Pay Heed to Speed

Earlier this week, my colleague Ed DeRosa, noted that, like the death of Samuel L. Clemens, the demise of speed figures as a meaningful handicapping factor has been “greatly exaggerated.”

Ed pointed out that, during the Keeneland meet in 2013, six of 11 non-maiden main-track sprints were captured by horses that had the highest last-out Brisnet speed figure by at least seven points.

“Yes, that's a small sample, but opening it up to my whole database shows 228 main track (dirt or synthetic) non-maiden sprints in which there was at least a 7-point … advantage with 40 percent winners and a +2 percent ROI,” DeRosa wrote.

Of course, anytime I see the words “stats” and “database” my reaction is akin to one of Pavlov’s dogs — I’m so anxious to do my own testing, I practically salivate at the thought of it.

So, with drool dripping from my chin (isn’t that a nice image?), I delved into my database of more than 12,000 races to see what other interesting facts I could dig up on Brisnet speed figures. Of course, before I did that, I first checked to see if Ed’s findings held up on a bigger sample.

Sadly, they did not.

* Non-maiden races on a dirt or synthetic surface.

* Top last-race Brisnet speed figure by seven points or more.

* Sprints (races less than a mile) only.

Number: 920

Winners (rate): 355 (38.6%)

Return: $1,652.50

ROI: -10.19%

But hang not your head Tom Dooley, all is not lost. If we insist that the horse finished in the money (third or better) last time, the picture improves dramatically:

Number: 720

Winners (rate): 295 (41.0%)

Return: $1,365.90

ROI: -5.15%

I know, I know — better, yes, but still not profitable. Well, check out the results when we heed the advice of the “bounce” advocates and require that the horse’s most recent speed figure not represent a recent top. Horses that met all the criteria above and recorded a higher Brisnet speed rating in at least one of their previous nine outings produced the following numbers:

Number: 195

Winners (rate): 91 (46.7%)

Return: $411.60

ROI: +5.54%

Now, I know from painful experience that back-testing like this can lead to misleading results and I’ll be the first to admit that I have little confidence that the positive ROI obtained above will hold.

But that’s not really the point.

The point is that speed is still a potent handicapping factor when viewed in the proper light. No, it is not the be-all and end-all that many believed it to be after reading about Andy Beyer’s exploits 30 years ago, but it’s not totally worthless — as some believe — either.

By the way, I looked for qualifying plays (above) on Saturday, Nov. 16, and found one:

TUP5: 7-Mon Couer (7/5 morning line odds).

FREE Spot Plays

A couple of months ago, on my Web site SimonSpeedRations.com, I offered my personal spot plays to those who purchased a one-month Win Factor Report or Pace Profile Report subscription.

From Sept. 16-30, there were 56 qualifying plays — an average of four per day — and they produced 23 winners (41.1 percent) and a positive net return of $2.44, or 21.96 percent, per $2 bet. (Click HERE to see a summary of all the September selections.)

Well, I've decided to do it again — and this time it's even better.

Starting today (Saturday, Nov. 16), I will be offering my spot plays to ANYONE who buys one or more of my report packages. This includes both the daily packages.

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