Showing posts with label pick 4. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pick 4. Show all posts

  • North America Cup Headlines Huge Stakes Program; Captaintreacherous Returns

    POSTED Jun 11, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    The $1-million Pepsi North America Cup features a glimpse of the glamour-boy division’s best pacers. It is the biggest purse for the group all season but it may or may not be the showcase of the top colt. After the elims last week we were left with this field, arguably the best of those three elims. Historically, the “Cup” is a chaotic event that can produce many one-hit wonders, as well as there are times the resolute champion colt doesn’t make it to the final (vis a vis Western Vintage in this edition). Our horse-by-horse analysis is a click and a scroll away.

    Before the Cup, there is the inaugural $100,000 Meadowlands Maturity, open to all four-year-old pacers but featuring one solid star—Captaintreacherous. Two horses in this field are the only to defeat him in 2013. Most in the field of these have already raced. Add to that the swarm of “mutineers” that have provided so many overlays on one of the sport’s most brilliant stars at two and three and are bound to resurface for this, plus, the seasonal debut of Captaintreacherous launching from post 10 makes this a sullied event.

    The Mohawk Saturday night program is strewn with high-profile events and exotic wagering and we have our fingers on the pulse of it all below. The multi-race exotic in focus is Race 7 through Race 10, the All Stakes Pick 4, with a $100,000 (Canadian) guarantee. Those stakes, in order, are the Roses Are Red, Mohawk Gold Cup, Fan Hanover and North America Cup, all covered below, along with suggested horses for the other two Pick 4 sets that evening.

    More from the Mohawk evening and some other soph-colt stakes events are handled on our sister blog, the Hambletonian Trail.

    Weekdays are harness plentiful, too, check out the TwinSpires-Hoosier perks for players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per dollar bet. Click here for details. Every Thursday night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. Click here for details. And the ongoing 10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the meet. Click here for details.

    Follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on Twitter to get any and all late-breaking information on racing events and betting challenges that transpire between the publication of the two TwinSpires harness racing blogs.

    Maturity Mayhem

    Over and over again last season, the contingent of anti-Captaintreacherous bettors refused to give him his due in the win pools, so he went off at remarkable odds—for a colt so combatant in victory. What you may find in the Meadowlands Maturity on Friday, June 13, is that group counting on every element that may be able to thwart every other colt. But if Captaintreacherous is anywhere near the performer he was in 2013, those mutineers will be looking for excuses again while “treacherous” wins as a strong overlay.

    There is a knock or two on any one of the other nine in this field in general; add to that the treacherous qualifier—or should we call it a “quali-fire”?—and the race goes to the swift, talented and charismatic—which all describe Captaintreacherous. Watch for the overlay, a mere even-money send-off is worth it. Or just watch and enjoy.

    The Cup  .

    Here is the field for the Cup, in post position order, with individual comments and a summary at their end.

    Beat The Drum
    Only a skewed trip by the top colts in this field gives Beat The Drum a shot at winning. He has a decent late kick but only got into the final having saved some ground and finding some room passing tired ones.

    McWicked
    The fiery mile produced in his elim will impress the speed-handicapping brigade but it may be his worse enemy in the long run. In fact, in his elim win, Sometimes Said had the more difficult mile, finishing second the hard way, without clearing the top. This guy reminds me of a few colts trainer Cassie Coleman has managed, all of them spotty with their speedy miles.

    Tellitlikeitis
    If a quick three-quarters is going to ruin a few of these, count Tellitlikeitis among the ruined. First off, without a good spot to let those in front of him work hard, it is difficult to see him engaging in any challenges. He may wind up a second-tier member of the division and we certainly don’t see him shining in this group.

    Lyonssomewhere
    Jimmy Takter pacers are every bit as dangerous as Jimmy Takter trotters and Lyonssomewhere could prove it. His soph career so far shows the kind of speed that could set this race up for a closer but look out because Lyonssomewhere can also close. That’s because he is a product of Somebeachsomewhere, who won this race, as did one of his sons, Captaintreacherous. It is hard to believe that “Lyons” is the only son of “Somebeach” in this field. Add Takter to tactics and bloodline and you have a potent blend of danger.

    Lets Drink On It
    To show the basic impotence of speed as a major factor in a top class, look at how Lets Drink On It let McWicked take over last week. “Drink” didn’t only sink, he let Sometimes Said, who worked harder, fly by him. At the risk of writing one more wisecrack, we don’t imagine any glasses being raised for the success of Drink in the Cup.

    Ideal Cowboy
    This gelding got into the race as the random draw. He is not of this ilk and will be very long odds that still represent an underlay. There just isn’t any case for him to be here, no less win.

    Hes Watching
    We all should know the story of this New York-bred colt by now and still have reservations about his talent. In the Cup he meets the best group of colts he may ever face and that alone is reason to imagine he finishes off the board. In order for him to change my mind and even consider him in the class of some of these, he will have to win this through adversity and domination, a rare combination that stamps a true hero.

    Luck Be Withyou
    When this one peaks it will be done with the maturity he still seeks this early in the season. Maybe in the Little Brown Jug or when he gets as good as he became when he beat Sometimes Said in the Breeders Crown at two in 2013. But he isn’t as good as he will get this season and so he gets only a few chances in the percentage pool for this race.

    JK Endofanera
    He must be painfully respected in this race because he has exploded at three and his loss in the elim last week as a dead-on favorite should be embraced considering he gave way to Lyons, who we applauded a few paragraphs ago. He is sharp and still improving upon how he has returned to the races at three with major talent and willingness. If the bettors let him go this time he becomes a major overlay, with post 9 actually benefiting his tactical speed.

    Sometimes Said
    From the time he almost defeated Luck Be Withyou at the Breeders Crown (he got our public support during live coverage of the race at Pocono Downs) we have respected Something Said and certainly more than the betting public when he faces the top tier in his own division. He is better than most of these guys on a few levels and has his work cut out for him if he is going to race as he should to be at the wire with one or two others.

    SUMMARY—The top three contenders for us are Lyonssomewhere, JK Endofanera and Sometimes Said, though which provides the strongest overlay remains to be seen in the wagering. We hope you find respect for these individually or in some order of your own preference to use them in your win, place, show and exotic wagers.

    Fan Hanover Hussies

    The Fan Hanover Final, worth $457,500, lines the starting car with 10 filly pacers, which are unevenly matched in pure muscle. We gave you Uffizi Hanover last week and she surprisingly went off at 6-1, mostly due to the loyalty of the locals, making Nat A Virgin and Beach Gal the top two choices. “Uffizi” may rightfully be the public choice in the final, as the Breeders Crown winner (we supported her when she won there at two last November) seems to tower over this group.

    One positive is the failure of favorites in elim two. Won by Table Talk (37-1), the top choice of the division and early choice to win this event, Precocious Beauty, quit badly in the stretch (finishing seventh, which was last) and only the third choice, Major Dancer, was present at the wire, second to the winning longshot, while second-choice Lady Shadow was also very bad at 5-2, finishing sixth. If the locals return to their beloved fillies, Uffizi may be a soft favorite, still well worth it in this crew. Bahama Blue and Beach Gal could round out a decently priced triactor.

    Armbro Flight

    The versatile mares will contest in the $266,000 Armbro Flight Final on the Cup program, highlighted by such famed gals as Bee A Magician and Perfect Alliance. Yet, even with these two dominant forces in the field, it does not take away from the profit potential in this event. One mare that fits this criterion is D’orsay, an elimination winner caught in the shadow of Perfect Alliance, who set a Canadian record of 1:51.4 in the other elimination.

    Since Perfect Alliance has received a resounding amount of press, D’orsay could be a price but not anything close to the 54-1 odds she carried when we cashed on her last week. She looks to sit a stalking trip in a race where the pace will be hot; the mile looks to set up for a mare like D’orsay. Also beware of Bee A Magician, who may inflate in price after her back-to-back second-place efforts to both mares mentioned above.

