Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts

  • Let the ‘Real’ Derby Preps Begin

    POSTED Apr 5, 2014 By Derek Simon
    According to KentuckyDerby.com, there have been 20 “prep” races for the Kentucky Derby so far this year. That’s 29 events in which points have been awarded to Kentucky Derby hopefuls — points that will ultimately determine who’s in and who’s out of America’s greatest horse race.

    I say nay.

    I say that, in truth, there has been but one Kentucky Derby prep (last weekend’s Florida Derby) run this year — with four more remaining (Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and Arkansas Derby) including two this weekend (the SA Derby and Wood).

    No offense to the majestic thoroughbreds that competed in this year’s Sham, LeComte, Smarty Jones or El Camino Real Derby, but those races have produced exactly three Kentucky Derby champions since the death of Andrew Johnson (he was the 17th president, kids) — and not one of them actually won the “prep” in question:

    Giacomo (3rd in 2005 Sham)
    War Emblem (5th in 2002 LeComte)
    Charismatic (2nd in 1999 El Camino Real Derby)

    Meanwhile, Saturday’s Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby have produced a total of 36 Kentucky Derby winners. So let’s take a look at this weekend’s prestigious preps, starting with the Wood Memorial:

    WOOD MEMORIAL
    10th Aqueduct (4/5/14)
    1-1/8 miles (dirt)

    1-KID CRUZ
    Recent podcast guest Brian Zipse of Horse Racing Nation loves this horse and I can see why. The son of Lemon Drop Kid comes from the clouds and could get the perfect setup with the likes of Noble Moon, Kristo, Schivarelli, Uncle Sigh and Social Inclusion in this field. What’s more, his speed and pace figures are competitive. In his last start (the Private Terms at Laurel), in which he rallied from 18 lengths back at the first call, Kid Cruz earned a 98 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is a 104) and a -7 late speed ration (LSR).
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    2-WICKED STRONG
    His subpar speed rating in the Remsen can be excused due to the slug-slow pace in that affair, but there is absolutely no excuse for his subsequent impression of a tortoise in both the Holy Bull and an optional claiming event.
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    3-NOBLE MOON
    This guy appears to be moving in the right direction, but he needs a major performance boost to compete with the likes of these. The 91-day layoff doesn’t inspire confidence either… although the last two workouts — both at a mile — are very interesting indeed.
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    4-HARPOON
    I suspect this son of Tapit was entered solely because the connections expect — or are hoping for — a pace meltdown. Personally, I think Harpoon’s subpar LSRs — a -12 in the Gotham and -10 in the Sam F. Davis — make this hope a forlorn one.
    Fair Odds: 15-1

    5-LOS BORRACHOS
    His latest LSR (-2) was great… but it was earned in a race that featured an 84 Brisnet speed figure (BSF).
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    6-KRISTO
    After a decent try in the Grade III Sham, this colt proved unratable in the San Felipe and would up getting beat by 13 ½ lengths. The presence of Martin Garcia in the saddle today makes me think the game plan will be to stick much closer to the pace this time.
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    7-SCHIVARELLI
    Son of the speedy Montbrook (6.3 AWD of progeny) is bred to be a sprinter, but he’s very intriguing in this spot. Not only does he look like the quickest of the quick, but his last race (granted, it was a lowly optional claiming affair) wasn’t half-bad. Schivarelli earned a 98 BSF while recording a positive pace profile in a dominant win on Feb. 21. Even a repeat of that effort makes him interesting.
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    8-SAMRAAT
    Love the way this colt has progressed. His speed figures are solid, if not spectacular (he’s earned a 99 BSF in each of his last three races), and his overall LSRs are second only to Effinex (who is much slower). Forget the state-bred nonsense — those races were last year; this year, the son of Noble Causeway has been nothing but money.
    Fair Odds: 2-1

    9-EFFINEX
    To paraphrase those commercials, trainer David J. Smith doesn’t win often, but when he does… well, he makes ‘em count. I suspect Effinex is too slow to compete against the likes of these, but the colt did improve greatly in his first start under Smith.
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    10-UNCLE SIGH
    He’s game as they come, with solid overall speed and pace figures. Price is key.
    Fair Odds: 6-1

    11-SOCIAL INCLUSION
    So, here’s the deal: Yes, this colt is talented, but, as I’ve often said, finding a talented horse is not what betting the races is all about — or even partially about. If you’re seeking the most talented contender in a race, just check out the tote board.

