Weekend Handicapping

Since we’re officially mired in the post-Breeders’ Cup doldrums, with very few big races on the horizon, I figured I would devote this week’s column to handicapping, handicapping and more handicapping.

Given that my free picks have been awful recently this may, in fact, constitute cruel and unusual punishment… only time will tell.

Let’s start with the 7th race from the “Big A” on Friday:

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COMMENTS: The strategy here is to beat the Mike Repole/Todd Pletcher entry 3-HOW DO I WIN. While the son of Corinthian probably deserves to be favored, the morning line of 3-5 is a bit low, especially since How Do I Win had everything his own way last time. Frankly, I think 2-EYE WITNESS is quicker from the gate than the morning line choice; could wire the field. 5-KING AND CRUSADER is the only horse that has shown any aptitude rallying from off the pace.

BET(S): SHOW on 2 & 5 (looking for a negative show pool).

Below are some other weekend Win Factor plays…

FRIDAY (11/18)

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COMMENTS: 7-TUESDAYS WITH MOM is a Win Factor Report Prime Overlay possibility.

BET(S): WIN on 7 at odds of 1-2 or greater.

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COMMENTS: 4-PLAYBOY MANSION is a Win Factor Report Prime Overlay possibility.

BET(S): WIN on 4 at odds of 1-1 or greater.

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COMMENTS: 5-BEACON BEACH is a Win Factor Report Prime Overlay possibility.

BET(S): WIN on 5 at odds of 4-5 or greater.

SATURDAY (11/19)

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COMMENTS: 5-SOCIALSAUL has recorded blistering early speed rations (ESRs) of -14 and -15 in each of his last two races, yet he’s been beaten by a total of just 3 ¾ lengths in those contests. The pace doesn’t figure to be as demanding on Saturday and I love the fact that Ramon Dominguez is back in the saddle; upset choice.

BET(S): WIN on 5 at odds of 6-1 or greater.

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COMMENTS: 9-BOBS TIEBREAKER is a Win Factor Report Prime Overlay possibility. 4-MOUNTAIN THUNDER looks like the top threat.

BET(S): WIN on 9 at odds of 1-1 or greater. WIN on 4 at odds of 9-2 or greater.

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COMMENTS: 7-RUFFY TRICK is a Win Factor Report Key Selection.

BET(S): WIN on 7 at odds of 7-5 or greater.

Derek Simon’s 2011 Free Selection Statistics

Races (Selections): 61 (67)
Wins: 22
Rate: 36.1%
Return: $156.60
ROI: +16.87%

(This year's published selections through 11/17/11.)

Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager and the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).