    Red As Roses

    The $330,000 Roses Are Red Final included another winner for us in the elims, as Yagonnakissmeornot (7-1) beat the top choices in round two. Anndrovette, in the first elim, overcame some trouble in a dynamic win over her mare-pacing rivals. “Ann” will probably get the public’s nod and “Yagonna” should get some play. Somwherovrarainbow always gets action and will do so here.

    But in the final Summertime Lea has got to be considered a contender. She had the toughest trip in the Ann elim, which was the better field of the two, and got no respect from bettors at 27-1. That could have been a strong warning to the others from the Ron Burke-trained mare. She may be offering near her odds last week, since the money has to spread thin by the time they get to her after the first three mentioned and Shesbesingin, Camille and Shelliscape.

    Another ‘Cup’

    Older male pacers shoot for pieces of $100,000 in the Mohawk Gold Cup. It’s a mixture of local campaigners and the usual suspects from the States. A look at the morning line (ML) may indicate this is going to be a good betting race. How, for instance, can State Treasurer be the ML choice? That would be wonderful. Winning the Molson Pace at Western Fair is not Mohawk and you won’t, for one, see the same Foiled Again that was beaten there.

    This crowd will continue to like Thinkin Out Loud and the spottily speedy Warrawee Needy, so some win money is going to be spread around. Keep an eye on the odds for Sunshine Beach, who has an excellent spot to make a go at stealing the mile. And on the outside, Bettors Edge and Mach It So may work out some good trips to be in the thick of it. But will Foiled Again go off 7-2 or more? That will be hard to pass up.  

    The Pick 4s

    There are three major Pick-4 wagering sets on Cup night. We offer horses (by post) that we feel you should consider having on your ticket(s).
    Early Pick 4 (Races 4—7): Use 5,8,10/ 3,4/ 5,7/ 1,4,6
    Middle Pick 4 (Races 7—10): Use 1,4,6/ 5,6,8/ 2/ 4,9,10
    Late Pick 4 (Races 11—14): Use 6, 10/ 3,7/ 3/ 9

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Buffalo
    6/14/14, +Adelias Prince R2

    Hoosier
    6/14/14, +Jackson Wyatt R5

    Maywood
    6/12/14, +Baksidebar Nlounge R1
    6/13/14, +Dunside Art R1

    Meadowlands
    6/13/14, +Ma Chere Hall R6

    Meadows
    6/13/14, +SJs Hottie Won R5; +Martini Twist R6

    Pocono
    6/14/14, +Hes A Lock R1; +Giant Sculpture R14
    6/15/14, +Drop The Ball R10

    Saratoga
    6/13/14, +Mcattee R10
     
    Scarborough
    6/13/14, +Ladyofcastlebrook R1

    Tioga
    6/14/14, +Jam And Jelly R8

    Vernon
    6/14/14, Youwillwishyouhad R5; Printing A Place R7; +Oozies Bad Boy R9; +Whitemountain Power R9

    Yonkers
    6/13/14, +Geton The Way R1; +Sign Of The Moment R1

    Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition.      

  • More Profit Hunting In Yonkers’ Series

    POSTED Apr 9, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    Here we go again with Yonkers Raceway’s George Morton Levy Memorial and Blue Chip Matchmaker pacing series. It’s round four this weekend. The ‘Levy’ and Matchmaker divisions, as we wrote in our review blog, have been tough to win with the kinds of prices we are used to getting but we have managed to adapt to the uneven flow of prices due to having so many horses coupled. We have managed to squeeze some decent prices out of these fields, especially when place and/or show betting is allowed and even when place isn’t allowed, by hitting exactas with the favorites that pay reasonably.

    So, we go at it again, trying to overcome the adversity presented by the Levy fields and scores of bettors content to cash tickets worth anything. We still feel there are some serious contenders aboard for the series and there is no reason not to zero in on their chances to pay in spades should any win.

    At the Meadowlands again this Friday, we engage in the Pick 3 that is inclusive with the Early Pick 4 and offer contenders for the difficult multi-exotics. Please consider these horses for your combo ticket and for win, place and show (last week we hit two winners that paid off well across-the-board.

    Until Nov. 18, Hoosier Park is the place to play for TwinSpires Pick-4 bonus bets. The bonus feature includes every Pick 4 on every Hoosier program. We will be adding Hoosier to our horses to watch (H2W) list and suggesting horses during the week on Twitter @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires. Click here for details.

    And of course, the horses to watch (H2W), presented exclusively for TwinSpires harness blog, carries on its productive parade of contenders that usually offer a bounty of across-the-board prices and serve as profitable members of exotics.


    Leveling Levys

    Yonkers Raceway presents three divisions of Levy’s fourth-round on Saturday, April 12 and we are excavating for value despite the adversities presented in these four-turn battles.

    In division one the value problem goes deeper than usual, with a field of seven reduced to five betting entities due to Ron Burke having a trio going for him. If you want to go outside of the entry to win and keep it as a key for exotics, use Keystone Velocity. Although he comes from the 7 hole here, last week, in only his fourth race of the season, he made up about 10 lengths to finish fourth at 75-1. It’s an upset depending on any number of situations but worth a shot considering the others outside of the entry.

    Division two also houses a three-pronged Burke team. The best of the rest from last week is our choice last week, Versado. He closed 8 lengths in his trip to finish fourth at 48-1. With eight starts in 2014 he has finished second five times. Again, he is worth backing as an upset and a good second to the Burke brigade in exotics.

    Finally, we face the mighty Foiled Again, the most prolific earner in the sport’s history; something few to none of his supporters at the windows can say assisted in their success. To add insult to injury, Burke’s other contestant is Bettor’s Edge, who is in his best form so far this season. His efforts in this series have even been bettor than those of Foiled Again, considering his moves during the miles. If you intend to key the Burke duo, use Dancin Yankee and Texican N behind them but if neither of those win, don’t expect to need Pinkertons to escort you home after you collect.

    Matchmaker Mares

    Friday, April 11, there are three divisions in the fourth round of the Matchmaker series. Unfortunately, two of the three mares that had impressive trips last week appear in the first division this week and the other is missing. There are three short fields this week.
    In division one the outsider, again, should be Fashion Mystery. We nailed her for second in round two at an astounding 44-1, catching the triple, too (Ramalama, here in post 2) each exotic paying quite well compared to the series’ payoff history thus far. She is in post 5 of six in division one and should be a strong player.

    We loved the way Bettor B Lucky used the final quarter last week in a two-move effort that got her home fourth but she comes along with the other Ron Burke property, Charisma Hanover. That one has had few excuses for losing twice already but as an entry she and “Bettor” may reduce the value element of this race. Fashion Mystery may still offer a decent price to win and for an exacta due to the unknown element here, the first Matchmaker appearance of Monkey On My Wheel.

    ”Monkey” has been very competitive up north, is a wild card in any race and won an overnight here last week. We can only leave her out of the contest here, considering she is up against stronger content than last week and may be the ruin in a speed duel, which favors our choices.

    Division two features one Burke horse, so with no coupled entries we can shoot for a well-deserved upset, if we can beat Anndrovette. Angels Delight will be the second choice and can beat “Ann,” but we want the entity least likely to grab the public’s attention in a rare seven-horse Matchmaker field.

    Our support, therefore, will go to Let’s Go Higher. She was weighed with post 8 last week and began 11 lengths out of it. She finished a mere 4 ¾ lengths behind Yagonnakissmeornot, who won by 2 over Angels Delight. From post 7 “Higher” needs to get a stronger position mid-field early and use her one burst to take advantage of what may be a burning duel.

