The Skinny on Overweights
Similarly, an IV of greater than 1.00 denotes that a particular factor is producing more than its fair share of winners, while an IV under 1.00 means that it is producing less.
In fact, when I tested just such a proposition (race favorites with the letter “a” in their name) using my database, 579 horses qualified and the impact value was a staggering 2.78. Yet, the OBIV was only 0.81, which is right in line with expectations for race favorites as a whole (see graphic below).
|(Click on image to enlarge)|
So, with all of that out of the way, let’s get on to the fun stuff — the study itself. The first thing I’ll post is how ALL of the horses in my survey of 889 races performed, just so we have some baseline statistics:
Horses – 6,790
2012 Prioress Stakes (SAR)
2012 Whitney Stakes (SAR)
Fair Meadows Tulsa Win Factor Report
The Meadowlands Win Factor Report