• Handicapping the Gotham

    POSTED Mar 5, 2011
    Aqueduct (03/05/11)
    Race 10 * 8.5 Furlongs * Dirt

    4-Toby’s Corner (5/2)
    Fair Odds: 8-5
    7-Preachintothedevil (6/1)
    Fair Odds: 4-1
    9-Dawly (12/1)
    Fair Odds: 10-1
    5-Stay Thirsty (9/5)
    Fair Odds: 9-2

    COMMENTS: On pure numbers, TOBY’S CORNER is a standout, possessing the best overall speed and pace figures. The son of Bellamy Road is coming off a two-length score in the Whirlaway — a race that saw the second-place finisher, JJ’s Lucky Train, come back to win the Miracle Wood with a 104 Brisnet speed rating — and even his worst LSR (-7) is competitive against these. PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL was just beaten 5 ¾ lengths by the top choice, but he’s been steadily improving and could be right there if “Toby” regresses even a little bit. Adjusted for his wide trip, DAWLY recorded about a 101 Brisnet speed figure last time, which puts him squarely in the hunt, despite mediocre LSRs. My pace figures suggest that STAY THIRSTY will need to improve drastically to win today, which is certainly possible… but at 9-5 on the morning line, I’ll look elsewhere.

    BET(S): WIN on 4 at odds of 8-5 or greater and/or PLACE on 7 at odds of 4-1 or greater.

    Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics

    Races (Selections): 21 (23)
    Wins: 8
    Rate: 38.1%
    Return: $68.05
    ROI: +47.93%

    (This year's published selections through 03/04/11.)

    Ryan said...

    I'm with you on Toby's Corner. Hopefully they go nuts on Stay Thirsty to give us a better price.

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