Post One Poppycock

Start of the 2010 Kentucky Derby

We hear it every year: Post position one is the kiss of death in the Kentucky Derby — the equivalent of Samuel Taylor Coleridge's albatross, Edgar Alan Poe’s raven or a movie that includes “directed by Michael Bay” in the opening credits.

When Lookin At Lucky drew the rail in the 2010 Run for the Roses, trainer Bob Baffert looked like he’d been punched in the stomach… and then kicked in the groin.

“I just don't remember a horse of this caliber being in the one hole since I've come here,” the three-time Derby-winning trainer said. “I'd rather be outside, less things going on. You can get caught down there and hit the brakes.”

The post one pity party continued in 2011.

“Not a good place to be,” noted trainer William “Jinks” Fires after his horse (Archarcharch) was assigned the first spot in the Derby starting gate last year. “I’ve never liked the one hole, but you got to do what you got to do.

“We’d like to lay just off the pace and with the one hole if you don’t go with them a ways you’ll get shuffled way back,” said Fires, whose colt had rallied from ninth — of 13 — at the first call in its final Kentucky Derby prep, the Arkansas Derby.

If you ask me (and if you didn’t, please just pretend you did) all this railing about the rail is silly.

Simply put, there is no such thing as a post-one bias in the Kentucky Derby — it’s the tooth fairy, Santa Claus and a thought-provoking episode of the “Maury Show” all rolled into one.

Here’s what racing analyst Randy Moss says about this modern day myth:

“First off, the No. 1 post position in the Kentucky Derby is not a death sentence, no matter what you read,” Moss wrote in a 2010 blog post entitled “Is he finally lookin' at lucky?”

“If you have the time, consult YouTube to watch the video of Derby runnings from 2003-2009, and you won't see meaningful early trouble for any of those rail-drawn horses,” Moss continued. “As a matter of fact, in each of those years, the horses breaking from the inside post outran their projected finishes based on final odds (average odds ranking 15th, average finish 9.5).”

Let me quit clapping for a moment and add that a host of other data I’ve gathered backs up Moss’ contention that the one hole is not instant Derby death.

Let’s start by looking at the post position stats as a whole (from 1900 to 2011):

(Click on image to enlarge)

Notice that, not only does the number one post position have a positive impact value — a ratio popularized by Dr. William Quirin that measures actual wins in relation to expected wins (in this case, the success rate divided by the par) — but  the ROI is better than average as well.

I know what some of you are thinking: Well, sure Derek, that’s overall. The real problem with breaking from the rail is when there are a lot of Derby entrants and the auxiliary gate is used. In those cases, the horse stuck in the one hole needs to veer right at the start in order to avoid hitting the inner rail, which inevitably leads to bumping and herding… and a rotten trip.

Alrighty then! Let’s take a gander at the Derby post position stats when the auxiliary gate has been utilized (fields of 15 or more horses):

(Click on image to enlarge)

Talk about things that make you go hmm: check out that impact value. Far from being a disadvantage, the numbers indicate that breaking from the rail when the auxiliary gate is used is actually a major plus.

Aah, but once again I hear the cries of dissent.

“Yeah, but that’s the past,” the critics wail. “Nowadays, it’s impossible to win from the rail.”

Why winning the Derby from post one — on the same track (Churchill Downs has changed little over the years), under the same circumstances (the race conditions, distance and starting point have remained consistent for decades) — would be a Herculean feat now when it wasn’t in the recent past eludes me, but I’ll play along.

Here’s a look at Derbies with 15 horses or more run within the past 30 years:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here for the first time we see a subpar impact value, yet the ROI is still very strong, comparatively speaking. What's more, 27 test cases is hardly enough data on which to base a solid conclusion, especially since the expected win rate for each post is only about five percent.

So, after next week’s Derby draw, when the inevitable crying and moaning about the one hole begins in earnest, remember these statistics.

The truth shall set you free.

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