    Division three brings together six strongly competitive mares. This is a tight event to call and it may go to a low-priced overlay if bettors lean on a single mare. We can hope wagering centers upon Yagonnakissmeornot, who won here last week and the betting will be softer for Somwherovraraibow. But the latter is three for three this week, a buzz mare and her speed badge will impress bettors. With those two on the outside, then, we may have a shot with a decent price from Summertime Lea from post 1. Judge the price for yourself but as a third choice she should be worth support.

    Pickin’ In Jersey 

    The Meadowlands Early Pick 4 (April 11, $30,000 guaranteed pool, 15-percent take), tails off into the Pick 3 with its second leg. Here are some suggested contenders for the multi-race exotics, as well as they are sound across-the-board competitors.

    Early Pick 4 (Races 3 through 6)
    R3—use 7 Special Command
    Pick 3, (Races 4, 5 & 6)
    R4—use 3 Miss Machqueen, 7 Day To Ponder
    R5—use 6 C-O-To Bluegrass, 7 Lindy Mcdreamy
    R6—use 8 Hobe Sound

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “AE” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Cal Expo
    4/11/14, +Jimmi’s Fantasy N R9; +Sleigh Belle R11
    4/12/14, Western Tower R9

    Freehold
    4/12/14, +Screen The Call R9; +Royal Todd R11 

    Hoosier
    4/10/14, Alligator Falls R1
    4/12/14, Stop The Traffic R7; Jammin Joshua R11

    Meadowlands
    4/11/14, +Cult Status R7

    Meadows
    4/11/14, Spicey Victor R13; +JJ Gladiator R14

    Miami Valley
    4/10/14, Xtra Perfect R5

    Pocono
    4/12/14, +Banker Volo R3; Bagel Man R4; +Desperation R8; +Trys Little Prince R8

    Pompano
    4/5/14, +Mystical Muscles R4

    Rosecroft
    4/12/14, +Chepachet R12

    Saratoga
    4/10/14, +Muncie R6
    4/11/14, Sarkozy R12

    Scarborough
    4/12/14, +Southwind Missouri R4

    Vernon
    4/12/14, Unicorn Hanover R7; Sundowner Bob R8

    Yonkers
    4/11/14, +Mctaylor R7

    Ray Cotolo contributed to each Thursday edition.      

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Apr 6, 2014 By Frank Cotolo

    This weekend’s features, once again, did not equal the successes of our overnight choices, mostly due to what has been occurring with the features, that is, the “Levy” at Yonkers. We managed to do well enough, though, considering the circumstance.

    In a rare state of agreement with Harness Racing Update’s Bill Finley, we believe bettors have not had much to target in the series’ with public choices annihilating prices., Five of the nine winners paid $3.10 or less in the first two Levy legs. The hubbub centers on the many entries from the Ron Burke barn and the coupling rule. As Finley writes, you cannot blame Burke or Yonkers, it is the fault of the racing commission for not changing the rule.

    For the fact of the terrible prices, we feel nothing short of famous for our performance at Yonkers on April 5 in the series third leg. We nailed division three with Apprentice Hanover in a race with two coupled entries, The field of seven had only five betting entities, making the price (no place or show betting) sterling for the occasion. Apprentice Hanover paid $7.50.

    As well, in division two, using the race favorite with our second choice, Sapphire City ($6.70, no show betting) created an exacta worth $17.20. You can only imagine how the prices would have swelled had there been no coupling.

    In the Matchmaker at Yonkers on Friday, April 4, we supplied and exacta and two thirds of the trifecta with the favorite atop the tickets. Fashion Mystery (44-1) paid $11 to place (no show betting) resulting in an exacta worth $34.20. Our other choice, Ramalama did not pay off for third but contributed to the trifecta worth $74.50.

    Then, Friday at the Meadowlands we offered a few horses, which you may have added to your Pick 3 and Early Pick 4 tickets and/or played across the board. We gave you the first-leg winner, Upfront Elizabeth ($11.80, $6.40, $2.80) and the fourth-leg winner, Drift Away ($25.20, $11.40, $6.80).

    The 50-cent bonus Pick 4 bonus at Buffalo Raceway on Wednesdays with a 10-percent-bonus on winning the exotic ended with April 5’s combination. Our Twitter suggestions did not produce winners but on the board, two were huge payoffs for place and show. Blow Away was third, paying $12.80 in leg one, while A And G’s Doll paid $25.40 to place and $9.10 to show.

    TwinSpires now switches to Indiana with the Hoosier 10-percent Pick 4 Bonus. Every time you cash a winning Pick 4 ticket at Hoosier Park, you receive a bonus equal to 10 percent of the gross winnings, up to $500 per night. We will assist on Twitter occasionally, with suggestions for your tickets. Follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires for choices.

    For complete details:
    | http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park


     H2W RESULTS

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta).

    Winners

    Make You Famous, $9.80, $3.80, $3.60 (Exacta $21.20), Pompano
    Silverlode, $9.80, $4.60, $3.20 (Exacta $16.20), Cal Expo
    Lucky Man Again, $4.80, $3.40, $2.20, Cal Expo
    Beach Boy Tiger, $3.50, $2.40, $2.10, Saratoga

    Seconds

    Doctor Gates, $20.40, $6.50, $5.30, Buffalo
    Muncie, $6.50, $2.70, Saratoga
    Trys Little Prince, $5.80, $3, Pocono
    Me Tarzan, $5.20, $3.20, Cal Expo
    Sparky Mark, $3.60, $2.40 (Exacta $9.60), Pocono

    Thirds

    Village Jackson, $8.60, Saratoga
    Milliondollarmarch, $4.30, Saratoga
    Mama Made Me Blue, $2.80, Miami Valley
    Southwind Missouri, $2.80, Scarborough

    News And Notes

    Maven, Uncle Peter, Shebestingin, Archangel, D’Orsay and Rockin Amadeus were among the stars qualifying over the weekend at the Meadowlands. The return to the races for several stakes types is eminent. Archangel prepped after spending 2013 at stud. He now resides in the Burke bar. He won his qualifier racing against the wind. Four-year-old Ma Chere Hall, a success as a choice at this blog last year, was second for trainer Jonas Czernyson, who also sent out Mistery Woman and aged mares Maven and D’Orsay. They finished second and third, respectively, behind Jimmy Takter’s millionaire Uncle Peter. Shebestingin came back for a second trial and won for trainer Joe Holloway. He had another winner with Always B Miki, sired by Joe’s classics winner Always A Virgin.

    April begins a full slate of stakes action at Northfield Park. The $100,000 (guaranteed) Courageous Lady will go to post on Friday, April 25. A nationally open stakes event for North America’s top three year-old filly pacers, it is the first national stakes race of the 2014 season. Among the 16 fillies nominated to the Courageous Lady are last year’s frosh standouts A La Notte Hanover, Fiyonce, Rustys Bliss and Sister Stroll. The connections of top three year-olds in the country have shown great interest in the newly added $500,000 (est.) Carl Milstein Memorial. The race for three-year-old colt and gelding pacers is the richest single standardbred event in Ohio for 2014 and has been slated for Friday, Aug.15. Included in the 42 nominees are Allstar Partner, Boomboom Ballykeel, Luck Be Withyou and Western.

    The $150,000 Cleveland Classic is the final open stakes event this year. North America’s top soph-pacing colts take the stage on Friday, Dec. 12. There are 38 colts nominated to the Cleveland Classic, including last year’s standouts Allstar Partner, Boomboom Ballykeel and Hes Watching. In other racing news at Northfield Park, the $150,000 (g.) Battle Of Lake Erie is set for Saturday, July 19 and has 25 nominees that have combined career earnings in excess of $23 million, including Apprentice Hanover, Bolt The Duer and Foiled Again. “Battle” nominees also include Aracache Hanover, Clear Vision, Heston Blue Chip, Michaels Power and Sweet Lou.

