Analyzing Arlington
With a great
card on tap at Arlington Park on Saturday, including a trio of Grade I stakes
topped by the Arlington Million, I figured my column this week should focus on
handicapping.
And focus it
does.
By clicking on
the various links below you will receive Brisnet past performances that include
my speed rations and computerized fair odds — absolutely free.
But that’s
not all. For a limited time only — and by “limited” I mean for as long as this
column is posted, which could be years — you will also receive my Win Factor
Report, some poignant analysis on the first leg of the Pick-6 (race 6) and pace
pars guaranteed to make your handicapping more fun and add extra sizzle to your
love life*.
*These statements have not been evaluated by the FDA or, well, anyone other than me… and, frankly, even I don’t believe ‘em.
*These statements have not been evaluated by the FDA or, well, anyone other than me… and, frankly, even I don’t believe ‘em.
Anyway,
without further doo-doo, here are the promised links:
AP Past Performances w/speed rations and fair odds (race 6)
AP Past Performances w/speed rations and fair odds (race 6)
Arlington Park Pace Profile Race of the Day
The sixth
event at Arlington Park on Saturday, Aug. 18, is an intriguing affair on many
levels. Carded for Illinois-breds which “have never won $8,800 once other than maiden;
claiming; or starter or have never won two races” (don’t you just love reading
race conditions, where the sentences run longer than the horses?), this race provides
a perfect illustration of the power of pace handicapping.
My Win
Factor Report grades it as follows:
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Let’s take a
look at each of the top contenders:
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on image to enlarge)
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The first
thing that strikes me about Wild Command is that he’s a frontrunner with a
closer’s pace figures. The -9 early speed ration (ESR) that he recorded last
time was the fastest of the 10 such figures showing in his past performances and
it resulted in a 16 ¼-length drubbing against similar foes. I don’t expect
Saturday’s pace scenario to be much easier… or Wild Command’s performance to be
much better.
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He’s run
some good races in the past, including an above-par performance despite racing
five-wide on the turn on July 27. True, his last race was a clunker, but the
son of Powerscourt (winner of the Arlington Million in 2005 after being
disqualified from the top spot in 2004) returns on just eight days rest, indicating
that he may be ready to return to his best form.
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| (Click on image to enlarge) |
Love this
guy’s last race, although the surface switch from Belmont’s dirt to Arlington’s
Polytrack greatly troubles me. Adding to my concern is the fact that
Transplendent has run just one good race. Can he win on Saturday? Absolutely.
Is he a good bet at 5-2? Absolutely not.
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The pace
figures tell the story: Not only does Jaguar Ridge have the best overall ESRs
in the field, he has the best LSRs (late speed rations) too. What’s more, his
last dirt route try was sensational (relatively speaking), featuring a -14 ESR
and a -8 LSR.
He’s 5-1 on
the morning line; 5-1 on my Win Factor Report… I make him 5-2 and the favorite
to win the opening leg of the Pick-6.
Pace Pars for Arlington Park
Polytrack
Sprints: -8
ESR, -11 LSR.
Routes: -10
ESR, -7 LSR.
Turf
Sprints: -4
ESR, -1 LSR.
Routes: -2
ESR, -1 LSR.
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| (Click on image to enlarge) |
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