Why I’ll Have Another Won’t
After
every Kentucky Derby, the question is inevitably asked: “Is this the year that
another Triple Crown champion is crowned?” And every year — for 32 years — the answer
has been the same: no.
Will
this year be any different?
Veteran
turf writer Steve Haskin seems to think so.
“What
can prevent [I’ll Have Another] from finally ending the Triple Crown drought?”
Haskin asks in the May 10 installation of “Hangin’
With Haskin” at Bloodhorse.com. “This is going to sound sacrilegious and
presumptuous, but the answer is nothing. At least nothing that he can control.
Frankly, this colt has the sharp tactical speed to shorten up in the Preakness
and the pedigree to relish the mile and a half of the Belmont. His fate could
very well be out of his hands and that the only thing that can stop him is one
of the Derby starters who were prevented from running their best race jumping
up and running the race of their life at Pimlico or Belmont. And if I’ll Have
Another should get by the Preakness, there will be a fresh Union Rags waiting
for him at Belmont.
“But all of that just may be moot. I’ll Have Another could
simply be the best 3-year-old in the country at any distance, and as of now
there doesn’t appear to be any reason why he isn’t.”
Not surprisingly, I’ll Have Another’s trainer Doug
O’Neill agrees with Haskin’s assessment.
“He’s
three for three this year and he’s shown an amazing amount of will to win as we
keep stretching him,” O’Neill said. “He travels beautifully, I know he’s got
the stamina, and I know he’s got the heart. We just need some luck maintaining
what we’ve got now. There will be Derby horses coming back who will be tough
and others who are fresh and talented who passed the Derby. But I don’t see any
reason why he can’t repeat his current form. He knows how to conserve his
energy. Paul (owner Reddam) is a hockey fan, and he always says, ‘It’s only the
first period; we still have two more periods to go.’”
So,
are Haskin and O’Neill right? Will I’ll Have Another become just the 12th
thoroughbred — the first since Affirmed in 1978 — to capture the Kentucky
Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes?
Well,
if history is any guide… no way, no how.
Look,
we learned in Louisville that I’ll Have Another can rate off of fast fractions
and still finish (previously, I’d had my doubts), but what we didn’t learn was
whether or not the Derby champ can run well on just two weeks rest. True, that’s
an open question for nearly all the horses gathered at Old Hilltop — only
longshot Guyana Star Dweej has ever wheeled back that quickly — but the
question is especially pertinent in regard to I’ll Have Another, who raced
exactly twice in the 243 days prior to the Run for the Roses.
What’s
more, I’ll Have Another had shockwave therapy in late April. And while the
colt’s connections have treated this with the same degree of seriousness that
one might approach a bar fight with Shia LaBeouf (“It's
just a pulse that brings blood to an area,” explained owner Paul Reddam), the
fact is shockwave therapy is a medical procedure — one designed, at least in
part, to reduce pain.
Now
if a horse that raced only a couple of times in eight months prior to the Derby
needed medical attention to stay fit and loose in Louisville, how confident can
one be that he will be able to stay on the muscle in Maryland?
The fact
is every Triple Crown winner won at least one race other than the Preakness on 14
days rest or less during their sophomore season and only War Admiral failed to
attempt a similar quick turnaround as a juvenile. I understand that training
techniques are different now — starting more than once a month is thought to be
highly ambitious — but, just like anything else, experience matters and I’ll
Have Another simply doesn’t have any when it comes to racing on limited rest.
It
gets worse.
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| (Click on image to enlarge) |
Although Derby winners have proven to be very potent
at Pimlico, having captured the second jewel of the Triple Crown 29 times in 71
tries since the order of the Triple Crown sequence was finally set in 1932,
only one of the past six Derby champs with fewer than four previous starts as
a three-year-old managed to win in Baltimore.
The
one was Big Brown... and he paid a whopping $2.40.
It
also doesn’t help that trainer Doug O’Neill is zero-for-the-last-five-years (or
more) when attempting to win a graded route race on two weeks rest or less,
whereas his main rival, Bob Baffert, trainer of Bodemeister (the Kentucky Derby
runner-up), is two-for-five during the same time period.
