Santa Anita Stats

With the opening of the Santa Anita winter meeting this week, I thought it might be a good time to analyze the Great Race Place — what kind of horses win there and what kind of horses don’t.

In a word, the name of the game at Santa Anita since the Pro-Ride surface was removed is speed — as in early and blazing.

But before we get to that, let’s first take a peek at the configuration of the track and get acquainted with some digits that every bettor should know — the track takeout rates:

(Click on image to enlarge)

In terms of the Santa Anita speed “bias” (I’ve grown to hate that word due to its widespread overuse), below are my speed ration pars and wire-to-wire win rates for both dirt and turf sprints/routes, along with and some other interesting data:

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

As you can see, the advantage of early speed on the dirt is pronounced, with over a third of those races won in gate-to-wire fashion — despite the fact that the average winning early speed ration (ESR) is healthy in both cases.

Hence, it should come as no surprise that shippers from other speed-favoring venues do very well at the Arcadia, Cal. strip. Among the tracks with the better ROIs are:

Belmont Park (+61%)

Calder/Gulfstream Park (+141%)

Remington Park (+400%)

Saratoga (+313%)

Conversely, when horses ship to Santa Anita from tracks that favor stretch runners, the results, like the Swallows of San Juan Capistrano, go south for the winter:

Churchill Downs (-52%)

Del Mar (-34%)

Keeneland (-45%)

So, when looking for winners at Santa Anita this winter, insist on horses that can be in the mix early. If recent history is any guide, many of those horses will be around late as well.

Weekend Win Factor Reports

Saturday

Aqueduct
Fair Grounds
Hawthorne
Laurel
Parx Racing