The Bias That Wasn’t
Following a weekend showcasing some of the best
thoroughbred talent on the planet, all the talk should have been about the
horses, right?
Wrong.
Wrong.
Even before the Mucho Macho Man nosed out Will Take
Charge in a thrilling renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Classic to end two days of
equine excitement on Saturday, Nov. 2, a word I’ve grown to detest was being
bandied about like medicinal herbs at a reggae concert...
Bias.
Bias.
Jay Privman of the Daily
Racing Form used the four-letter abomination when discussing Beholder’s
scintillating win in the Distaff.
“It would be a shame if the day’s speed bias detracts
from the quality of Beholder’s win, because, in fact, she did not directly
benefit from it. There is no doubt the bias was a major factor in earlier
races, particularly the Dirt Mile, but it seemed less so in the Distaff, where
horses actually came from off the pace to do well.”
According to Privman (and I suspect many racing fans too),
the fact that “improbable longshots” like Heir Storm, who went wire-to-wire at
37-1 in the second race on Friday, triumphed at Santa Anita over the weekend, the existence
of a main-track early speed bias was irrefutable.
Heck, I’ll admit it, I got sucked in myself. After SA’s
third race on Friday was also won by a massive longshot that dueled for the
lead throughout, I tweeted this:
 |
|
(Click on image to enlarge)
|
There was a problem with my angry missive, though. The
truth is I hadn’t actually looked at
any of the non-Breeders’ Cup events — nor had I computed my pace figures — at the
time I sent out my tweet. When I finally did
get a chance to analyze those races, it was I — not the Santa Anita maintenance
crew — that had reason to be ashamed.
Despite what you may have heard from trainers and jockeys
(and I’ve heard a lot), there is about as much statistical evidence to suggest that
there was a Breeders’ Cup speed bias last weekend as there is to suggest that a
“cuppy” track has led to the downfall of countless Kentucky Derby favorites
over the years.
Dr. Steven Roman, creator of the Dosage Index, put it best.
“Basically, the argument for a speed bias rests on three
of Friday's races, each of which was won by the horse in front at the first
call,” Dr. Roman told me. “However, that argument ignores the fact that every
challenger to the winner that was very close at the first call (and beyond)
finished up the track.
“I have no idea why a speed bias would help the horse in
front but not the one right on his heels early,” Roman said.
It is Dr. Roman’s contention — and I agree with him — that
what folks actually saw last weekend
was what one sees most weekends at the Great Race Place — a main track that is very
kind to early speed.
“I think it's fair to say that the Santa Anita main track
favors speed, as do many North American racing surfaces,” Roman said. “Accordingly,
there is a valid reason for believing early speed is the universal bias.”
However, this “universal bias,” a term coined by William Quirin
in “Winning at the Races” to describe the advantage that early runners have in
general (“Winning at the Races” was published prior to the advent of
all-weather tracks), is not what Privman and others were squawking about.
Writing for the Los Angeles Daily News, Kevin Modesti summarized the feelings many had after Day 1 of the Breeders’ Cup Championships.
Writing for the Los Angeles Daily News, Kevin Modesti summarized the feelings many had after Day 1 of the Breeders’ Cup Championships.
“Recent results had made it appear climate and the way
the main oval was prepared had left the soil harder than normal and thus less
tiring for front-running horses,” Modesti wrote. “In the previous two racing
days, and in the non-Breeders’ Cup races that led off Friday’s card, nine of
the 13 main-track races were won by horses who led or were up in second early.
Horseplayers cried ‘speed bias’ and noted Santa Anita had been this way for
last year’s Breeders’ Cup too; on Twitter, a prominent East Coast racing
analyst called such development on such an important day ‘an embarrassment of
epic proportions.’
“When Goldencents and rider Rafael Bejarano set a fast
pace and kept going to win the Dirt Mile, the impression seemed to be
confirmed,” Modesti concluded.
Yet, Roman saw the Dirt Mile a bit differently and, in
fact, held it up as a great example as to why a speed bias did not exist on Friday.
“Goldencents was spectacular early through blistering fractions up to six furlongs, after which he tired dramatically in the stretch but had built up enough of a lead to hold on easily. There are two things to consider here,” Roman said.
“First, a speed-biased track should have mitigated his fatigue, yet he finished in :26.2. Compare that with Secretariat's 12-furlong Belmont Stakes run on a truly speed-biased surface where he was able to finish up in :25.0 after a 1:09.4 six furlongs. I'm not comparing Goldencents to Secretariat, only the effects of a truly speed-biased surface.
“Goldencents was spectacular early through blistering fractions up to six furlongs, after which he tired dramatically in the stretch but had built up enough of a lead to hold on easily. There are two things to consider here,” Roman said.
“First, a speed-biased track should have mitigated his fatigue, yet he finished in :26.2. Compare that with Secretariat's 12-furlong Belmont Stakes run on a truly speed-biased surface where he was able to finish up in :25.0 after a 1:09.4 six furlongs. I'm not comparing Goldencents to Secretariat, only the effects of a truly speed-biased surface.
