Kentucky Derby Recap & Triple Crown Preview
The Effect of Pace
I talked a lot about the effect that pace can have on the
outcome of a race prior to the Kentucky Derby and I think the Derby itself
graphically illustrated some of the points I made — or tried to make.
Of particular interest to me was Vyjack, who entered the 139th
Run for the Roses after recording two subpar early speed rations (ESRs) in the
Grade I Wood and the Grade III Gotham.
Although poor ESRs don’t necessarily entail Derby irrelevance — horses that earned a positive ESR in their latest prep went winless
for the sixth year in a row this year, but Golden Soul did hit the board — they can seriously compromise the chances of certain
horses.
As it turned out, Vyjack was that kind of horse.
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Though the son of Into Mischief is clearly a closer
(say that five times fast), notice that he was within three lengths of the
leader at the first call in four of his five races prior to the Derby. However,
he was able to establish that forward position by running behind some awfully
soft fractions (witness all the red ESRs)… which is why and how his troubles
began.
Let me explain: The Kentucky Derby, you see, typically features a
-10 ESR, meaning that for a horse like Vyjack to be within three lengths of the
lead at the first call, it would need to record an ESR of about -7.
Vyjack had never earned an ESR that low; in fact, his
lowest ESR prior to the first Saturday in May was a -5, which he recorded on
Dec. 9. And that race produced the
worst late speed ration (LSR) of the gelding’s career to that point — despite the
fact that he won impressively that day.
So what happened in Louisville?
Well, Vyjack established his typical position early — he
was 3 ½ lengths back at the first call — but either the horse, or the jockey (Garrett
Gomez), or both, got suckered by an abnormally fast pace (the -16 ESR recorded by
pacesetter Palace Malice was the second-lowest since 1896); as a result, Vyjack started much faster, relatively speaking, than he was accustomed to and backed up
like a public restroom at a chili cook-off.
Now, don’t get me wrong: horses can and do perform well
even when they are taken out of their comfort zone… but they are the exception,
not the rule.
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Handicapping the
Triple Crown
Once, as I reclined on an easy chair, sipping a Michelob
Ultra (gotta watch the carbs), with a copy of the Brisnet Ultimate Past
Performances spread out on my lap, I was asked to explain what I was doing.
Smiling, I took another swig of beer and attempted the impossible.
“I’m handicapping; trying to pick the winner of a horse
race,” I said. “I love crunching the numbers: the trainer/jockey stats, speed
and pace figures — the whole nine yards. It’s a great thrill to select a horse
and then watch it win, especially at long odds. Yesterday, for example, I liked
the…”
I stopped. Clearly, the Wal-Mart security guard was not a
racing fan; nor, I gathered, were the majority of passing shoppers, who looked
at me like they’d never seen a guy in a bathrobe handicapping races in the
furniture department before.
Needless to say, I haven’t been within 100-150 yards of
that Wal-Mart since — I can’t remember precisely what the court order mandates
— but I still like to relax when I handicap. And, with Orb’s quest for the
Triple Crown beginning in earnest next Saturday, now seems like a good time to
share my bathrobe betting approach to the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
PREAKNESS STAKES
Where: Pimlico Racecourse (Baltimore, Maryland).
Race Distance: 1-3/16 miles (9-1/2 furlongs).
The Preakness Stakes is run just two weeks after the
Kentucky Derby and often features a large contingent of Derby runners. Not surprisingly,
these horses tend to do very well in Maryland, making the Preakness the most
formful of the Triple Crown events. The numbers:
* Since 1932 (when the order of
the Triple Crown series was at last set), 30 of 72 Preakness winners (41.7
percent) had previously annexed the Kentucky Derby, good for an 10.76 percent return
on investment (ROI).
* In the history of the
Preakness Stakes (dating back to 1873), favorites have won 69 times (51 percent)
and returned approximately $2.32 for every $2 wagered, a 16 percent ROI.
* Over the last 17 years, eight
horses improved their latest Beyer figure by five points or more while winning
the Run for the Roses. Of those, only one — Silver Charm in 1997 — went on to
capture the Preakness.
* 10 of last 12 Preakness
winners paid less than $9 to win.
Bottom Betting Line: In direct contrast to the Kentucky
Derby, the Preakness is all about established form. Sure, improving horses can
win — witness Bernardini in 2006 — but, for the most part, Preakness victors
are horses that have already proven their quality. Thus, it is wise to start
one’s Preakness handicapping by examining the Derby starters in the field.
Try to determine which of them were helped or hindered by
the way the race was run in Louisville, as Preakness history is replete with
form reversals — both positive and negative — resulting from a change of
tactics from one Triple Crown race to the next. For instance, after many
criticized Gary Stevens for moving too soon into hot fractions in the 2001
Kentucky Derby captured by Monarchos, the veteran jockey kept Point Given well
off a much slower pace two weeks later and won for fun in Baltimore.
BELMONT STAKES
Where: Belmont Park (Elmont, New York).
Race Distance: 1-1/2 miles (12 furlongs).
The oldest (it’s been run since 1867) and longest (1-1/2
miles) of the Triple Crown contests, the Belmont Stakes takes place three weeks
after the Preakness. In 1973, it provided the backdrop for what was arguably
the greatest performance in Thoroughbred racing history, when Secretariat won
by 31 lengths in two minutes and 24 seconds — a time that has never been
equaled.
Some interesting facts about the Belmont:
* Although it’s been called
“The Test of Champions,” recent winners of the Belmont Stakes haven’t exactly
reminded racing fans of Citation or Seattle Slew.
* A few recent bombs notwithstanding,
the Belmont Stakes has actually been relatively formful, as the post time
favorite has won 55 of 130 runnings of the race (42.3 percent).
* Only three of the past 14
Preakness winners who competed in the Belmont posed for pictures again in NY (Tabasco
Cat in 1994, Point Given in 2001 and Afleet Alex in 2005).
Bottom Betting Line: Value is the name of the wagering
game in the Belmont. Though favorites have performed well in the final leg of
the Triple Crown, they have, as a rule, been horribly overbet, leading to a
loss of about 22 cents on the dollar. Worse yet, odds-on choices are just 12 of
31 overall and 0 for 7 since 1979. Hence, it is imperative to look for horses
that appear better than their quoted odds, i.e. overlays.
Also, be sure to watch all the contenders’ races leading
up to the Belmont and eliminate runners that seem unable to relax or those that
are excessively fractious at the gate. Several high-profile Belmont busts, like
War Emblem and Smarty Jones, exhibited these toxic traits before attempting to
take a bite out of the Big Apple — and all proved rotten to the core.
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