Derek Simon's Free Plays for Monday, March 5, 2012

HOU1: 3-ABBIE’S ON FIRE recorded a -11 early speed ration (ESR) against better in his latest. Although his only lifetime victory came on the grass, I think his style and back class will serve him well in this spot. 5-HAPPY TOO STAR ran deceptively well last time and could offer value. 1-TESSA’S MAGIC fits well against the likes of these.

Suggested Wager(s): WIN on 3. Lost.
Optional Play(s): Exacta Key Box 3 with 1,5. Lost.

HOU2: 1-PRIVATE NATIVE ran very well against better last time; big shot against these. 2-TRISKEL appears to be improving. 3-DELLA MARIE could win with her best.

Suggested Wager(s): WIN on 1. Lost.

TUP7: I was impressed with 3-STEAMY STORY’s latest effort. He’s eight years old now, but he still knows how to find his way to the winner’s circle. 8-IMA POET just won in wire-to-wire fashion and must be considered again today. 7-ANGELIC FIDDLER won six races last year.

Suggested Wager(s): WIN & PLACE on 3. Scratched.

WRD2: Love 7-DEVIL HER DIAMOND in this spot. Not only can she get the early lead against these (although she doesn’t need to), but her race on Feb. 11 should serve as a great prep.

Suggested Wager(s): WIN on 7. $4.80.

MEA10: 8-CAPTAIN GREG is a Win Factor Report “Prime Overlay.”

Suggested Wager(s): WIN & PLACE on 8. $3.20 (average).

MR7: 7-WINSMITH JESS is a Win Factor Report “Speed Racer.”

Suggested Wager(s): WIN on 7 at odds of 1-1 or greater. Lost.

Derek’s Final 2011 Free Pick Statistics

Races (Selections): 69 (76)
Wins: 25
Rate: 36.2%
Return: $170.90
ROI: +12.43%

2012 Statistics

Races (Selections): 7 (7)
Wins: 2
Rate: 28.6%
Return: $9.00
ROI: -35.71%

(This year's published selections through 3/2/2012)