    Social Inclusion is likely to be favored today; on that, most racing fans agree. And that favoritism will be based on one race — a wire-to-wire score in an allowance race featuring an absurdly slow pace (0 early speed ration) over a notoriously speed-favoring track (Gulfstream Park) on March 12.

    Oh, and did I forget? Social Inclusion broke from post 1 that day.

    Today, he starts from the 11-hole, faces several other prominent speedsters and meets Grade I competition for the first time in his career.

    Anybody taking 2-1 on his chances is either crazy or incredibly brave… I’ll make a case for straitjackets.
    Fair Odds: 9-2

    SANTA ANITA DERBY
    8th Santa Anita Park (4/5/14)
    1-1/8 miles (dirt)

    1-RPRETTYBOYFLOYD
    Son of Bluegrass Cat with the low-percentage connections is still a maiden, although his numbers are OK (not good, just OK).
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    2-FRIENDSWITH K MILL
    Do you want to know the story about how this colt got his name? Yeah, neither do I. I just know it’s awful. That said, this Doug O’Neil trainee put in a decent run last time while vastly improving his previous numbers on dirt.
    Fair Odds: 15-1

    3-HOPPERTUNITY
    Great last race (95 BSF, -5 LSR) and no knocks to speak of.
    Fair Odds: 5-2

    4-BIG TIRE          
    Just broke his maiden (in start number six) and will need to improve greatly to even get a sniff against this group.
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    5-CALIFORNIA CHROME
    His combination of overall speed and quickness looks formidable. Interestingly, although California Chrome’s sire (Lucky Pulpit) gets 80 percent of his wins in races under a mile, his progeny also show great improvement, from a speed figure standpoint, in routes. Art Sherman trainee is a legitimate favorite.
    Fair Odds: 7-5

    6-CANDY BOY
    Still like this guy as a Kentucky Derby candidate, but the reality is he will need to improve several lengths to visit the winner’s circle today. Can he do it? Of course. Will he do it? That’s what fair odds are for.
    Fair Odds: 3-1

    7-SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS
    Looked short in the San Felipe, but exactly how good is the son of Rock Hard Ten? I guess we’ll find out.
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    8-DUBLIN UP
    Another maiden trying winners, except this guy is from connections familiar to the Triple Crown trail — Donegal Racing. However, that doesn’t make the Peter Miller trainee any faster
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • The Greatest Kentucky Derby Champions

    POSTED Jan 31, 2014 By Derek Simon
    In my opinion, the most fascinating thing about sports has nothing to do with the competition or the venue. Sure, those who were in the stands when Babe Ruth allegedly “called his shot” witnessed a historic moment.


    The lucky fans that watched Wilt Chamberlain pour in 100 points in an NBA game against the New York Knicks (why am I not surprised the Knicks were involved?) on March 2, 1962, saw a basketball legend at his very best.


    But the thrill of sports — at least to me — is not watching a Hall-of-Famer go off on a guy with a career scoring average of 7.2 points per game (PPG), like Darrall Imhoff, who started at center for the Knicks that historic night. To me, the thrill of sports is debating the answer to a simple question: “what if?”

    Sid Luckman
    What if Chamberlain played a one-on-one game of hoops with Michael Jordan? What if Ruth was stared down by Clayton Kershaw with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning? What if Sid Luckman, the man who pioneered the position of quarterback, faced off with Peyton Manning, the guy who tied Luckman (and others) with seven touchdown passes in a single game? 

