Using herd dynamics in handicapping
editor's note: The Thomas Herding Technique two-year-olds patterns of motion analysis report is available at Brisnet.com and profiles many of the juveniles who competed in maiden races at Del Mar & Saratoga this summer as well as stakes races throughout North America. What follows below is a guest blog from Kerry Thomas regarding how handicappers can apply THT's insight to wagering on two-year-old races. For a sample of the THT 2yo PoMA report, click here (.pdf).
Two decades ago, when I was studying wild Mustangs in the
Bighorn Mountains, I had no idea I’d someday use what I
learned about equine communication and herd dynamics to write a handicapping
blog.
But here I am after my theories on herd dynamics and
emotional conformation, which are
actually just nature’s way, helped pick the longshot winners of the most
recent two Kentucky Derbys: Animal Kingdom and I’ll Have Another.
I'll be the first to admit I am not a handicapper, but I can
look at a group of horses in motion on a racetrack or in a pasture and tell
you which one is the leader, dominating the others and literally controlling
their motion with its presence.
My company, Thomas Herding Technique, is not strictly a
handicapping company by any means, but the handicapping information has turned out
to be a valuable byproduct of my research. Herd dynamics are real, and they can
provide a wealth of information for people looking to predict how a race will
turn out or understand why horses run in certain ways.
Brisnet.com asked me to write this blog to coincide with the launch
of the 2012 THT Two-year-olds Patterns-in-Motion Report. That page includes a detailed
sample from the report, previous comments on the aforementionedKentucky Derby winners, and this year's report itself.
The report was produced by carefully watching (and
re-watching from multiple angles!) almost two months of two-year-old races at
the top summer tracks in America. I
analyzed more than 120 races, mostly at Del Mar and Saratoga. The report runs
from mid-July through mid-September and was designed as a scouting report for
the fall two-year-old races and beyond.
Think of it as a talent evaluation of the racehorse’s mind.
A horse’s psychology--its mental aptitude--is an extremely important part of a
racehorse. It’s also one of the least appreciated and understood. One of my
favorite sayings is, “The mental capacity of the equine
controls the physical output of the athlete.”
When physical ability is even remotely equal, the mental
makeup of an athlete usually makes the difference between winners and losers.
The reads on distance aptitude in the report are among the
most practical nuggets of information for owners, horsemen, and handicappers. A
horse’s mental makeup is the single largest contributing factor to its distance
profile.
From a betting standpoint, I recommend looking for
opportunities to bet the horses I identify as having high group herd dynamics
and those with good time-in-motion skills when they are going a mile or more
around two turns, especially in big, competitive fields. Likewise, look to bet
against the horses I identify as being overloaded in individual dynamic or those
with sprinter profiles when they try to run in longer races and in bigger
fields.
Horses that profile out leaning toward the individual
dynamic tend to burn their energy up quicker in big fields, in herd chaos
traffic, and in positional/pace battles with other individual dynamic horses.
Big group dynamic horses are always higher on the herd
structure than the big individual dynamics. That is the way it is in nature,
and that is the way it plays out on the racetrack, especially as the distances
increase.
One of the great thing about using herd dynamics as part of
your handicapping equation is that no one else is looking at horses in this
way, and the odds sometimes will be very generous.
Ultimately, the pilot of the
ship is the horse’s mind, and by betting on horses with strong minds and
understanding why horses run the way they do, you’ll be putting yourself at an
advantage.
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