Showing posts with label Delta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Delta. Show all posts

  • Let 8 Ride is back on TwinSpires

    POSTED Jan 10, 2013 By Unknown
    Wednesday's cancellation at Delta Downs made it one day easier to get to Friday's $500 insurance round in the popular Let 8 Ride game, but landing on a winner for Thursday's race isn't any easier with a decent-sized field expected for the Louisiana-bred $5,000 claimers.

     Brisnet.com is providing free Ultimate Past Performances for the Let 8 Ride promotion, and the first thing I always look at when handicapping a track I'm not as familiar with is the Ultimate summary page, which gives track bias stats such as win percentages and impact values for certain running types and post positions at the distance for the current meeting.

     This is an important snapshot of the type of trip that typically wins the race. The figures for this race indicate no prevailing bias, but I think it'd be fair to say that if all other things are equal then early speed off the rail is the best trip.

    New to Let 8 Ride this year is the provision that only your first $8 win wager counts toward the contest. Used to be you could advance with any successful $8 win wager (including buying the race by betting all starters to win for $8) but for this year only your first $8 win wager counts, so choose it wisely.

     My pick for the first race of the first contest is #4 My Bell Boy (nobody in their right mind bets the four horse. The four is a joke, Trotter!), who fits the preferred profile as the one who figures to show some speed off the rail with the added benefit of three wins on an off track, including the only off track race showing on his PP lines.

     I'm forgiving My Bell Boy's last start, which was a nonthreatening fifth as the 4-to-5 favorite against this claiming level, but he was wide after a sluggish start with a slow pace ahead of him. Things will be more honest today with a change in jockey and a slight drop in class based on facing only Louisiana breds this time.

     Sea the Soldier makes sense as the favorite off his off-track win last out, but that was against cheaper, and I'll go against him stringing together a fourth solid race in two months against better and more pace. Little Dollar is drawn outside and could have enough pace to run at late, but the intangible of dropping down for such a cheap price off the layoff after a competitive 2012 against much better is enough for me to lean toward My Bell Boy.

    Good luck!


  • Hot to Trotter

    POSTED Jan 25, 2012 By Unknown
    Congratulations to A.C., J.F., and J.M. for being the inaugural inductees into the Jay Trotter Hall of Fame!

    Unfortunately Jennifer Tilly wasn't waiting at the end of the Let 8 Ride rainbow, but in addition to their enshrinement into sacred space, the trailblazing trio turned $8 into $911.20, a 37.8% premium from the $661.20 the Trots earned on their win betting. The $250 extra came from them being one of four players to select winners on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The fourth person not inducted (C.K.) lost his $8 win bet on Saturday but still collected $250, which is pretty great considering he started with an $8 win bet and lost a parlay wager.

    LSS--that's long story short--you can win even when you lose with Let 8 Ride... provided you've already won on Wednesday and Thursday, of course.

    Speaking of winning on Wednesday, a new game starts with race 8 tonight (and every Wednesday) at Delta Downs! Check the link for free Ultimate PPs w/ comments from Brisnet.com.

    Tonight's race is all about speed. It's an entry-level allowance race for older females, and each of the eight entrants have either an "E" or "E/P" pace designation. That's just an indication of running style, though, based on the pars for the race only a few of these are likely to actually make the lead.

    My top pick is #3 Phone Marybe, whose bad races came when marooned on the outside but is inside for this. I like that he's rated and won, which should do the trick against this bunch.

    I've advocated dutching in the first round of this game because the value comes from making it to Friday when losers split $500 and winners player for an added $1,000 on Saturday. I like Phone Marybe so much in this race, I'm not willing to give up value by betting others. I'll add the caveat that since #s 4 & 7 look to be underlays based on their morning line, I might take a flyer on #s 1, 2, or 5 if any are big bombs, but with only 8 horses signed on and lots of speed, I expect a compact odds board and thus the trey is the play.

  • Figure 8 is really great

    POSTED Jan 18, 2012 By Unknown
    If "Is it Wednesday yet" isn't the mantra of Delta Downs players everywhere then--barring a lawsuit from ESPN--it should be because nothing can beat the excitement of turning an $8 win bet into more money and bragging rights through the Let 8 Ride promotion.

    Well, OK, many things can, and if you're doing one of those things--e.g. riding a roller coaster, bowling a 300 game, or eating at an In N Out Burger without WiFi access--then you're excused from playing in tonight's contest, but otherwise download those race 8 Ultimates for tonight at Delta Downs and find the winner!

    Through two weeks there has yet to be a player who has successfully let it ride on four consecutive days, which entitles the winner to not only cash but also enshrinement in the Jay Trotter Hall of Fame. I made it through day one last week with a $22 winner but needed two win bets to get there. That luxury isn't available on day two, and I got suckered into a bad favorite. The second choice won and paid a healthy $7, but I was down to squadouche.

    I might go four deep tonight depending on odds. I expect two of my choices to be absolute bombs and the others are logical favorites. If one of the logical horses wins at 2-to-1 then I'll actually lose $8 because I've risked $32 on a $24 return. However, the game is to Let It Ride, so a winning bet on Thursday should put me in the black. This would not be my plan normally if not for the provision that those who surivive into Friday play for a $500 prize pool with $1,000 on the line for those who make it to Saturday. I'm not actually eligible for the added value, but I like to play along to the letter of the rules so that I can offer the best advice possible. Plus all that churn gets me closer to bronze status.

