Showing posts with label Breeders' Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Breeders' Cup. Show all posts

  • Get to work! Breeders' Cup information overload begins now

    POSTED Oct 8, 2013 By Unknown
    Just one American Grade 1 race--the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes on Saturday, October 12, at Keeneland--stands between us and the Breeders' Cup World Championships on November 1-2 at Santa Anita Park.

     I.e., now that the horses are done preparing, it's time for horseplayers to get ready for American Thoroughbred racing's second-biggest weekend.

     There will be a lot of information presented to handicappers the next three weeks--including a fair amount by my employer, Brisnet.com--and admittedly you don't need to consume all of it or even most of it to gain an edge when wagering on the Breeders' Cup (or any race, really).

     But one collection of indispensable information for any day at the races is the Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances, which is now available for contenders of the Breeders' Cup races. Here's how it works:
    The Breeders' Cup contenders past performances appear under the "track" BREEDERS' CUP (ONLY) with the five Friday races in the "01" file and the nine Saturday races in the "02" file. The track code for these files is BCX.

     Access to each file costs the normal $3, so if you want contender PPs for all 14 races across both days, then it will cost you $6 retail (free if you're a Performance Plan member, $1 if you're a Gold member, etc). Breeders' Cup contenders data files are also available.

     Following your initial download, access to updates of these files--including the final pre-entry file released on Wednesday, October 23--are free. They will be updated daily through October 21. Then on October 23, the final BCX files will be uploaded, and this will be the last Breeders' Cup file until Monday, October 28, when the Santa Anita full-card past performances are available for November 1-2 (including program numbers, morning line, undercard races, etc.).

     Breeders' Cup contender/pre-entry Ultimate PPs will be a part of Brisnet.com's Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package, meaning if you buy contender PPs now you'll get a credit on the $25 package available next week. Also included in the package is a preview with handicapping insights and Breeders' Cup statistics, full-card Ultimate Past Performances, analysis on Europe-based runners as well as Spotlight Selections from Mark Johnson, Andy Harrington's National Turf Clocker Report, and Derek Simon's Win Factor Report. All this has a retail value of $60 but will be available for $25.

     TwinSpires.com players receive the package for free when they wager at least $100 on the Breeders' Cup (total across both days)! And another piece of information TwinSpires.com players can use is access to FREE race replays for all American tracks, including marquee Breeders' Cup prep races.

     So enough about how to spend your money with Brisnet.com, let's talk about how all this data over the next few weeks can help you make money!

     As a multi-race wager lover, I try to get a sense of two things when I handicap full cards: 1) who are the most likely winners overall, and 2) where is the Mendoza Line for each race where competitiveness drops off?

     I pretty much do that with any card I'm looking at, but where the Breeders' Cup (and a few other big events like the Kentucky Derby) is different is that I've spent the last 6 months handicapping, watching, and reviewing these horses' races. That's not the case when looking at a Thursday at Keeneland.

     I already have a pretty good idea of how good these horses are. The variables now are how they match up against those who show up, how they're training, and post position. Balancing who to single and when to go deep is an essential part of my Breeders' Cup wagering strategy--a strategy I wish I had back in 2002!

     I'd never want to get married to a horse this far out, but pre-entry time is when a young handicapper's fancy turns to love, and careful study could help avoid that third-date let down of "You smoke?!!" or "You voted for Bush twice?"

     Unlike Derby, there's not a lot of cachet involved with picking Breeders' Cup winners in advance (in part, I'm sure, because you don't get paid extra for such thoughts as you do w/ Derby), so studying now is more about all the possible winners than THE winner. The summary page of the Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances is a great cliffs notes for identifying stand outs and a range of competitiveness. Dank, for instance, looks great in the Filly & Mare Turf 

     The Brisnet.com Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package will be available on our special reports page beginning Wednesday, October 16, but contender Ultimate PPs are available now.

  • The Ultimate guide to betting entries

    POSTED Sep 27, 2013 By Unknown
    I've lamented before about the horseplayer compulsion to pick THE winner, and nothing upsets that need more than coupled entries.

    When it comes to the pari-mutuel pool, though, you don't get extra credit for saying Real Solution will win the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic rather than "the Ramsey entry." The flipside benefit to that is even if you're wrong then you can still get paid of Big Blue Kitten or Joe's Blazing Aaron win.

    The biggest reason touts don't like coupled entries is because they think it automatically hurts their value. Yes, if you like the less likely winner of a coupled entry, then you will undoubtedly get a lower price, but does that mean you're getting less value?

    In the case of the Flower Bowl where I see Laughing as the most likely winner but Tannery as the best chance for an upset, the answer is NO. In the case of the Hirsch where I see Big Blue Kitten as a far more likely winner than either of his entrymates, the answer is YES.


