The Future Is Now
Every year, I look forward to the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager and, this year, the fun started earlier than ever — on Wednesday, Nov. 27.
That’s before
the ball drop in New York,
before Santa’s annual sleigh ride… heck, my Thanksgiving turkey hadn’t even
been put in the oven, much less thawed, before I was breaking open the past
performances in search of the next
great sire.
In fact, this
is the first time in history that a (pari-mutuel) Kentucky Derby futures pool
has been offered prior to February and it is open until post time of today’s
Remsen or Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, whichever comes first.
According to Darren
Rogers, senior director of communications and media services for Churchill
Downs, Inc., pool closures coinciding with the post time of an important prep race
will be the new standard this year (in years past, the future pools closed on
Sunday evenings).
Before we take a closer look at the 2013 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1, here is a list of all the pools, including when they open and when they close:
Before we take a closer look at the 2013 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1, here is a list of all the pools, including when they open and when they close:
Pool 1: Wednesday, Nov. 27-Saturday, Nov. 30
Pool 2: Thursday, Feb. 6-Saturday, Feb. 8
Pool 3: Thursday, Feb. 27-Saturday, March 1
Pool 4: Thursday, March 27-Saturday, March 29
Now, on to
the fun stuff! First let’s take a look at the history of Pool #1 wagering.
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image to enlarge)
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As you can
see, “All Others,” or the field, is a great betting option in the first futures
pool. Although the $10.20 payoff resulting from Charismatic’s win in the
initial pool back in 1999 probably won’t ever be seen again, the lower prices
these days are more than offset by the higher winning percentage of non-listed
horses since 2008.
Betting “All Others”
1999-2007
1999-2007
Number: 9
Wins: 3
Wins: 3
Rate: 33.3%
Return: $23.40
ROI: +30.00%
Return: $23.40
ROI: +30.00%
2008-2013
Number: 6
Wins: 4
Wins: 4
Rate: 66.7%
Return: $25.00
ROI: +108.33%
Return: $25.00
ROI: +108.33%
Overall
(1999-2013)
Number: 15
Wins: 7
Wins: 7
Rate: 46.7%
Return: $48.40
ROI: +61.33%
Return: $48.40
ROI: +61.33%
Beyond playing
the mutual field, however, there are three things that I think bettors need to
consider before making a future wager on the Kentucky Derby:
1) Is the
horse one favors even likely to start in the Kentucky Derby? In the past two
years, 22 of the 46 listed horses (47 percent) in Pool 1 have not made it to the starting gate on the
first Saturday in May (at least at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby).
2) Is the
horse one prefers likely to go to post at odds significantly greater than its
Future Pool odds? Given that half the horses won’t even make the trip to
Louisville, I think asking for a 50-100 percent premium is not unreasonable.
3) Will one’s
future bet allow one to hedge down the road. To me, this is the most important consideration. The
idea is to get as many of your future bets into the gate — at premium odds — as
possible… and, then, don’t bet them all on
Derby Day. Instead, use the future wagers as “savers” or as a means of
consolidating your event-day tickets.
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image to enlarge)
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