When it comes to pedigree handicapping, I'm not a big fan of saying a certain aspect of a horse's lineage means s/he can't do something on the track. Rather, pedigree helps gives clues as to what a horse might most like to do: run short, long, or somewhere in between and on which surface.
A horse who figures best going long on the turf can still win sprinting on the dirt under certain circumstances, and vice versa and any other combination you can think of.
That's not to say pedigree handicapping isn't important, because it absolutely is, not only as an indicator of potential talent but also as one of the few areas that not all handicappers utilize, which leads to better prices.
Pedigree is most used in maiden and turf races, and for horses stretching out. The one thing those three categories have in common is that they involve horses doing things they've never done before. That's why pedigree handicapping is such a big part of handicapping races like the Kentucky and Epsom Derbys--no horse in those races has typically raced at 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 miles, respectively.
The Belmont Stakes is similar with its 1 1/2-mile distance, but for whatever reason doesn't get quite the same attention as the Derby from a pedigree perspective, and that's a shame because some trends have clearly developed over the past 22 years since Hansel, by Woodman out of a Dancing Count mare, won the 1991 Belmont Stakes.
That marked the first time a Mr. Prospector-line stallion out of a Northern Dancer-line mare would win the Test of the Champion but certainly not the last, as it has happened an astonishing seven times since with Mr. Prospector-line stallions accounting for another five wins on top of that and Northern Dancer-line broodmares another three wins. The reverse cross of a Northern Dancer-line sire over a Mr. Prospector-line mare accounted for last year's winner.
The following chart below shows the sire and broodmare sire lines of all Belmont Stakes winners going back to Summing in 1981. Mr. Prospector is present in 16 of the past 31 winners with 15 of those coming on the sire side. Northern Dancer is in 16 of the past 27 but more evenly distributed on top five times and with the dam 11 times.
So who has the magic combo in this year's group (Belmont 2013 tab)? Palace Malice and Will Take Charge are both by Mr. Prospector-line stallions out of Northern Dancer-line mares while Golden Soul and Midnight Taboo have the reverse of that cross that last year's winner Union Rags has. The only other Mr. Prospector-line stallion in the race is the filly Unlimited Budget, whose dam is from the In Reality line. That's the same cross 2000 winner Commendable had.
A.P. Indy is a popular sire line this year, but the only success he's had in the race since winning it in 1992 was with Rags To Riches in 2007. Still, all three of his representatives are out of either Northern Dancer- or Mr. Prospector-line mares.
Is all this to say that you need Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer influences to win the Belmont Stakes? Of course not. There are plenty of pedigrees we could look at with both those heavy hitters in the sire and dam lines and think this horse has no business on dirt and/or around two turns, but the great thing about the American classic races is that despite their distances they all require brilliance. Plodders and deep closers rarely do well in any of the three races. Classic breeding begets classic success.
Full disclosure: I happen to be director of marketing for Brisnet.com, which specializes in providing a lot of this info to handicappers. Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances include pedigree information not found in any other product, and tbe Brisnet.com American Produce Records (APR Online) allows users to search by entry and is great for handicapping maidens, turf races, and stretch outs.
If Mr. Prospector appears in a pedigree that means his two Belmont (and Preakness) winning grandsires Native Dance and Nashua are there. If he appears twice as in Orb, - double your pleasure.
ReplyDeleteOrb has 5 Belmont winners - A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Native Dancer and Nashua - in the 1st 5 generations of the top of his pedigree. In addition he has more Mr. Prospector in the bottom of his pedigree, so he is bred to go a long way.
Thanks for sharing.I found a lot of interesting information here. A really very thankful and hopeful that you will write many more posts like this one. global B2B importers directory
ReplyDeleteYour blog gave us significant data to work with. Each and each tip of your post are wonderful. You're the best Cheerios Varsity Jacket for sharing. Continue publishing content to a blog.
ReplyDeleteBEST POST
ReplyDeleteCheerleading Glee Cheerios Varsity Jacket
After a while, I started looking for the best information site. The author amazes me with his skill, art, and experience. Moreover, he prefer me to use research paper writing service for my help. I want to thank the writer who explained everything in detail.
ReplyDeleteHi! Thanks for the great information you havr provided! You have touched on crucuial points!
ReplyDeleteFlooring Installation Catonsville MD
You provided an exceptional experience to everyone, and I am grateful for that
ReplyDeleteYou can read articles and blogs on this website.
