I have
often discussed how important it is that a horse show the ability to gain
ground on the turn in Kentucky Derby preps, à la Animal Kingdom in the 2011 Spiral.
(Click on image to enlarge) |
In that
Grade III event, the son of Leroidesanimaux passed three horses and gained two
lengths en route to a 2 ¾-length score.
Six weeks
later, he was having his picture taken in the Churchill Downs’ winner’s circle.
Just as
important as positive moves, however, are negative ones.
What’s the
difference, you ask? Well, a positive move is any gain of running position and lengths (the latter stipulation helps
to ensure that the move was due to the horse accelerating rather than just
picking up stragglers) on the far turn, while a negative move is just the
opposite — a loss of both position and lengths on the far turn.
For the
sake of simplicity, I consider the far turn to be the span between the first
and second call in routes and the span between the second call and the stretch
call in sprints. (Obviously, prepping for the Kentucky Derby in a sprint race
raises other issues… but it has
happened.)
Take a peek
at horses that showed a negative move on the turn in their last race prior to the Derby:
(Click on image to enlarge) |
Simply
put, these horses just don’t perform in Louisville. Not only are they 0-for-29
since 1992, only two — Menifee (in 1999) and Pioneerof the Nile (2009) — have so
much as hit the board.
So,
without further ado, here are the potential “turnoffs” in
Kentucky Derby 140:
Horses
that lost position and lengths from the first call to the second call in
their final prep
* Dance
with Fate
* Vinceremos
* Coastline
* In
Trouble
*
Casiguapo
Hi, thanks for posting this... Although I just read a contradicting article from Equibase about Dance with Fate that in the BlueGrass Dance with Fate was in front at the eight pole and held his own to the wire... I guess maybe he lost lengths... I'll have to watch the race. Here's a link to the article I'm referring to with quote:
ReplyDelete"One of the keys to choosing who may run well in the Derby is to try to determine who might peak on Derby Day, not in their next start or the one previous. Dance With Fate may be that type of horse. He started his 3 year old campaign in January winning a non-stakes race then led late and settled for second in the El Camino Real Derby in Northern California. Coming to Kentucky for the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes last month, Dance with Fate rallied from 10th of 14 in the early stages and was in front at the eight pole, holding his lead nicely to the wire, that move being significant to a potentially winning effort in the Derby as well"
http://www.equibase.com/analysis/050314preanalysis.cfm?SAP=ITP
Thanks!
Nathan
Had a law assessment which I started but couldn't just find the time to continue...fate brought me to Masterpapers service and the rest as they say is pleasant history. Well done with heart by an awesome writer, awesome responsive customer service and a well structured service structure in total. I highly recommend their services.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteRoom For Rent
The Makings Of Me Book
Melbourne Cabs
Great ideas, also check about Academic Writing Services i hope you will like it
ReplyDeleteNice to read your article! I am looking forward to sharing your adventures and experiences.
ReplyDeleteUK writing services
I was looking at some of your posts on this website and I conceive this web site is really instructive! Keep putting up..
ReplyDeleteResidential construction services in Middleton ID
Hello There. I found your blog using msn. This is an extremely well written article. I will be sure to bookmark it and return to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post. I’ll certainly comeback.
ReplyDeletePlain Vinyl Service Lawrenceville GA
Interesting post. I Have Been wondering about this issue, so thanks for posting. Pretty cool post.It 's really very nice and Useful post.Thanks
ReplyDeleteHVAC Installation Perk VA
An fascinating discussion is value comment. I think that it is best to write extra on this matter, it won’t be a taboo topic however generally people are not enough to talk on such topics. To the next. Cheers
ReplyDeleteKitchen Remodeling Baltimore County MD
Get Packers and Movers Bhubaneswar List of Top Reliable, 100% Affordable, Verified and Secured Service Provider. Get Free ###Packers and Movers Bhubaneswar Price Quotation instantly and Save Cost and Time. ✔✔✔Packers and Movers Bhubaneswar Reviews and Compare Charges for household Shifting, Home/Office Relocation, ***Car Transportation, Pet Relocation, Bike SHifting. @
ReplyDeletePackers And Movers Bhubaneswar
As a Kentucky Derby fan, knowing the turnoffs might mar the experience. Overcrowding, overpriced tickets, and traffic can ruin the event. These detours can be avoided with proper planning. Juno Temple Gold Puffer Jacket is a great choice for anyone who wants to look good and feel warm.
ReplyDeleteThe Kentucky Derby turnoffs, like overcrowded spaces and long waits, can dampen the excitement. However, the event's energy remains unbeatable. Similarly, CV writers in Dubai eliminate career hurdles by crafting standout, professional CVs.
ReplyDelete