A North America Cup Contest Or Conquering?
But all eyes are on Mohawk this Saturday, June 16.
The $1.5-million North America Cup for 2012 is a curiosity
as well as a spectacle for a few reasons, each arguably sound.
The likes of Sweet Lou have not been seen over the past few
years. As fast as pacers win, Sweet Lou has been among the fastest and he came
back at three with a speedy vengeance, winning both of his miles in less than
1:50. We never put speed at a premium but when any horse is superior solely on
speed, we take notice.
Though Sweet Lou has out-paced the rivals he will meet in
the 29th edition of this lucrative event for soph-colt pacers, the
season is young and the others are still maturing, some in ways that are yet to
be revealed. Here is the field in post-position order:
$1.5-million Pepsi North America Cup
1-Bettors Edge
2-Dapper Dude
3-Time To Roll
4-Sweet Lou
5-Thinking Out Loud
6-State Treasurer
7-A Rocknroll Dance
8-Warrawee Needy
9-Pet Rock
10-Simply Business
2-Dapper Dude
3-Time To Roll
4-Sweet Lou
5-Thinking Out Loud
6-State Treasurer
7-A Rocknroll Dance
8-Warrawee Needy
9-Pet Rock
10-Simply Business
The elim winners, Sweet Lou and Dapper Dan, got first dibs
on chooing post positions. Sweet Lou’s trainer Ron Burke said he chose post 4
because “it gives us a chance to do whatever he wants to do.” Burke refers to
the colt, not driver Dave Palone.
The most revealing thing Burke said recently was that
although he was happy with Sweet Lou’s win last week (1:47.4 with
three-quarters in a flaming 1:20.1 after going first up to take the lead by a
:53 half), one thing bothered him. He said, “There were horses right behind
him.”
Sweet Lou has blown away fields but last
week looked a bit sluggish as Warrawee Needy attempted to gain on him late.
Sweet Lou was tested a bit getting the top by the half but he worked a bit to
ward off the late challenge.
Also, Burke said the colt had “a little virus” but it cleared
up. Stress and a recent, though harmless sickness, place some doubts in the
minds of smart handicappers. Make no mistake that neither of these items are
enough to count on Sweet Lou burning out come the race. He could be beaten on
the pure improvement of others; certainly there are signs that need attention.
The aforementioned Warrawee Needy qualified with a sub-1:50
mile but scratched from the Upper Canada Cup before the elim, where he was all
out for Jody Jamieson (who drove last year’s winner, Up The Credit). He should
be given some points for almost pacing down Sweet Lou in his first race of the
season.
Dapper Dude was 9-1 in his winning elim and he saved plenty
of ground to do it. Staying out of trouble and well off the pace, John Campbell
(who has been in the driver’s seat for a record seven “Cup” victors) steered a
classic third-over, slingshot journey to defeat the top five public choices in
that mile.
A Rocknroll Dance has been Sweet Lou’s nemesis since their
frosh campaigns. He got to the final. He was in a different elim and as the
public choice finished fifth, just the spot he needed to make it into the
final. That result came from a grueling first-over trip that found him in
severe traffic for his stretch drive. He wound up beating second-choice
Michael’s Power, who surprised most by not making the top five in his elim.
Pet Rock is getting better with every start while not
getting the proper public respect. We gave him to you in the Art Rooney and
even in a short field he won as an outsider. He was third in his elim, steady
but not gaining in his final half.
One or two arguments for Thinking Out Loud have surfaced but
they include a scenario that promises a perfect trip. No one can predict that
case, which could also be true for Bettors Edge, Time To Roll and State
Treasurer.
Simply Business has only one way to win, racing exactly as
he did when we nailed him in last year’s Metro Pace at 20-1. Speed has to burn
the better foes to a crisp so that Simply Business can win five or six wide, closing
as the only one left with any energy. It is not a likely scenario.
All of this leaves us with an enigma within a puzzle within
a mystery based upon the performance of Sweet Lou. With an easy swoop to the
lead within the first half or perhaps even to the top from the start and
keeping his speed engine clean through four quarters, if there is more in his
tank than he has already shown he could win this in a record sub-1:47.
"There has never
been a doubt in my mind that he could pace as fast as we saw him go [in his
elim] Saturday. I don’t think we’ve seen yet how fast he can go,” Burke said.
“That’s maybe his best quality, his ability to recover immediately. Two minutes
after he’s off the track you never would know he’d been on the track. I think
there are horses that can go with him but his ability to shut himself down and
be at rest will separate him from other horses.”