    Northfield Park’s Stakes Calendar for 2014:
    Friday, April 25 - Courageous Lady
    Thursday, July 3 - Ohio Sires Stakes (frosh filly pace and trot) 
    Saturday, July 19 - Battle Of Lake Erie
    Ohio Sires Stakes - (two- and three-year-old colt pace and trot)
    Saturday, July 26 - Summit County Fair Stakes
    Friday, Aug. 15 - Carl Milstein Memorial
    Friday, Sept. 5 - Ohio Sires Stakes (two- and three-year-old filly pace and trot)
    Friday, Dec.12 - Cleveland Classic

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye

  • Yonkers Series Ensue With Third Rounds

    POSTED Apr 2, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    Yonkers Raceway’s the George Morton Levy Memorial and Blue Chip Matchmaker pacing series continue with round three Friday and Saturday. The ‘Levy’ and Matchmaker divisions have been strong for crowd choices and certainly the dual wins by former title-holder Foiled Again are not offering player profit but sweeps in the series are traditionally rare, so we will hoist the flag for some serious contenders that will pay in spades should any win.

    At the Meadowlands on Friday and Saturday, since we do not have any other major events to cover, we will engage in some exotics and offer contenders in difficult multi-exotics.

    And of course, the horses to watch (H2W), presented exclusively for TwinSpires harness blog, carries on its productive parade of contenders that usually offer a bounty of across-the-board prices and serve as profitable members of exotics.

    Now, with Hoosier Park harness in full regalia, TwinSpires P4 bonus is back. CLICK HERE
    ’Levy’ Continued

    Yonkers Raceway’s Saturday, April 5 program, features four third-round divisions of Levys for the older male pacers. There is still a lot of action to go in these four-turn battles.

    The first division sends only six to post, two of which are Ron Burke trainees that did not fire yet. In round one we took a shot with Texican N but against Foiled Again he paced poorly. Last week, however, he was third to Foiled Again, sent off at 87-1. He won’t be in that territory this round but Foiled Again is not among the Burke brigade in this field. So, Texican N has a great chance and should be a value wager against this Burke duo and the two winless foes inside of him.

    The second Levy division is also a sextet, with Arachache Hanover looking for his first win of the season. So, however, is Malak Uswaad N, who we had in round one and came second at 14-1. Beware, too, of Sapphire City. She made big gains last week with an 8-length rally to three-quarters at 23-1. Both of these stand chances to topple the obvious Bettor’s Edge if “Arachache” challenges his rail journey (a very possible scenario).

    The third division has seven foes with another successful duo from Burke and the two-time surprise of the series, Mach It So and Apprentice Hanover. There is little room for a am upset here unless it is reflected in the way the public wages. Apprentice Hanover may be higher odds this week than “Mach,” as the public tries to make back what it lost on him. So look for a wager if “AH” winds up a third choice here. 

    The final Levy episode of the night is either another theater for Foiled Again fans (how can we bet him at his prohibitive odds, even if you feel he has all the percentage points?) or another is a stream of what could be the best night to bet Levy for price? From post 7, Foiled needs another monster mile but will that be compromised by PH Supercam, the second highest money-earner this season, from post 1? It’s your call to back Versado (five seconds, poised to blow out) and Bet On The Law (one for two, fresh and raring to make an impression in the series).

    Matchmaker Mares

    The third preliminary of the Matchmaker series commences Friday with only a trio of splits.

    Division one could pose to be a mild upset if we look favorably (as the crowd won’t do) at Fashion Mystery’s chances. Last week in division four she was game at 20-1 against the Ron Burke entry’s winner Rocklamation. She may be able to close as well as Burke’s gal, here again and bound to be a choice. Ramalama from post one may overcome any first-over problems like those that hurt her last week but she won’t offer a payoff near that of “Fashion.”

    The second division also appears worth the support of an outsider whose race last week was impressive, though it failed to produce an upset. Feeling You dueled early with the dominant Somwherovrarainbow and that cost her a spot on the board, if not the win. She was 15-1 then and does not have to deal with “…rainbow” here. Krispy Apple may get more support than last week when as the favorite she was unable to catch 4-1 Ideal In Vegas—and she should have done that. Charisma Hanover deals with post 7 here which may mean nothing but it could also mean a step that puts her behind Feeling You, which is what we will want to happen.

    Division three may see Anndrovette from post 8 in a battle to dominate the lead with the “now” horse, Ideal In Vegas. That could cost them both the race, with others eyeing the lead adding up to a three-quarters time that can allow Uf Dragon’s Queen to take to her full advantage and sweep through at a price. Last week “Queen” gained 5 lengths from the half to three-quarters before fading behind Angels Delight (not here tonight), who beat Anndrovette and Charisma Hanover.

    Jersey Jaunts

    We won’t get verbose with our choices for Meadowlands Early Pick 4 (April 4), which entails a Pick 3, we will simply list the horses you may wish to add to your tickets. Handicapped well before there is even a morning line, no less the wagering itself, we are estimating horses that may offer prices with value (not to be confused with raw longshots).

    Early Pick 4 (Races 3 through 6)
    R3—use 4 Upfront Elizabeth, 5 Naughty Machbean
    Pick 3, (Races 4, 5 & 6)
    R4—use 4 Brookroad Knight
    R5—use 4 Cult Status
    R6—use 4 Banker Volo, 5 Drift Away

    These horses to not appear on the H2W list below but we encourage them to be looked upon as strong across-the-board contenders aside from their worthy additions in the multi-exotics, as listed above. Non-winners will be added to H2W next week.

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “AE” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Buffalo
    4/5/14, +Doctor Gates R2; +Veto Hanover R4; Four Hoof Drive R6; +Twilight Jack R7

    Cal Expo
    4/4/14, Lucky Man Again R6; +Looks Don’t Count R8; Sleigh Belle R9; +Split Ticket R11 
    4/5/14, Silverlode R5; +Me Tarzan R12

    Dover
    4/6/14, Dancing Cruiser R11

    Freehold
    4/5/14, +Kings Point R3; Royal Todd R4 

    Meadowlands
    4/4/14, +Notreadytobenice R9; +Grey Ice R11; 
    4/5/14, Screen The Call R1; +Sentosa Island R3; +Berkentine Hanover

    Meadows
    4/4/14, Stronski R2; JJ Gladiator R9; Checkov R12

    Miami Valley
    4/3/14, Swimsuit Model R12
    4/4/14, +Mama Made Me Blue R7; Flightreactor R11

    Pocono
    4/5/14, Desperation R3; +Republic Of Panama R4; +Eddie Sweat R7; Sparkly Mark R10; Trys Little Prince R13

    Pompano
    4/5/14, +Mystical Muscles R4

    Rosecroft
    4/5/14, Pier Pressure R4; +Nothing Wrong R5; +I Turtle R7; +Macho Mcgraw R10 

    Saratoga
    4/3/14, Beach Boy Tiger R8; Bullville Honey R8; Muncie R10
    4/4/14, +Mambo Italiano R7; +Milliondollartorch R7; +Village Jackson R10; +Wellthereyougo R10

    Scarborough
    4/5/14, Regal Delight R1; Southwind Missouri R5; Roy Orbisong R9

    Yonkers
    4/4/14, +Eagle Artesian R3

    Ray Cotolo contributed to each Thursday edition.      

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Mar 23, 2014 By Frank Cotolo

    The past week was stellar for winners and exactas, not just in raw number but in the prices. Plus, we were one short of nailing the Wednesday, March 19 TwinSpires bonus Pick 4 at Buffalo Raceway. That is where we will begin the parade of profits.

