If you’re
like me, handicapping the Breeders’ Cup races is like judging the Miss
Universe Pageant.
Ultimately, all the contestants are above average in the looks department, they
all want world peace and they all seem incredibly happy.
In other
words, as is the case with the Breeders' Cup events, there are few, if any, glaring toss-outs.
Yet,
unless one’s betting strategy entails wagering on every horse in every
Breeders’ Cup race — which has produced a surprisingly decent -5.2 percent ROI
since 1997, by the way — one must find a way to eliminate certain entrants... without
any weeping and/or gnashing of teeth.
Well, like
Billy Swan, I can help.
Using my
database of BC results from 1997 to 2012, I found some angles that one can use
to instantly eliminate horses from further consideration, thereby saving time and aspirin:
1. Discard any horse that last raced on a dirt or
all-weather surface if today’s race is on turf or that last raced over the lawn if today’s race is on the dirt.
The Stats (since 1997): Six
winners in 161 attempts, with a 0.44 impact value (IV) and a 0.56 odds-based
impact value (OBIV).
2. In routes (races of one mile or greater), toss any horse
that last competed at six furlongs or less.
The Stats: Two winners in 33
attempts (including Beholder last year), with a 0.68 IV and a 0.64 OBIV.
3. Eliminate any horse with a median late speed ration
(LSR) of -20 or less*.
The Stats: Zero winners in 34 attempts.
The Stats: Zero winners in 34 attempts.
4. Reject any horse whose last-race form rating was less
than 20 percent*.
The Stats: Four winners in 119 attempts, 0.39 IV and a 0.59 OBIV.
5. Toss any horse trained by Aidan O’Brien that is running
on dirt.
The Stats: This is no knock
on O’Brien, whose overall BC record is impeccable (seven winners in 81 tries
with a 1.01 IV). However, there is a clear distinction between the veteran
conditioner’s starters on dirt (0.41 IV, 0.39 OBIV) and his starters on
all-weather or turf (1.34 IV, 0.75 OBIV).
6. In the juvenile turf events, don’t consider any horse
with a Brisnet Turf Pedigree rating** of less than 110.
The Stats: One winner
(Maram, 2008 Juvenile Fillies Turf) in 59 tries, with a 0.22 IV and a 0.24
OBIV.
7. In dirt races, avoid win bets on horses with an “S”
style rating** (these types do finish in the money a fair amount of the time).
The Stats: Seven winners in
138 attempts, 0.59 IV, 0.57 OBIV.
Hopefully this will help you avoid a few losers and reduce your handicapping time on Breeders’ Cup Day.
For more
great stats like the ones above, be sure to check out my 2013 Breeders’ Cup
Betting Guide available at Brisnet.com/bc and my 2013 Breeders’ Cup Trainers
Guide available at SimonSpeedRations.com/products.
* This number can be found in my Pace Profile Report available prior to the Breeders’ Cup via Brisnet.com or SimonSpeedRations.com.
** This rating can be found in the Brisnet past
performances available at Brisnet.com.
Auto buy, credit installments and back charges: And at that point, we can get to the real cost of the auto itself! Conceded one can purchase an old clunker out of the paper for $1,500.00, yet in the event that you are taking a gander at the cost of another auto at that point in view of 2006 costs, the normal import sticker price was $36,627 while the local new auto sticker price drifted in at $22,855. Normal out the two, we have a premise of $29.741 to hop our numbers off of. auto title loans chicago
ReplyDeleteSinging in the shower is one of the best remedies from stress, I do it every evening and it helps me a lot.
ReplyDeleteIt was wondering if I could use this write-up on my other website, I will link it back to your website though.Great Thanks.
ReplyDeleteDoor Installation College Park GA
By definition, the Breeders’ Cup is a championship event, with the best horses in each division running against one another. I need thesis defense presentation on time now.Therefore, I’m going to focus on the best horses in each race and eliminate the “non-contenders” before making a selection.
ReplyDeleteI don't know much about the Breeders' Cup championship event. But after reading this post, I learned that in the world of horse racing, the Breeders' Cup is the year-end international championship of the sport. I never attended this event. The reason is that I am a final year student and need to submit lots of assignments and written work. These days, I am working on my final year thesis with the help of the best dissertation writing service
ReplyDeleteMadhya Pradesh Textbook Corporation (MPTBC) Every Year published and Distribution in MP Board 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th Textbook 2023, MP Board 7th Class Books MP board Every Year Start High School Academic Year in Month of jun, Every Year 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th More Then 50 Laks of Students Studying in Madhya Pradesh State. Our Portal MP Board 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th Textbook 2023 are Provided here. Students You will get the Latest Edition which is published by the Madhya Pradesh Textbook Corporation.
ReplyDeleteI was wondering to know about this Breeders championship event but now help of this article little bit learned about this horse racing event & never attend this event because of study and lots of assisgment But few days ago i'm using Wondershare Free For Students software for completing my assignment. This software is very convinent to use.
ReplyDeleteNestled amidst the verdant hills of Andhra Pradesh, the Talupulamma Lova Temple is a beacon of spirituality and devotion. This sacred site, dedicated to the goddess Talupulamma, attracts thousands of devotees who come seeking blessings, solace, and a deeper connection with the divine. The temple’s serene environment, combined with its rich historical and cultural significance, makes it a must-visit destination for spiritual seekers and tourists alike.
ReplyDelete