Free Weekend Win Factor Report Plays
Aqueduct (02/04/11)Race 8 * 9.0 Furlongs * Dirt
6-Wishful Tomcat (2/5)
Fair Odds: 2-1
3-Raffinator (12/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
5-J L Bernstein (20/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
COMMENTS: Although 6-WISHFUL TOMCAT is the 2-5 morning line favorite, I think he’s vulnerable in this spot. Yes, I know the Richard Dutrow trainee has a huge class edge against these — but that is precisely why I think the six-year-old ridgling may not be at his best on Friday. To begin with, Wishful Tomcat is running for a tag for the first time in his career after failing (as the 3-5 favorite) against the likes of Ruffino ($401K in lifetime earnings) and Icabad Crane ($450K) in the Tinchen's Prince Stakes. What’s worse, he hasn’t raced in over two months and his work tab has been somewhat spotty as well. On the plus side, Dutrow is extremely proficient with class droppers.
Still, at 2-5, I need to see more and will try to beat the big favorite in the show pool, where I think Wishful Tomcat will be a massive underlay and, thanks to Net Pool Pricing, we may find some value.
BET(S): SHOW on 3 and SHOW on 5 if Wishful Tomcat controls 75% or more of the (show) pool.
Laurel Park (02/04/11)
Race 8 * 7.0 Furlongs * Dirt
7-Heritage Hall (5/2)
Fair Odds: 6-5
2-Eagle Strike (2/1)
Fair Odds: 4-1
5-R. Bee Ess (6/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
BET(S): WIN on 7 at odds of 6-5 or greater.
Delta Downs (02/05/11)
Race 10 * 8.5 Furlongs * Dirt
7-Star Guitar (1/2)
Fair Odds: 6-5
6-Snug (7/2)
Fair Odds: 7-2
4-My Star Runner (5/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
BET(S): SHOW on 6 and SHOW on 4 if Star Guitar controls 75% or more of the (show) pool.
For audio analysis of Saturday's Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Handicap and Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park, click HERE.
Derek Simon’s Free Horseracing Selection Statistics
Races (Selections): 10 (11)
Wins: 2
Rate: 20.0%
Return: $34.20
ROI: +55.45%
(This year's published selections through 02/03/11.)
Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager, with the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).
1 comment:
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