    The 50-cent bonus Pick 4, a weekly play offerint a 10-percent-bonus on winning the exotic, resulted in three of the four winners on March 19. In the first leg we singled Kisses N Kicks ($29.80, $18.80, $5.10); in the second we singled Stonetag ($10.60, $6, $3.30); in the fourth we had two contenders finishing fourth and eighth, respectively; and in the final leg we had two, winning with Good Luck Penny ($12.20, $4.90, $2.70).

    The Pick-4 is offered from the fifth to the eighth races every Wednesday evening. We assist with suggestions for your ticket via Twitter -- @FrankCotolo, @TwinSpires and @BuffaloRaceway and implore you not to pass the less-than-obvious contenders in your ticket and as win, place and show possibilities.

    Our contenders in the feature races this week (not our features, track events) included the first round of “Levy” and Matchmaker series at Yonkers and the Clyde Hirt and Horse & Groom legs at the Meadowlands.

    In the Horse & Groom we gave you Banker Volo ($4.80, $2.60, $2.20) in the second leg after finishing third with Crosbys Clam Bake ($2.20) at 5-1 in the first division, won by the public choice. In the Clyde Hirt we were third with Burkentine Hanover ($3.40) at 12-1 in division one. In the second division, Nathaniel B scratched.

    In the quartet of Matchmaker divisions on Friday at Yonkers we only had one third, Economy Terror ($2.60), finishing fourth, sixth and seventh with mares going off at 38-1, 12-1 and 94-1, respectively.

    Saturday’s Levy divisions were meant to aim at reasonable upsets, considering the five miles were strewn with stars. We came close with one, Malak Uswaad ($6.10, $9.30 ok), second to the public choice at 14-1 (Exacta $18). We picked up a meager win when Sweet Lou finished second ($2.60, $2.10—no show betting) with his entry mate, launching an exacta ($5.50) with our second choice, Pan From Nantucket ($2.10). Dancin Yankee, a second choice in another leg, finished third ($2.40). Our other choices, Word Power (5-1) finished fourth and Bet On The Law (26-1) finished sixth.

    The Levy story of the first round was the return of Foiled Again, who won the fifth division, his debut race of 2014. We will be covering the next five rounds and the finals of both series as spring settles in to a warmer state.

    The horses-to-watch (H2W) list results are below, once again featuring the win, place and show and exacta successes. There were five exactas scored, with one cold and the others combined with race favorites.

    We endorse across-the-board and the exotic plays you can find through the H2W, which is exclusively for your TwinSpires harness bankroll. Use your own judgment and handicapping but of course, consider the H2W horses, as they prove to be in league with good paying exotics and deliver healthy place and show cash when they don’t pick up the top spot.

    H2W RESULTS

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta).

    Winners

    Mystically Mine, $45.40, $34.40, $13.60, Cal Expo
    Doomsday Hanover, $17, $4.60, $3.20, (Exacta $26.60) Rosecroft
    Skad’s Winner, $14.40, $6.20, $4.20, Pompano
    Missys Diamond, $11, $4, $3.60, (*Exacta $23.40) Cal Expo
    Camilla The Terror, $10.40, $4.40, $4.40 ok, Miami Valley
    RA Shakenbake, $9.50, $3.60, $2.80, (Exacta $22,40) Buffalo
    Coraggioso, $2.90, $2.40, $2.50 ok, Yonkers

    Seconds

    Love Raider, $5.20, $4.20, Rosecroft
    Waldy Jimmy, $5.20, $3.40, Pompano
    Cordealia, $4.20, $3.60, (*Exacta $23.40) Cal Expo
    Wild About Eagle, $3.40, $3.20, (Exacta $5.50) Cal Expo
    Love Live Laugh, $3.20, $2.20, (Exacta $7.40) Cal Expo

     Thirds

    Gambler’s Vacation, $4.20, Rosecroft
    Lust, $4, Cal Expo
    Handsoffmycupcake, $2.80, Meadowlands


    News And Notes

    Despite our contacts in Hollywood, we have not been able to discover specific news about the harness racing movie, “Johnny Longshot.” The Emilio Estevez project began principal shooting in 2013 and even developed a trailer while filming in Ohio. However, its category in the trades was changed to “in development” and promotional activity ceased. Estevez is the director, writer and star, with co-producer credits going to Gil Netter (“Life of Pi”) and Lisa Niendenthal (“Mona Lisa Smile”). There are reports of a script re-write holding up production. Allegedly the story, where Estevez plays harness horseman John West, was being “updated” in October of last year.

    Miami Valley Raceway will race on Monday, April 7, to make up for a weather-related cancellation on Sunday, March 2. With the addition of the make-up program, Miami Valley will be racing six nights a week during the final four weeks of its inaugural season. Tuesday nights will be added beginning April 15. Miami Valley offers three consecutive nights next week (Thursday, Friday and Saturday March 27-29).

    A meeting is slated for March 25 to determine the 2014 race dates for Hiawatha Horse Park, Dresden and Leamington raceways. The three tracks are outside the eight-track standardbred alliance group which are already assured funding for the next five years, and are along with Ottawa and Fort Erie vying for the remaining $8 million from the province to conduct racing (that includes expenses as well as purses). The group is comprised of the two WEG tracks, Mohawk and Woodbine, the two Great Canadian Gaming tracks, Flamboro and Georgian Downs, Hanover, Clinton, Grand River Raceways and Western Fair, so a lot is at stake in the Ontario skirmish for racing dates.

    As spring allows Minnesota to thaw from a frigid winter, the opening of Running Aces nears. Running Aces will conduct a 54-night meet in 2014 with racing beginning Wednesday, May 28 and ending Saturday, Aug. 30. Racing will be conducted every Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday throughout the summer with a 7 p.m. (CST) post time, except for Sundays when the action will begin an hour earlier.

    The 21st season of harness racing at Hoosier Park is set to begin Friday, March 28, with a new post time of 5:15 p.m. (EDT). Racing follows a Friday/Saturday schedule the opening week, a Thursday, Friday, Saturday schedule the second week and then resumes a Tuesday-through-Saturday schedule for the remainder of the meet. With an extended stakes schedule offered for the first time, the racing season goes through Nov. 15.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Jan 26, 2014 By Frank Cotolo

    Next weekend we cover the end of January and the beginning of February as the claws of winter continue to scratch regions beyond the Polar Vortex. The rough-and-tough standardbreds will be racing as the month turns over.

    The weekend that just passed offered some decent winners at decent prices on our horses-to-watch list (H2W). Make sure you check out the across-the-board prices and the exactas included because next week you may decide to back some of your horses to win, to win and place or across the board. After Monday, Jan. 27 all H2W horses from last week’s list will be updated below.

    We chose two races from Charottetown Drivers Park for the first time while offering promising plays in overnights and we scored with one of the pair on Jan. 25. Scotian Lass was our first choice in Race 6 and he won, paying $9.90, $5.30 and $2.80. Our other first choice, Honeymoonisover finished third (2.60) at 6-1.

    We engaged Dover on Jan. 26, offering Kenzie’s Beach Boy in one event. He finished sixth at a price we could never have predicted, 56-1. Our second Dover event resulted in Stubbs Hanover finishing third ($4.40) at 10-1 and our third choice, Polaris, finished second ($2.60, $2.20), while our second choice was sixth.

    Every Wednesday night, TwinSpires’ 10-percent-bonus Buffalo Raceway 50-cent Pick 4 wagers continue. We assist with suggestions for your ticket. For Jan. 22’s exotic, via Twitter -- @FrankCotolo, @TwinSpires and @BuffaloRaceway – we had the highest paying horse of the winning quartet for the second week in a row. We singled Artsy Princess ($13, $7.80, $3.20).

    H2W RESULTS

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed as the winner in the same race (*asterisks note the particular races along with track name). This holds true, also, for trifectas if three H2W horses finish win, place and show.