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| (Click on image to enlarge) |
It gets even worse.
Though
I’ve written extensively about the controversy regarding how fast last weekend’s
Kentucky Derby actually was (see “What’s Speed Got to Do with It”),
even if one accepts Beyer’s low 101 speed figure for the race, that number is
still quite a bit higher than what I’ll Have Another recorded in his final
pre-Derby prep (95 in the Santa Anita Derby).
Since
1992, when Beyer figures were first featured in the Daily Racing Form, Derby winners that improved their final-prep
Beyer by more than five points in the Run for the Roses are 0-for-8 in the
Preakness. Using the same criteria, but substituting the Brisnet speed figures
for the Beyer numbers, results in an equally abysmal 0-4 record.
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| (Click on image to enlarge) |
But I’m
not betting on it.
‘New Shooters’ Often Misfire
Going
hand and hand with the notion that returning to the races too quickly — within three
weeks by today’s standards — causes horses unimaginable grief and stress, is
the idea that rest and relaxation produces peak performances.
Well,
apparently the “new shooters” in the Preakness Stakes have yet to receive the memo.
Since
1991, just three (of 123) horses that did not start in the Kentucky Derby won
the Preakness Stakes — not exactly a resounding endorsement for “freshness.”
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| (Click on image to enlarge) |
Weekend Win Factor Reports
05/18/12 Pimlico Race Course
05/19/12 Pimlico Race Course
05/19/12 Simulcast Report (top plays from various tracks)
05/18/12 Pimlico Race Course
05/19/12 Pimlico Race Course
05/19/12 Simulcast Report (top plays from various tracks)
10 comments:
It's all a matter of luck! Life is a game...and maybe all we need to do is to find the secret code for "success" and not to cheat.
Great blog and podcast as always. Bode slaughters them for me...I hope he goes EVEN harder and destroys it. Have taken $3.20, and I think that's big overs, he's $1.75 in my mind. Go bode go, go Derek go!
One of my favorite quotes (by Albert Einstein) is: “God doesn’t play dice with the universe.” In other words, there is an order to the world, a cause for every effect. Now, we may not always understand that cause — chess teaches us that, without the aid of computers, we can only identify and process so many scenarios — but that doesn’t mean that a cause doesn’t exist.
However, I think trying to find a “key” to the mysteries of racing or the world is generally futile. Einstein, who I referenced above, spent the latter part of his life trying to unify the various laws of physics — to no avail.
The fact is we can still predict certain events with a reasonable degree of accuracy without knowing every detail pertaining to that event. This is what meteorologists do and, in my opinion, it is what horse handicappers and sports gamblers should strive to do as well.
It is luck. In the derby with 20 horses, it is first man/horse to find the hole usually wins. After that it is the belief in a horse. Not everyone has the same beliefs. You do a little research and listen to some experts and you end up with a horse you believe in. Although, having the right jockey is always a plus.
Many Critics think that "I will have another" cannot win the triple crown. I think that for the first time in 32 years; they are all wrong. It is my expert opinion that " I will have another" will win the triple crown. Why? first, he can run short, middle and long distances very well. Second, He beat the best horses out of this race already, so it is the other horses the ones that have to improve performance. Third, I will have another won the Derby with a rookie jockie; this means that this horse is a freak, because it was not the jockey that won the race but the horse itself. Fourth, people like to see horses running in front and showing a lot speed like Bodemeister. However, the best horse is the one that finish first at the end of the race not in between and I will have another love to win races. Fifth, He ran better times than any other horse at every distance he ran during prior races. This mean he is the horse to beat. Finally, we have been waiting for a horse like " I will have another" to step up and win the triple crown. He have all the ingridients to get the job done such as speed, strenghts, stamina, and the will power to fight the race to the end. He will be very hard to beat for any other horse that doesn't have these skills. My choice to win the triple crown is " I will have another" then the fight for second place will be between Creative Cause, Went the Day Well, Bodemeister, Pretention and Cozzine.
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