Mens jacket Sale
Thank you for any other excellent post. Where else may just anyone get that type of info in such an ideal method of writing? I’ve a presentation subsequent week, and I am on the look for such information.Leather Vest
ReplyDeleteVery interesting blog. A lot of blogs I see these days don't really provide anything that I'm interested in, but I'm most definitely interested in this one. fur aviator jacket
ReplyDeleteI found this blog. Much appreciation to you for offering to us, I, everything considered, find some new data from your post. to a cerebrum boggling degree satisfying and I to an amazing degree like your article a commitment of Thankfulness is everything
ReplyDeleteleather jacket for man
your article is worth reading keep it up bestvetcare promo codes
ReplyDeleteIt's encouraging to see that some individuals are still making an effort to manage their websites. I'll make sure to check back in shortly
ReplyDeleteCobra Kai Jacket
Goodness! Much obliged to you! I constantly needed to compose on my site something to that effect. Would i be able to incorporate a part of your post to my site? Puffer jacket
ReplyDeleteYour post was amazing. I love it recommending Leather Store to the users. Where they can crawl Exciting Products Super Star Jackets Platform is providing 100% Geniune Leather Products All products are available in Feasible Prices The best seller Leather Jackets Direct is offering amazing Leather Jackets to its customers. You can Click Here to get exciting Leather Products OffersLeather Jacket
ReplyDeleteVery useful post. This is my first time i visit here. I found so many interesting stuff in your blog especially its discussion. Really its great article. Keep it up where else may just anyone get that type of info in such an ideal method of writing? I’ve a presentation subsequent week, and I am on the look for such information.
ReplyDeleteHome Appliances Price in Pakistan
Hi, I do believe this is a great site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I will revisit
ReplyDeleteyet again since I book-marked it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may
you be rich and continue to help others. lakers jackets
The best way to find out about famous people's net worth is searching for their name on celeb networth then click.
ReplyDeleteThank you for providing this information. This website has a lot of useful information. I am quite grateful and glad that you will continue to create pieces like this one.Real Leather Jackets
ReplyDeleteI found your blog on net and can bookmark it currently. carry on the nice work. As we all know that computer is used all over the world. In the starting, it was just a calculating machine but with the time technology made it quicker and better than men. Sometimes you get chance to write computer assignment or essay but after finishing it you find the essay not up to the mark.
ReplyDeleteElegoo Mars 2 Pro
Thank you for providing this information. This website has a lot of useful information. I am quite grateful and glad that you will continue to create pieces like this one.r jackets
ReplyDeleteHello! Appreciate you very much for the important knowledge you've shared! You've brought up some important issues.Leather Jacket
ReplyDeleteIt's encouraging to see that some people are still trying to keep their websites up to date. I'll make a point of returning in the near future. Adam Project Jacket
ReplyDeleteFreelancers have a variety of reasons for freelancing, the perceived benefits differ by gender, industry, and lifestyle. For instance, the 2012 Freelance Industry Report reported that men and women freelance for different reasons.
ReplyDeleteIsha hasan blogs
There are many breeds of horses in the world, but the most beautiful and attractive horses are the breed called 'Akhal Take', which is found in a few countries of the world. Is there a breed of horse that is both beautiful and good at running on the track? Dissertation Proposal Help
ReplyDeleteAn essay is, generally, a piece of writing that gives the author's own argument, but the definition is vague, overlapping with those of a letter, a paper, an article, a pamphlet, and a short story.
ReplyDeleteQuick essay Online
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIts quite helpful blog. thanks for sharing with us. Can visit Custom Coins
ReplyDeleteHi there! Appreciate you very much for the important knowledge you've shared! You've raised a few significant points.
ReplyDeleteGreetings! I sincerely appreciate you sharing this valuable knowledge! Some significant points have been raised by you.
ReplyDeleteGreat article! The insights into Belmont Stakes pedigrees and the search for the magic cross were enlightening. It's fascinating to see how breeding plays a crucial role in horse racing success. The article provided valuable information on the intricacies of pedigree analysis, enhancing my understanding of the racing world.
ReplyDeleteGoogle rate cards in Dubai
Thankyou for this
ReplyDeleteThankx
ReplyDeleteThankx for it
ReplyDeleteThere’s something undeniably powerful about slipping into a Stranger Things Puffer Jacket—it instantly elevates your style and your confidence.
ReplyDelete