In the scenario where Sweet Lou doesn’t fire on all cylanders, beware of the prices for A Rocknroll Dance, who should clearly race better than his elim; and Pet Rock, who, all things being equal, should get the best trip. These upset scenarios are the best we feel can happen.
Mares Mania
The $376,000 Armbro Flight on the Cup card features
Action-Broadway, who is looking to shock the final field and the fans again
after a 20-1 upset last year and a 69-1 victory last week. China Pearls is the
likely choice but Action-Broadway and Cleopatre Duharas each have a great shot
to beat her.
Action-Broadway did not get an ideal trip last week, was far
off the pace, had excess cover and still won at the wire. She can overcome the
worst trips and prevail successfully. This race could be one of the best in her
career.
Cleopatre Duharas shocked in her eliminaton, finishing third
as a rank 50-1 outsider. The mare (that was our choice last week) will be
looking to close as long as she can stay flat. She makes some miscues here and
there but is a sharp trotter who was on the Hambletonian Trail last year.
She has matured in the sophomore transition and will be looking to do the same
thing Action-Broadway did last year, win at a big price.
Fillies ‘Fan’
Also on tap Cup night is the $642,000 Fan Hanover final for
soph-filly trotters. American Jewel will be looking to give trainer Jimmy
Takter back-to-back Fan Hanover wins. Stamped as the likely favorite, she is a
front-pacing type but as a younger filly she could go too fast at the wrong
time. Two other fillies, which are our selections, will be seeking to make her
work for the money.
Angel Scent was able to clear the front in her elimination
to come up slightly short in the end. She gets major post relief this week and
won’t have to work so hard to get the top.
Also in the mix is Pirouette Hanover. She challenged Angel
Scent for the front and cleared but lost the lead to a closing Romantic Moment
(which was our choice). She should be able to get a pocket trip and swing out
late for the spoil.
Gold Cup
The free for all pacers get their time to shine in the
$100,000 Mohawk Gold Cup on Saturday. As usual, it is a wide-open affair for
this division of older pacing males. River Shark and Aracache Hanover look to
be able to mark their spot as the top pacer to beat in this year’s battle
royale.
Aracache Hanover returns to his home track. He has done his
best mainly in Canada. In fact, he beat Foiled Again in his Molson elimination
but went insane fraction in the final to burn out. This horse is a speed demon
and it’s very likely that he doesn’t ship well, suggesting why he could prevail
in the Bettor’s Delight or the Graduate. He may be able to cut the fractions
and let loose in the stretch to show us what he’s really got on his home turf.
The other horse that will be fierce is River Shark. The six-year-old
Mark Ford trainee seems to have hit his top form this year. He can go a
first-over mile and still win. He’s been racing in top conditions this year and
has a victory in an Invitational at the Meadowlands, where he beat the
morning-line favorite We Will See. He will likely be a healthy overlay in this
race.
‘Trail’ Mix
Saturday night at Mohawk includes some Hambo eligibles on
the warpath for big bucks in the $530,000 Elegant Image Final for the gals and
the $351,000 Goodtimes for the guys. Check out the stories on those and
Pocono’s Earl Beale, Jr. Memorial elims at our exclusive Hambletonian Trail blog page.
All of the stakes featuring eligibles are archived in story form at the Hambletonian Society pages.
Bookmark those pages, visit them regularly through the
spring-summer schedule, aiming for the first Saturday in August.
Harness at Hoosier Park is going great guns and so can you
when you play the Thursday night programs. TwinSpires players earn 10 TSC Elite
Points for all wagers they make on those programs. Also, the Pick 4 features a
guaranteed $5,000 pool (races four throuth seven). Post is 5:30 EST.
Race 9 through Race 12 make up June 15’s no-takeout Pick 4. Let’s look at some of our contenders for a small ticket that could present a big return.
Leg 1
(8) Total Up won so big last week that it is hard to believe he could bounce, even from the 8 hole.
Leg 2
(7) Jess Or No had a tough start dueling and still went on to take the race into his win column. (9) Cherry Tree Nicole stormed from the 10 hole and went very wide to make a go at the leader but took only the fifth spot. She is a good overlay for this ticket.
Leg 3
(1) Barona Destiny was gaining with a strong outside move but could not sustain the pace and deserves a shot here. (7) Vantage stunk up the track as the choice; we’ll ignore that and go with ‘er again.
Leg 4
(5) Blissfull Winds was third, backed well, and could fire better in this one. (8) Heartland Express won with a strong brush and may need it again from post 8.
Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.
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