1, 2, and 3-bedroom apartments with scenic views and a wealth of amenities. Strategically located between Downtown Dubai and Dubai Marina, it offers excellent connectivity and a comfortable lifestyle. For more information about projects in Dubai Hills Estate, Contact Real Expert Experts at Haus 51 and for more info on Project Club Place click here.
Your passion for this topic is evident! Labeling is a breeze with Label Supply Mart's user-friendly website, quick shipping, and seamless shopping experience. Their customer service is top-notch, always ready to assist with any needs. Experience our commitment to customer satisfaction at https://www.labelsupplymart.com/.
Thanks for highlighting this important topic! I am thoroughly impressed with Label Supply Mart’s services, especially their sealing solutions that enhance the unboxing experience while ensuring cargo security. Upgrade your packaging solutions today at https://www.labelsupplymart.com/
Amazing post. Your post echoes my thoughts exactly. I've been on the lookout for a service that could simplify the process of setting up marketing funnels for my online business, and Simple Fast Funnels exceeded my expectations. Their intuitive platform made it easy for me to create a custom funnel that suits my business needs. What's more, the speed at which I could launch my funnel and start generating leads was remarkable https://simplefastfunnels.com/
Thanks for sharing your expertise on this subject. As a small business owner, I was initially overwhelmed by the idea of marketing funnels. However, Simple Fast Funnels made it accessible and understandable, helping me drive more conversions https://simplefastfunnels.com/
Best business phone service solution for your office with Telenet Solutions. Telenet Solutions offer the best business phone systems for business.Telenet Solutions
I love the way you laid this out. Constipation was a huge issue for me, but since I started drinking Rachel's Tea, especially the chamomile blend, things have improved. It's not harsh like some laxatives and helps my system move more naturally. I feel more regular and less bloated, and it’s such a relief to have a gentle, herbal remedy that works.https://rachelstea.com/
7. Your writing style is engaging and makes learning enjoyable. The simplicity of Simple Fast Funnels platform and the rapid implementation are a game changer. Plus, the entire process is enjoyable, which is a rare find. I've witnessed significant improvements in my online conversions since I began using their services. If you're seeking a quick, efficient, and fun way to boost your online business, Simple Fast Funnels is the solution. https://www.simplefastfunnels.com/
Post a Comment