Alabama Stakes odds analysis
I don't normally make an odds line for every race I handicap, but a lively discussion on Twitter Friday morning concerning the Alabama Stakes (click for free BRISnet.com Ultimate PPs) made me take a closer look at the six-filly field, and where the value might be considering I think the public will overvalue the chances of both Its Tricky and Plum Pretty.
It's a worthwhile exercise because it puts into clearer focus the effect takeout has on a race.
You would think a third of the field being underlaid (based on your handicapping) would make for overlays elsewhere, but that's not always the case. Don't always assume that because you dislike a favorite that you should automatically love something else. Also, don't just "throw out" a favorite. I'm not in love with It's Tricky, but she's obviously a big win threat (I have her fair odds at 4-to-1). I'll pitch her in most pick Ns, but she'll win the Alabama enough times that if I like a price horse elsewhere in the sequence that I don't want to be against her if I can get a $20 horse home.
You would think a third of the field being underlaid (based on your handicapping) would make for overlays elsewhere, but that's not always the case. Don't always assume that because you dislike a favorite that you should automatically love something else. Also, don't just "throw out" a favorite. I'm not in love with It's Tricky, but she's obviously a big win threat (I have her fair odds at 4-to-1). I'll pitch her in most pick Ns, but she'll win the Alabama enough times that if I like a price horse elsewhere in the sequence that I don't want to be against her if I can get a $20 horse home.
Based on my odds sheet below, I expect the value to be on St. John's River, who I think will be 7-to-2 (my ML) but is fair value at 3-to-1 as a winner of this race 25% of the time.
In addition to discussion about who will win the race, the Twitterverse also considered who will get bet in the race. I have Inglorious as the fifth choice, but one astute observer thought she'd go postward as the second choice. I don't see how, but we'll see.
For past performances of the Alabama, click here, and of course wager on TwinSpires.com!
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