    My top pick in here is #6 Smart Trick, one of only three "E" speed ratings in the ten-horse field, but who, with six Quirin Speed Points, is easily the fastest of that trio. Those with an "E" Speed Rating win one-mile races at Delta at a 35% clip, so he's poised to be in the right spot. I'm not thrilled with an 0/10 trainer in 2011-2012, but the apprentice allowance should help, and this horse has been fast enough to win at this level. There's lots of other stuff to like, too: It's his third-start off the layoff, and he had a decent work between today and his last start. He also moves inside from post ten last week after racing near the lead three wide.

    Speaking of workouts leading up to a third start off a layoff, #3 Lone Renegade also fits that bill, and he also moves inside from making his last start from post ten. His last two starts off the layoff were on a muddy track, and he's 1/12 on off tracks but 7/52 on fast tracks. This one wouldn't be impossible.

    The two favorites, #4 Hitnotiq and #7 Dowhatnow, make perfect sense and wouldn't shock me, but they will be overbet. In the spirit of this game, and I want to use them in the hopes of continuing, but either could have too much work to do late and if both do then this thing pays boxcars.

    For those who need some assistance figuring out what $8 to win pays, here's a little help from Schoolhouse Rock.

  • Turning $16 into $89

    POSTED Jan 12, 2012 By Unknown
    I played the home version of Let 8 Ride on Wednesday at Delta Downs. I call it "the home version" because I'm not eligible for the cash prizes available to those who successfully let it ride tonight, though if I string four winners in a row together then I'll still consider myself a charter member of the Jay Trotter Hall of Fame!

    There's a long way to go, of course, and the waters get really deep when you consider from here on out any player only has one bullet to fire each day.

    I played two horses to win on Wednesday--#8 Leaveittomebaby & #9 Anna Jane's Crane--the former made a couple moves but faded in the stretch as the latter spurted away in the final strides to punctuate a gate-to-wire win with a $22.40 mutuel to return $89.60 for my $8 to win (and about 9-to-2 on my total investment).

    Fifteen players besides me made an $8 bet on Anna Jane's Crane. They can either let it ride with an $89 win bet on tonight's eighth race (link accesses free Ultimate PPs from Brisnet.com) or pocket their $89.60. If they let it ride and lose then they're out their investment from Wednesday; if they let it ride and win then they have tonight's winnings plus a chance to compete for a $500 consolation prize on Friday or a $1,000 prize for making it to Saturday.

    I'm going to let it ride on #6 My Star Runner, who I don't expect will be his morning line price of 3-to-1, but who I do expect to still offer value even at 2-to-1. There is more speed in this race than in Wednesday's "Let 8 Ride" affair, but none seem as capable of carrying their speed against these as well as My Star Runner, who gets class relief and is 2/3 both at the distance (5f) and at the track.

    #1 Where's Cain is an alternative, and if this were Wednesday I'd be tempted to use him as well if he were 4-to-1 as the morning line suggests, but the dynamics of the game definitely have me staunchly in My Star Runner's corner as the most likely winner.

  • Would you "Let 8 Ride" with $382?

    POSTED Jan 6, 2012 By Unknown
    Two astute win bettors have a big decision to make on Friday night:

    Bet $382 to win on one horse from a full field entered in the eighth race at Delta Downs or pocket the winnings that started out with a simple $8 win wager on Wednesday night?

    Most would take the near 50-to-1 return on a two-race win parlay, but there are some interesting wrinkles to encourage players to let it ride:

    Betting the $382 to win enters the player into a consolation pool for a $500 prize. All those who let it ride on Friday and lose share in $500. Since there are only two players left, you're guaranteed $250 if you let it ride. You'd win the full $500 if the other player either A) bets the $382 and wins or B) does not play at all.

    If you let it ride and win then you become eligible for a $1,000 prize on Saturday by letting it ride a fourth time. If you do let it ride on Saturday then you share in the $1,000 regardless if you win or lose. If you win, though, then you get to keep all your winnings, the share of the $1,000, and are enshrined in the Jay Trotter Hall of Fame.
    There's a lot of gamesmanship involved in deciding what to do on Friday. Since you're guaranteed $250 no matter what, either player would actually only be risking $132 for a chance at $500 minimum.

    If neither player lets it ride then that is $118 left on the table since one player would be guaranteed the full $500 share. If one plays and wins and the other doesn't play at all then the latter also lost $118 because the winning player wouldn't qualify for the $500 consolation by advancing to the guaranteed (if you let it ride) $1,000 on Saturday.

    A $36.40 winner on Thursday narrowed the field from 52 players after Wednesday to just a pair on Friday. It's more likely that future games will feature more players going into Friday, which changes things dramatically as well.

    But as far as tonight's race is concerned my strategy would be to find the most likely winner because the $250 guarantee turns almost any underlay into an overlay. The live money bet is $382 to win, but you're only risking $132. A $382 bet at even money returns $764 but the $132 risk means you're getting better than 9-to-2, and if you're the only player to survive into Saturday then you're guaranteed $1,000 so that even money has suddenly become more than 8-to-1!

    If things get really heavy, then perhaps one of the lucky Trotter wannabes will want to consult Glen Fullerton, who successfully wagered $100,000 on Super Saver's nose in the 2010 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.