A Bright Future
Ask a veteran race goer what he thinks of Kentucky Derby future
pool wagering and I suspect the response will be decidedly negative — like his response
to losing a close photo finish… or to a “newbie” hemming and hawing at the
betting window… or to a person wishing him a cheery “good morning.” (A lot of veteran
race goers are kind of grumpy.)
They are also wrong in regard to the pari-mutuel Derby future bets offered by Churchill Downs through
various wagering hubs, including TwinSpires.
The reason most players view future wagering in the same
way they would regard a flaming bag on their porch is because of the
uncertainty that such wagers inherently carry with them. After all, one is not
only betting that a horse will be pointed for — and draw into — a particular
race (in this case, the Kentucky Derby), one is also throwing down cash on the
horse to win said race. And if Robert
Burns was correct about the best-laid plans of mice and men often going astray,
imagine the pandemonium resulting from the best-laid plans of men and
racehorses.
Still, that is no reason to snub the Kentucky
Future Wager (Pool 2), which opened on Thursday and closes Saturday
evening.
Simply put, there is value to be had in these pools. Case
in point: Since the inception of the pari-mutuel future wager in 1999, betting
the “field” in each pool has produced a cumulative net return of $5.08 per $2
wagered — that’s a return on investment of 154 percent. And, in fact, Pool 2
has offered the greatest ROI (in excess of 200 percent) on field horses (those
not listed individually).
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So with that in mind, let’s take a look at a few of this
year’s top contenders and possible sleepers:
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COMMENTS: This
colt has shown a lot of talent… on turf. But will that translate to dirt? I’m a
little cynical. Plus, I fear that the price will be on the short side, thanks
to the big reputation Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s homebred has.
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COMMENTS: Distance
may be a factor, but the son of Pioneerof The Nile (second in the 2009 Kentucky
Derby) has made all the right moves so far.
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COMMENTS: I
like this guy — a lot. Not only has he shown vast improvement from his debut on
Aug. 17, but I love the fact that he
makes his move on the turn. That is a potent Kentucky Derby angle (witness
Animal Kingdom).
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COMMENTS: This
dude shows a ton of early foot — maybe too much early foot — but I do like the
attempt to rate in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
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COMMENTS: Right
now, his reputation exceeds his ability.
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COMMENTS: I
suspect this horse might need some of Floyd
Landis’ beer to get a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May.
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COMMENTS: Son
of Distorted Humor is going to have to show that he can come off the pace and
win, but nothing — at least at this point — indicates that he can’t.
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COMMENTS: I
have a ton of confidence in Bob Baffert when it comes to developing Derby
stock, but Midnight Hawk looks like an underlay in this pool.
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COMMENTS: The
missed training has me very concerned, especially since the explanation for it
has been, to quote the old beer commercial, “less filling.”
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COMMENTS: Given
the fast pace, the colt’s performance in the BC Juvenile can be excused, but
nothing else grabs me by the throat at this point. He looks like a Pool 2
underlay to me.
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COMMENTS: Another
one that needs to learn how to rate, but if he does…
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The author suggests that when you suika game ask a veteran racegoer about Kentucky Derby future pool wagering, their response would likely be negative.
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