    Winners

    Tiger Bait, $15.40, $7.40, $4.80, Cal Expo
    Runaway Disirae, $14.10, $5.30, $3.20, Fraser
    Traers Hall, $10.80, $5.60, $4.60, Freehold
    Trend Spotter, $9, $3.80, $4.20 (ok), Meadows
    Bootswiththefur, $6.40, $3.80, $3, Meadows
    Lord Terror, $2.60, $2.20, $2.10, Dover

    Seconds

    Devil’s Embrace N, $8.60, $5, Dover
    Red Hot Yankee, $5.80, $3, Pompano
    One Last Shot, $3.10, $3, Fraser
    Cinderella Smiles, $3, $2.30 (Exacta $12.70), Northlands
    Kaya’s Sweetheart, $3, $2.60, Freehold

    Thirds

    Cyclone Cully, $7.60, Freehold
    Branding Party, $4.30, Fraser
    Melboy, $3.80, Cal Expo
    Tulfra, $3.80, Freehold
    PL Dragon, $3.60, Meadows
    Too Young Man, $3.50, Northlands
    Jolt Of Whiskey, $3, Fraser
    Ala Carte Bill, $2.80, Freehold
    Arpeggio Hanover, $2.60, Dover


    News And Notes

    Illinois harness is still under Mother Nature’s spell, with arctic temperatures taking their toll on the young 2014 racing season. Balmoral Park announced delaying two qualifying days, originally scheduled for Jan. 28 to, Jan. 29 as more extreme cold is expected next week. Downstate, Maywood Park will conduct qualifiers on Jan. 30. The first draw for a Feb. 5 start date at Balmoral Park will be held Jan. 31.

    Don’t go looking for harness racing at Harrah’s Philadelphia until some serious negotiations are complete. At a meeting of the Pennsylvania Harness Racing Commission this week, the commission suspend harness racing at the racino due to issues with the condition of the racetrack. According to several reports, the commission took the action following complaints about the condition of the track’s surface, ignited after a terrible spill in November that severely injured driver Anthony Coletto. The track was scheduled to resume racing in early March.

    A monumental agreement between United States and French standardbred industries has been signed. USA representatives Joe Faraldo, Alex Dadoyan, Tim Rooney, Sr. and his son, Tim, Jr., were in France to negotiate details of a breeding, wagering and simulcasting agreement between the countries’ racing officials. The agreement was signed on Jan. 25.

    In addition to a breeding agreement, the two sides will work toward establishing a calendar of simulcasting of and wagering on Yonkers Raceway races in France and French races into the U.S. by the end of 2014. Faraldo called the deal’s completion “an historic, monumental agreement … the predicate for international simulcasting into Europe and a move forward to more global simulcasting of U.S. harness racing.” There is little history of cooperation between France (the country that created pari-mutuel racing) and the U.S. beyond the institution of a few celebrated races.

    The French breeding book has been closed to American stock for more than a century. Things have certainly changed. The French have also made agreements with Slovenia and Ireland. After the agreement was settled, Dominique de Bellaigue, the French representative, said, “These agreements will help our respective countries build upon a foundation to the expansion of international simulcasting.”

    All of the countries involved, of course, are suffering from a poor business atmosphere. Racing is in a global depression compared to its state prior to the digital revolution. Although the new technology has been embraced by the industry all over the world, rebuilding has been necessary to attain a new generation of supporters.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye 

  • The Wise Dan Pick 4 conundrum: When even money on 2-to-5 isn't worth it

    POSTED Sep 13, 2013 By Unknown


    This scene from The Simpsons came to mind when considering whether to single Wise Dan in the $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 on Sunday at Woodbine, or go against him in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

     Seeing the reigning Horse of the Year win his ninth consecutive race would "please the gentleman" as the shopkeep says in the video above, but he would do so at no more than his morning line odds of 2-to-5 and maybe even at 1-to-5, and as Homer J. says, "That's bad."

     But realistically speaking, Wise Dan has a 75%-80% chance of winning, which actually represents value at 2-to-5, and that's good, but I think he'll be used on more than 80% of people's Pick 4 tickets, and that's bad.

     As you can probably tell by now, I've decided to try to leverage Wise Dan as a single who wins 75%-80% of the time rather than take 3- or 4-to-1 on him losing. I work through the math of that decision and the ticket I'm playing in a Pick 4 analysis I did for Brisnet.com & Woodbine. You can get that (as well as Spotlight Selections from Mark Johnson) for FREE by CLICKING HERE.

     If you're reading this, I'm assuming you already have at least a little racing/handicapping knowledge, so I won't insult that by telling you why Wise Dan is the obvious choice, but it is worth noting just how much better he looks on paper than his rivals.

    Wise Dan's 21.8-point Prime Power advantage over Za Approval is among the largest gaps I've seen. I don't have numbers for that high, but horses with a 10-point advantage win more than half the time. We don't have a Prime Power figure for import Trade Storm, but his Class Ratings tell us that he's closer in ability to Wise Dan (.7 off his average last three races) than Za Approval (1.1 points better). With Class Ratings 1 point is a lot, so Wise Dan has a comfortable advantage, but if I were playing anyone against Wise Dan I'd be looking for at least 6-to-1 on Trade Storm, and as crazy as this is going to sound, a $8 straight exacta (for $2) on those two I don't think would be taking the worst of it.

     Forte de Marmi is the other big favorite in that $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 sequence, and I'd much rather beat him than Wise Dan, and I will try to do so with IRISH MISSION, who is the only horse in the field besides Forte de Marmi to earn a triple digit Brisnet.com Speed Rating in victory.

     That italicized caveat is important to me in this race because Irish Mission's only chance to win will be on the front end, so he's absolutely going to have to go as fast as can as far as he can, and 12-to-1 is a fair price on that prospect.

     Wise Dan certainly doesn't help add value to the Pick 4, but even if you think of it as a Pick 3, how exciting would it be to start a Pick 3 with a $20 horse beating an even money shot. Real exciting, I tell you. This exciting.

     Speaking of exciting, the stakes action begins Saturday at Woodbine with a pair of Win & You're In races for Breeders' Cup juvenile turf events: The Natalma for males and the Summer for females.

     Triple Crown Insider took time out of its busy Keeneland September yearling sale to discuss the current two-year-old landscape with a focus on more main track types, but touched on the Woodbine races as well.

  • The beat goes on among a common refrain

    POSTED May 17, 2013 By Unknown


    The Triple Crown Insider Preakness preview echoes how many feel about this year's race.

    After waxing poetic about many of Orb's eight foes, Joel Cunningham finally gets the question point blank from Jon Siegel, "Does Orb win the Preakness?"

     "I think Orb wins, Jon; he just keeps getting better."

     There are reasons why any of the nine horses in this year's Preakness could win, but there's little disagreement among racing's cognoscenti that Orb is the most likely to do so. I pegged his fair odds of winning at even money (50/50, a coin flip), and I'd play him to win at 6-to-5 or better.

    Unfortunately, I think he'll be 4-to-5, which means no win bet, but a projected underlay in one pool doesn't mean there won't be opportunities elsewhere. The $1.5-million guaranteed all-stakes Pick 4, for instance, features competitive races in which I expect at least one race to produce a $20+ payout.

    The 2004 Preakness Pick 4 paid 751-to-1 with 7-to-10 Smarty Jones completing a sequence of two second choices and the $24.80 Mr. O'Brien. Even if you had spent $250 singling Smarty Jones to get there, you still managed to turn 7-to-10 into 2-to-1, and a similar situation could occur on Saturday with Orb. (Plus TwinSpires.com players have a shot at an extra $10,000).

