• Weekend Wagers

    POSTED Mar 11, 2011
    Gulfstream Park (03/12/11)
    Race 8 * 8.0 Furlongs * Dirt

    1-Uncle Mo (3/5)
    Fair Odds: 1-5
    3-Madman Diaries (6/1)
    Fair Odds: 6-1
    4-Rocking Out (4/1)
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    COMMENTS: Not surprisingly given that the race was written for him, UNCLE MO looks like a standout in Saturday’s Timely Writer, with overall speed and pace numbers far better than those of his competitors. I think MADMAN DIARIES has the best upset chance as he is likely to control the pace. ROCKING OUT has raced well in both of his career starts.

    BET(S): WIN on 1 at odds of 1-2 or greater.

    Gulfstream Park (03/12/11)
    Race 10 * 8.0 Furlongs * Dirt

    2-Our Dark Knight (8/1)
    Fair Odds: 9-2
    1-Rule (3/1)
    Fair Odds: 3-1
    6-Tizway (5/1)
    Fair Odds: 4-1

    COMMENTS: It’s possible that OUR DARK KNIGHT has class issues and may not be able to handle the class hike on Saturday (he’s moving from the allowance ranks into a Grade III stakes event). However, I was impressed by his latest effort (101 Brisnet speed figure, -5 LSR) and think he’ll offer value in this spot. RULE has had two wide, stalking trips and now draws the rail in a one-turn route race — that should mean it’s “go time” for the speedy son of Roman Ruler; definitely the one to beat. On his best, TIZWAY lays over this field — but he’s six years old now.

    BET(S): WIN/PLACE on 2 at odds of 9-2 or greater. WIN on 1 at odds of 3-1 or greater.

    Tampa Bay Downs (03/12/11)
    Race 10 * 8.2 Furlongs * Dirt

    8-Royal Delta (7/2)
    Fair Odds: 7-5
    11-Marion Ravenwood (12/1)
    Fair Odds: 12-1
    1-Miss Smarty Pants (4/1)
    Fair Odds: 6-1
    9-Her Smile (10/1)
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    COMMENTS: When I saw the replay of ROYAL DELTA’s first and only race, I was impressed; when I computed her pace figures, I was amazed. In addition to breaking her maiden by 12 lengths after mildly steadying a couple of times at Belmont Park on Oct. 30, Royal Delta recorded a 0 (zero) LSR in that race. She hasn’t raced since, so whether or not she’s fit for this race is anybody’s guess, but if she is… well, as Don Meredith used to say: turn out the lights, the party’s over. MARION RAVENWOOD regressed badly (while still winning) after a promising debut at Parx Racing and could offer value in this, her fourth lifetime try. MISS SMARTY PANTS earned a 97 Brisnet number while racing three-wide around the turn last time. HER SMILE figures at a price.

    BET(S): WIN on 8 at odds of 7-5 or greater.

    Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics

    Races (Selections): 22 (24)
    Wins: 8
    Rate: 36.4%
    Return: $68.05
    ROI: +41.77%

    (This year's published selections through 03/11/11.)

    Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager and the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).
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