“Second, going into the Dirt Mile, Goldencents had the
consistently fastest early speed profile of any starter. One that had shown
flashes of that early speed earlier in the year, Broadway Empire, was within a
half-length of Goldencents through four furlongs in :44.3 but folded and ran
ninth of 11 beaten over 14 lengths.”
A look at Friday’s figures confirms Roman’s thesis:
Averages for winners on the main track at Santa Anita
on Friday, Nov. 1, 2013
Position at the first call: 4.1
Lengths trailing (leading margins were counted as zero)
at the first call: 4.4
*ESR: -8.1
*LSR: -10.7
Field Size: 9.7
Adjusted position at the first call (assuming a 10-horse
field): 4.3
Now, compare these digits to the stats for Santa Anita
during the entire month of October:
Averages for winners on the main track at Santa Anita during
the month of October 2013
Position at the first call: 3.5
Lengths trailing (leading margins were counted as zero)
at the first call: 2.1
*ESR: -7.4
*LSR: -11.2
Field Size: 8.2
Adjusted position at the first call (assuming a 10-horse
field): 4.3
Honestly, I don’t think even Justin Timberlake would
have expected the data from the first day of the Breeders’ Cup to so closely
mirror the data from October.
Let’s take a look at Saturday’s stats:
Averages for winners on the main track at Santa Anita
on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2013
Position at the first call: 6.2
Lengths trailing (leading margins were counted as zero)
at the first call: 3.6
*ESR: -6.3
*LSR: -12.7
Field Size: 10.5
Adjusted position at the first call (assuming a 10-horse
field): 5.9
Wow. Not only was there no discernible speed bias on Saturday, the
numbers imply just the opposite. Most interesting to me is the average ESR,
which fell by almost two lengths, despite the fact that the BC Sprint and both
juvenile events were run on the second day — and those races typically produce lower
(faster) ESRs.
In fact, the figures strongly suggest that, perhaps, the
Santa Anita maintenance crew listened to the knuckleheads like me bellyaching about
the bias and made some changes to the main track.
Again, Dr. Roman hit the nail on the head: “As noted in
your recent podcast, many people are quick to pull the ‘bias’ trigger on scant
evidence. Why didn't they complain about an ‘anti-speed bias’ on Saturday when
not one winner on the dirt was in front at the first call?”
Good question. And to add my own nail to what I hope is
the coffin for all this bias bluster, I present the October statistics from
Belmont Park, a track that many have proposed as a “fair” alternative to Santa
Anita as host of the Breeders’ Cup events:
Averages for winners on the main track at Belmont Park
during the month of October 2013
Position at the first call: 3.3
Lengths trailing (leading margins were counted as zero)
at the first call: 2.5
*ESR: -4.0
*LSR: -8.4
Field Size: 7.5
Adjusted position at the first call (assuming a 10-horse
field): 4.4
*See key below.
What we see is what most racing fans already knew:
Belmont Park is slower than Santa
Anita, but the universal bias is still, well, universal.
Can we please talk about the horses now?
Can we please talk about the horses now?
5 comments:
How would you renegotiate car credit bundles at any rate? Renegotiating a car advance involves rebuilding the obligation commitment under various terms, terms wherein a purchaser will have a less demanding time paying the obligation off. For example, the new advance bundle can have bring down regularly scheduled installments or can be all the more here and now, contingent upon the purchaser. Cash Advance Chicago
Nostalgia hit me like a boulder when I read this blog. I remember this event being played in my dad's car while we were on our way to Dallas. My dad was hyped as a student when they get their essay from the
best assignment help service they availed. Thank you for reminding me of these precious memories.
On the board's official website, the Jammu and Kashmir State Board of School Education will shortly release the Jammu and Kashmir 9th Blueprint 2023. All students are seeking for the Jammu and Kashmir 9th Blueprint 2023 after the test. Blueprint for JKBOSE Class 9th in 2023 The Jammu and Kashmir State Board's 9th grade blueprint for 2023 will be released in the third week of May. JK 9th Weightage 2023 A significant number of participants took part in the exam. We/students will be hoping to do well in the exam. It will be announced on the board's official website as J&K 9th Blueprint 2023. On the board's official website, the Jammu and Kashmir 9th class Blueprint 2023 will be announced.
The Bias That Wasn’t is a thought-provoking read that challenges our perceptions and reminds us of the importance of objective analysis. It's intriguing how preconceived notions can influence our understanding. Now, I'm wondering if there's a reputable source that can do my assignment for me UK, ensuring unbiased research and high-quality work.
ترجمة عربية معتمدة خدمات الترجمة إلى العربية تلعب دوراً حيوياً في تسهيل التواصل بين الثقافات واللغات المختلفة. تساعد هذه الخدمات في نقل الأفكار والمعلومات بدقة ووضوح، مما يعزز التفاهم الدولي ويسهم في نجاح العلاقات الشخصية والمهنية على حد سواء.
Post a Comment