Will I’ll Have Another Win the Triple Crown?
I’ll
Have Another’s Triple Crown quest has become downright Shakespearean: it is to be
or not to be. Of course, the racing fan side of me — my left side as it turns
out — desperately wants to see history made in Elmont, NY on Saturday. Yet, the
value bettor side of me is screaming for an upset.
Let’s
be clear: I’ll Have Another will be an underlay this weekend. Given the inevitable
souvenir ticket purchases — you can even buy them online — he almost has to be. Plus, as we’ve seen in years
past, when a Triple Crown is on the line, rational betting often takes a leave
of absence.
There
have been 30 horses that came to the Big Apple in search of eternal glory — almost
all of them were bet like they’d already achieved it. The last winner of the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness not to be favored
in the Belmont Stakes was Assault in 1946… and he wound up winning the Triple
Crown. Still, as the chart below reflects, a $2 win bet on all of the Triple Crown hopefuls in the Belmont has produced an
ROI of -41.5 percent, including a -78.42 percent ROI over the past 50 years.
 |
(Click on image to enlarge)
|
For
a detailed analysis of the Test of Champions, including my suggested wagers,
check out the video below (and remember to get your Ultimate Belmont Stakes
Handicapping Package, which includes my special Belmont Betting Guide, at Brisnet.com):
Free Pace Profile Report
Click HERE for a free Pace Profile Report for races 6-11 from Belmont Park on Saturday, June 9, 2012.
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The passage describes the tension surrounding I’ll Have Another’s attempt to win the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. The author feels torn between two perspectives: as a racing fan, they hope to witness history, but as a value bettor, they recognize that betting on the horse may not be profitable. Because a Triple Crown attempt generates huge excitement, many casual fans buy “souvenir” bets, which drives the odds lower than they should be. This means I’ll Have Another is likely to be an underlay..
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