    Vertically speaking things get tough. Wheeling Orb in the exacta doesn't make a lot of sense because only Titletown Five will provide the possibility of a rainmaker. $8 to win on Orb is likely to pay $14-$16, and several of the $1 exactas will pay less than that. However, if you're willing to toss a few (as I am) then you could do OK. I'll watch the board, but if any horse not named Departing or Titletown Five is paying $20+ underneath Orb then that will be a bet for me. $6 to win on Orb is in the $10-$11 range, so taking that six and trying to get $20 (but maybe even settling for $15) seems fair value to me.

    The other side of all this is that if Orb is an underlay in the win pool then there is likely an overlay or two as well--especially since both Departing, Mylute, Oxbow, and Titletown Five are likely underlays as well. Part of my strategy with singling Orb in most multi-race plays will be to leverage overlays in the Preakness win pools. I.e., I think a horse like Mylute will be more overbet in the win pool than other pools.

    This approach inhibits the chance at a BIG SCORE, but with only 9 horses in the race, few total throwouts, and a legitimate favorite the chance for a BIG SCORE was mitigated, anyway. I'm happy to grind a profit and be ready with guns blazing for the Triple Crown try in three weeks. 

  • Getting over a hump day hump at Keeneland imperative to multi-race success

    POSTED Apr 10, 2013 By Unknown
    As a Pick N player, the most important race today at Keeneland is not the featured seventh--an entry-level allowance worth $60,000--but the blue collar fifth--a starter allowance for $7,500 types worth $21,000.

     It's not the type of race that makes the fifth so important but where it falls on the card. Keeneland has only eight races today, and since it starts its early Pick 4 in race 2 instead of the lid lifter, the fifth race is pivotal as both the last leg of that Pick 4 as well as the opening leg of the late (races 5-8) Pick 4. The fifth race is also the second leg of the Pick 5 and is one of four races on the card that is a part of three Pick 3s on a day there is only six of them total.

     I.e., if I whiff on race 5 it's very unlikely to be a good day for me.

     So what to make of this all important race? Well, #7 Point Finish & #12 Tobes the Man are clearly the most likely winners of this group with Point Finish even the more likely of the two, but Point Finish will take more money than Tobes the Man, which is why I have them as joint "A" selections. #10 Headstart is 20-to-1 on the morning line, and although I'm talking about this race mostly in the scope of the multis, this gelding would absolutely be a vertical key for me with the two obvious horses at anything close to that 20-to-1 price.

     Elsewhere on the card I would absolutely love it if #1 War Dancer really were 6-to-1 in the aforementioned featured seventh race, but I just don't see the supposed favorites taking that much more money than this one. 4-to-1 would be more than fair, though, and #12 Five Iron is an intriguing gate-to-wire threat.

    The eighth race closes it off and features a $80k+ Super High Five carryover. That bet gets so expensive so fast even big carryovers rarely lure me in, but I might take a stab since I like my "A" trio and have another trio of horses I don't like for the exacta at all.

    The complete ABC grid for the eight-race card on Wednesday, April 10, at Keeneland is below.

     

  • Our first Derby Championship Series sure thing?

    POSTED Mar 8, 2013 By Unknown
    The question for me approaching the Tampa Bay Derby day card at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday is not whether I will play Verrazano to win the feature race, but how I will play Verrazno to win the feature race.

    (for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of Kentucky Derby Championship Series races, CLICK HERE).

    The answer to that question involves the answer to another question: What will the current favorite to win the Kentucky Derby go off at to win this race? If it's 4-to-5 as his morning line suggests then I don't see any need to get too cute in the multi-race pools because I view that as enough value for a straight wager. Mike Welsch of Daily Racing Form said Friday morning on "At The Races" with Steve Byk that he thinks the More Than Ready colt could drift as high as even money!

     Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic, and I think the only way I see those prices are if I turn him into that as a pick N single. The Pick 5 includes two other stakes, but the turf claimer as the cap on that as well as the late Pick 4 has me less than enthused. The all-stakes Pick 3 as is the Hillsborough-TBD double since I'm not overly keen on horses I expect to take money in the turf stake for older females.

     If I could lock in 4-to-5 right now on Verrazano I would and not look back, but the specter of 1-to-2 or worse when the gates open has me thinking I should plot a multi-race wagering strategy for sure.

     I have Verrazano ranked third on my Kentucky Derby rankings behind Itsmyluckyday and Mac The Man. The TCI boys have Flashback on top, and he runs on the same day as well in the San Felipe Stakes. Joel Cunningham has some nerves about both likely favorites. He's half right, as I think Verrazano airs (see above) but Flashback gets beat by Hear The Ghost.

    Jill Byrne also gets in on the race previews for KentuckyDerby.com

  • Harness Update--Buffalo Pick-4 bonus watch

    POSTED Feb 19, 2013 By Frank Cotolo

    Here is a harness blog update, with our choices for the TwinSpires 10-percent bonus for Buffalo Raceway’s Wednesday Pick 4 on Feb. 20. This is not a ticket combo, per se, just suggested contenders that may offer value to whatever ticket you create.

    Race 5
    Quiet Judy is on our horses to watch list and shows up on a weeknight card, in the first leg of the Pick 4. She was the best of the rest, finishing second in a field that was far back from the winner. We cannot ignore her tonight, certainly not at the price we expect.

    Wygant Belle was well supported last week after finishing second at 111-1. The mare fits well here and is a good addition to this ticket.

    Race 6
    Nancy Irene is the class of this field and even from post 8 the mare may be too good for them. While everyone hammers Best Bet Yet, this mare drops back to where she raced best after a tough trip with Open company and will offer top dollar.

    Race 7
    Motivator may not have won his series leg as well as the morning-line choice Perfekjenlmnalfas but a look at the race shows it was quite impressive and he could turn the tables here on the probable favorite.

    How Forever Feels may be more aggressive this time but later in the mile and if there is room he has a good brush to make up important real estate that could topple the field at a price.

    Race 8
    Hasty Pulse has only to maneuver a good trip to take this event, losing last week only due to the overland route taken via a duel. She held well, though and without that traffic appears to tower over these.

  • Gulfstream Thursday February 14

    POSTED Feb 14, 2013 By Unknown
    The Rainbow^6 carries on at Gulfstream, and so, too, does my attempt to hit a Pick 4 at this meeting.

     Did OK yesterday if you ignore the fact that both my "had to win" singles lost. Definitely a loser on the day, but a couple spot exacta plays kept me from pitching a shutout.

     If there were a Pick 5 carryover I'd probably take a swing, but as is I think the Pick 4 is tough enough, so I'll just target that with an all "A" play.

     Good luck to those getting involved!

  • Pacing Past Punxsutawney

    POSTED Feb 13, 2013 By Frank Cotolo

    If that rascally rodent is correct and the winter is going to surrender a few weeks, then regardless of storms still forecast to sweep through the northeast, spring is just around the corner.

    Last week, again, the New Meadowlands cancelled a program that featured a minor stakes leg and a few other tracks in the path of winter-storm Nemo cancelled programs featuring their usual lineups. But Punxsutawney Phil doesn’t care; his prediction stands—spring will be early.

    So, here comes the ides of February (Friday, Feb. 15), the midpoint of the month, with a lot of action for your consideration.

    This week again, TwinSpires pays 10-percent bonuses on winning Pick 4s at Buffalo Raceway on Wednesday nights and Woodbine on Saturday night.

    Check out the details for Woodbine here.

    (See Woodbine suggestions for Pick 4 below H2W)

    Check out the details for Buffalo here.

    Our exclusive horses-to-watch list (H2W) is published between the bonus-awarded plays at Buffalo so look for some of those horses listed on this blog and check for them in the Wednesday quartet of events for the Pick 4.

    We have added the Woodine Pick-4 events to the H2W below so you can be aware of some of our suggested contenders, all of which we hope will help you cash a larger exotic than would result from dead-on public choices. Check back here again if that information is not printed below, as we may have to add it after press time.