     NOTE: A Manning-Luckman showdown would have particular appeal to me because Luckman also played defensive back. (No word on whether he gave Sammy Baugh the choke sign or called  Charley Malone  a “mediocre receiver” after the Chicago Bears pounded the Washington Redskins 73-0 in the 1940 NFL title game).

     My point here is that the history of sports is what makes them so compelling. After all, without the context that history provides, there can be no greatness. Scoring 100 points in an NBA game is only noteworthy because no one — except Chamberlain — has ever done it.

    It was with this in mind that I decided to peruse my database of Kentucky Derby results and present what I believe are the top three greatest performances in Derby history.

    Now, anybody who has delved into the history of sports knows that it is not easy to determine greatness by statistics alone.

    Things change.

    For example, during the 1961-62 season, in which Chamberlain averaged 50.4 PPG, the typical NBA team took 107.7 shots per contest. By the time Jordan was leading the Chicago Bulls to their last title in 1998, teams were attempting just 79.7 shots per game.

    Likewise, the racing strip at Churchill Downs, the site of the Kentucky Derby, has changed over the years — making straight time comparisons fruitless. However, as many regular readers know, I have developed my own pace figures, which measure relative speed, so I will be relying heavily on them to make my assessments.

    Hence, a quick tutorial is in order:

    Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.

    -15= Demanding.
    -10= Brisk.
      -5= Moderate.
       0= Soft.

    Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event. Because late speed is calculated at a time when a horse is being asked for his/her maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well.

       0= Excellent.
      -5= Good.
    -10= Fair.
    -15= Poor.

    Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s LSR and the ESR of the race in which it was earned. Positive profiles are greatly desired.

    Note: ESRs and LSRs recorded on turf or all-weather surfaces tend to vary by 5-10 points from those garnered on dirt tracks.

    5. NORTHERN DANCER (1964)

    In addition to being one of the most influential sires in history, Northern Dancer was a heckuva racehorse. The zero late speed ration he earned in the 1964 Run for the Roses ranks eighth all time and his 2:00 clocking wasn’t surpassed until Secretariat in 1973.


    4. MAJESTIC PRINCE (1969)

    Although Majestic Prince’s +1 LSR was fourth-best in Derby history, he is probably best known for a race he didn’t win — the Belmont Stakes.

    Fearing that “Prince” was injured after he bore out in the stretch of the Preakness, the colt’s trainer Johnny Longden initially decided not to ship to New York. However, after much public pressure — some coming from the horse’s owner Frank McMahon — Longden relented and Majestic Prince finished a badly-beaten second to eventual three-year-old champ Arts and Letters.

    Majestic Prince never raced again.


    3. OLD ROSEBUD (1914)

    Old Rosebud’s zero LSR ranks as the fifth-highest in Kentucky Derby history and the best ever for a wire-to-wire winner of America’s most prestigious horse race. What’s more his final time of 2:03 2/5 set a Derby record that would stand for 16 years.


    2. WHIRLAWAY (1941)

    Whirlaway had great timing. Not only did he possess a potent late kick, but he knew when to raise his game — which he did on the first Saturday in May of 1941. Not only did Whirlaway win the Derby by eight lengths that day, he also recorded a +1 LSR and set a new track record (2:01-2/5) that wasn’t broken until 1957.


    1. SECRETARIAT (1973)

    No horse — past, present and probably future — ever had the kind of spring that Secretariat had in 1973. After getting upset by stable mate Angle Light in the Wood Memorial, “Big Red” produced a series of efforts that culminated with a Triple Crown, an Eclipse award for Horse of the Year and a new title: legend.

    Secretariat’s 1:59-2/5 clocking remains a Kentucky Derby record and his +3 LSR is tied with His Eminence (1901) for the best ever.