• Would you "Let 8 Ride" with $382?

    POSTED Jan 6, 2012
    Two astute win bettors have a big decision to make on Friday night:

    Bet $382 to win on one horse from a full field entered in the eighth race at Delta Downs or pocket the winnings that started out with a simple $8 win wager on Wednesday night?

    Most would take the near 50-to-1 return on a two-race win parlay, but there are some interesting wrinkles to encourage players to let it ride:

    Betting the $382 to win enters the player into a consolation pool for a $500 prize. All those who let it ride on Friday and lose share in $500. Since there are only two players left, you're guaranteed $250 if you let it ride. You'd win the full $500 if the other player either A) bets the $382 and wins or B) does not play at all.

    If you let it ride and win then you become eligible for a $1,000 prize on Saturday by letting it ride a fourth time. If you do let it ride on Saturday then you share in the $1,000 regardless if you win or lose. If you win, though, then you get to keep all your winnings, the share of the $1,000, and are enshrined in the Jay Trotter Hall of Fame.
    There's a lot of gamesmanship involved in deciding what to do on Friday. Since you're guaranteed $250 no matter what, either player would actually only be risking $132 for a chance at $500 minimum.

    If neither player lets it ride then that is $118 left on the table since one player would be guaranteed the full $500 share. If one plays and wins and the other doesn't play at all then the latter also lost $118 because the winning player wouldn't qualify for the $500 consolation by advancing to the guaranteed (if you let it ride) $1,000 on Saturday.

    A $36.40 winner on Thursday narrowed the field from 52 players after Wednesday to just a pair on Friday. It's more likely that future games will feature more players going into Friday, which changes things dramatically as well.

    But as far as tonight's race is concerned my strategy would be to find the most likely winner because the $250 guarantee turns almost any underlay into an overlay. The live money bet is $382 to win, but you're only risking $132. A $382 bet at even money returns $764 but the $132 risk means you're getting better than 9-to-2, and if you're the only player to survive into Saturday then you're guaranteed $1,000 so that even money has suddenly become more than 8-to-1!

    If things get really heavy, then perhaps one of the lucky Trotter wannabes will want to consult Glen Fullerton, who successfully wagered $100,000 on Super Saver's nose in the 2010 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.
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