    Last week our H2W list was hot again, including a race that offered three horses that made up a trifecta over a thousand dollars. Here we go again, targeting profits with strong suggested contenders.

    And there’s the series at the New Meadowlands, which this week will cover Friday and Saturday.

    Series Ensue

    The Junior Trendsetter’s first leg was cancelled last Friday and redrawn for Feb. 15. Our choices settled into the second and third of three divisions so we are going to let division one go. In the second division we offer Beachfront, who has had excuses with each mile that may not be in play this week. The Somebeachsomewhere gelding may be good at three and if he begins to show it now this could be the best price you will get on him. Since Rock Icon drew into this division, he is our other choice. He was unraced at two and comes from a very good debut as a soph against similar types in this series. He has a lack of credentials but is a son of Rocknroll Hanover, making him an instant contender that has to prove is not any good, as opposed to the other way around.

    In the third split we are sticking with Fiftyshadesdarker, a legitimate morning-line choice that may not turn out to be prohibitive for wagering.

    The Exit 16W series continues this Saturday, Feb. 16, with leg two featuring a pair of divisions. The first division looks to favor closers. The problem is there are a few good closers in this race, including Linwood Player, who won at 45-1 from off the pace. We’ll take a shot with another good closer in this field, Who Dat Love. In his last mile he went up against the tough Yo Cheyenne Rocky and had to come from off the pace to get into the mile late. Yo Cheyenne Rocky easily paced away from the field but Who Dat Love was pacing fast down the center of the track to get some say in the race. He should be placed a little better this week, since there is a trailer in this field. Expect him to get away mid-pack or so and find some kind of cover to ride to pull the same move he did last week. 

    The second division features Meadowlands favorite Holdingallthecards but someone else is pulling aces in this event. Yo Cheyenne Rocky has proven he is much the best over Holdingallthecards recently. They both won a division of the Exit 16W last week but Yo Cheyenne Rocky took them gate-to-wire, while Holdingallthecards made a brush to the lead. If driver TimTetrick were to pull the same move again with Holdingallthecards, Yo Cheyenne Rocky will have something left in the pocket (he will likely go for the lead) and find room late to pull off the major upset. 

    Also watch Little Michael B. This horse is an off-the-pace type of racer. He is good to use in this race in case Holdingallthecards and Yo Cheyenne Rocky engage in a speed duel, though it is unlikely. Little Michael B will be somewhere in the mix late and can pace a first over mile if needed, but will likely find cover to ride.

    H2W Legend


    Always review the H2W legend, published weekly, to authenticate the choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track to decide how you will use the information.

    Before the horses’ names is the track, followed on the next paragraph by a date it (or they) will be racing, with the race in which they are entered (R and race number). If a + is in front of a horse’s name, it means that horse is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” means the horse is on the also-eligible list and needs a scratch to get into the race. Sometimes up to three horses are listed in the same race; it is up to you how to deal with the situation (note that in the past this situation has resulted in exacta and triples).   

    If a horse that has appeared on the list but was scratched or is not racing its second week consecutively, you will see a N/R after its name and will appear on a separate line from dated entries. And if a horse shows up at another track in its second week of being listed, it will display the plus sign as indicated above.   

    There is a margin of error, of course, so we encourage you to keep your own list along with our list to be sure our H2W is free of mistakes.   

    All members of the list need to be considered serious contenders in the races noted. Wagering on any of them is based on your own judgment of value, as well as if you wager to win, place, show or in exotics. If you have any questions about the H2W list, send them to us through the TwinSpires blog channel.    

    H2W


    Buffalo
    2/13/13, +Grayland Becky R1
    2/15/13, Just Frank R1; MS Heather M R2; +Fourstarzconfusion R3; Rocknroll Band R3; Monsier DeVie R4; Pick Up Point ae R6 ae R11; Marvelthisbliss R9; Little Haus R12; Darin R12
    2/16/13, Mysoontobe R3; In Good Hands R3; Cannae Baron R5; Card Dealer R5; King Otra R5; Rascan Steve R9; +Quiet Judy ae R13
    Sharp Lady N/R; Dudley Doright N/R    

    Cal Expo
    2/15/13, Sun On The Rocks R4; +Bewareofthisaffair R6; +Cat Call R7; +Windy City Paige R8; +Gliding Boheme R10; +Connie’s Lady R10; +Hillcrest Romeo R13
    2/16/13, Franky Provolone R2; +Heartland Express R5; Outta The Red R8; +Paul The Powerful R9; +Lucky Asset R9; Asgoodasioncewas R9; +Mister Fra R10; Double L Rumbler R13; +LS Orchardwinner R15
    Matty Rose N/R; Smiling Major N/R; Wildcats Major N/R; Barona Destiny N/R; Skyway Major N/R; Blue Boy Yankee N/R

    Fraser
    2/15/13, Fancy Ideal R1;+ Come Around Back R2; Red Star Stiletto R2; +Kg Mattattack R4; Camblazer R6; +Latino Hall R9; Rosie Lookin R10; +Kg Mattattack R11; Millbanks Sniper R11; Semper Fortis R11; +Red Star Vickers ae
    2/17/13, + Anasazzi Road R4; +Procrastinationatinpeat R5; +Rich As Promised R9;
    +Red Star Bogart N/R; Promise To Lynette N/R

    Freehold
    2/15/13, +Devine Filly
    2/16/13, +GW Gizmo R2; +Pocketfullapower R3; Move On R4; +Major Domo R11 

    Maywood
    2/15/13, +Wands Tumbleweed R2; Richard Traci R4; Speed Minister R5; +Dick Mctracy R7; +Balladeer Hanover R10; +Dontgetbyme R10; Fox Valley Libero R12
    Gram Legend N/R; Master Jeeves; N/R; Stoney Interlude N/R   

    Meadowlands
    2/15/13, +Celebrity Bombay R1; Live Jazz R3; +April Sunshine R3; +Lucky Roll R5; +Mystical Victress R6; +Dragon Princess R9; Scorpion Moon R12
    2/16/13, Oscar Oscar R8; Astor R13
    Fiveknuckleshuffle N/R; Odin Blue Chip N/R; Delightful Diva N/R    

    The Meadows
    2/15/13, Ellisarro Hanover R1; Hillcrest Bigdaddy R2; +Charles Ray R3; Anais Kicker R6; +Polo Johnny R6; +Haverford Hanover R6; Bagel Man R8; +Just Pretend A R10; Gambler’s Vacation R13; +Thisoneandonemore ae R13; Desperate Crowds ae R13
    They Call Me Moon N/R; Striking Lauren N/R; Touch Of Steel N/R; TK Diva N/R   

    Northfield
    2/15/13, +Beforethedaystarts R1; Tiffany Malone R1;Some Little Star R3; American Bandita R6; Taylorland Cyprus R9; +Katies Dreamboat R10; Carmelita’s Girl R13
    +Dawn Of New Money N/R;  Arts Shadow N/R; Katies Dreamboat N/R; Dawn Of New Money N/R; Beforethenightstarts N/R; Iknowwhatboyslike N/R

    Pompano
    2/16/13, Roo Roo Rusty R6; +Victory Connection R7: Taylor C R8; Angle Of Attack R9; Dragons Blood R9
    KM Sweet Dreams N/R; Allamerican Major N/R; Premier N/R; Whiteland Will N/R 

    Yonkers
    2/14/13, +Summer Snow R10
    2/15/13, +The Midnight Owl N R1; +Macho Lindy R2; +Chang Dynasty R7
    Mobile N/R; Hulas Z Tam N/R

    WOODBINE PICK 4
    Saturday, Feb. 16
    Race 4, Really Sexy Guy; Reibercrombie
    Race 5, Monte Cristo; Calgary Seelster; McDynamite
    Race 6, Smarty Pants; Structure Fire
    Race 7, Drain Daddy, My Man Charley

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.