    Let's look at the Flower Bowl where the aforementioned Alan Goldberg-trained duo of Laughing and Tannery is 8-to-5 on the morning line. Those odds represent a 38.5% chance of either winning. If you see Laughing as a 5-to-2 choice (28.5%) then that leaves a 10% chance for Tannery, or fair odds of 9-to-1.

    Both prices are overlays to me, as I see Laughing winning this race 33% of the time for fair odds of 2-to-1 and Tannery getting the job done 20% of the time for fair odds of 4-to-1. Even if the entry is 3-to-2 then Tannery would have to be 6-to-1 individually to offer better value (Bet 100 races, the entry wins 53 times and pays $5 for $265. Alone, Tannery wins 20 times and pays $14 for $280. If she's 5-to-1 then the return is only $240).

    But I do most of my betting in the pick "N" pools, and in this case the Flower Bowl entry makes things easier on me because I like both horses and can now single. This is the opposite situation as the Hirsch where I think coupling the Ramsey horses lowers my expected value on them while increasing it dramatically on Slumber, who I like second off the year layoff.

    Individually, I could make a case for either Big Blue Kitten or Real Solution at a certain price, but I think their coupling will make them a betting interest that people feel they "have to use" in the multis, and while either winning wouldn't shock me, I just don't think the value is there when I like a horse better, anyway.

    The other race on the stakes portion of the Belmont card with coupled entries is the Kelso Handicap that includes the Lapenta-owned duo of Easter Gift and Jackson Bend. Neither would be favored individually, and getting "two for one" with these appeals to me since I don't fully trust Graydar off the bench giving weight. Souper Speedy will also be on my tickets.

    There are no coupled entries in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which is too bad from a wagering standpoint because I think coupling the Mott and Pletcher horses (Flat Out and Ron The Greek for the former and Cross Traffic, Palace Malice, and Vitoria Olimpica for the latter) would inflate the price on others, including my top pick Last Gunfighter.

    Palace Malice has actually run faster than Cross Traffic has early on occasion (e.g. the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby), but based on their last couple races I think it's fair to assume Cross Traffic will have the lead down the backstretch.

    Palace Malice, Orb, and Flat Out will try to get to the leader before Last Gunfighter does, but at 10-to-1 I'm hoping a sort of "pressers duel" develops between those three and that they go too quickly on that expansive far turn. That leaves Ron The Greek and Last Gunfighter to close, and I'll take the latter, though for the Pick 4 I'll use Flat Out as an "A" as well.

    That was a lot to go over, so let me make sure I'm clear about my picks (especially since they're not all listed above!): Royal Delta (Beldame), Souper Speedy (Kelso), Strapping Groom (Vosburgh), Santulli/Goldberg entry (Flower Bowl), Slumber (Hirsch), Last Gunfighter (JCGC), Mucho Macho Man (Awesome Again), Cleveland Indians (American League Wildcard contender).

     Want even more insight? Check out Joel Cunningham in that Breeders' Cup purple!

  • Big races, big money, big fun Arlington Million week

    POSTED Aug 14, 2013 By Unknown
    Whether it's carryovers, guaranteed pools, or contests you like (and especially if it's all of the above), Arlington Million week on TwinSpires.com offers great wagering opportunities to go along with the great racing at Arlington International Racecourse.

     Thursday features a $14,270 Pick 5 carryover and the start of both Summer Showdown and Let 8 Ride contests on TwinSpires.com. Summer Showdown features a daily contest while Let 8 Ride let's you keep playing only if you hit a win bet in the eighth race each day. Friday has sunset racing leading into the International Festival of Racing on Saturday with guaranteed pools on the all-stakes Pick 5 ($100,000) and Pick 4 ($200,000).

     Want a shot at all that money but not as familiar with racing this week at Arlington Park because of Polytrack, the Europeans, etc.? Brisnet.com has some Arlington-specific information to help you handicap. Arlington At A Glance provides a snapshot of how the track is playing as well as horsemen to watch in the races with mostly local horses.

     Regardless of distance or surface, closers are not doing well at Arlington. In main track (Polytrack) sprints (one mile or less), "E" type is the best pace style at six, seven, and eight furlongs. "P" types fare better at 1 1/16 miles. On the turf, speed or tracking speed is far better than a sustained late run.

     There does not, however, appear to be a better part of the track, as there is plenty of variety under the "best posts" column from rail, rail/inside, middle, and outside.

     The stats tell the story of what's happened at Arlington, but what about what might happen with the Euros? We won't know for sure until Saturday, but Nick Luck of Channel 4 in England joined Steve Byk on Wednesday to discuss all 14 European horses. Click here for an .mp3 of that conversation.

     Also discussing how the European horses factor in the Million day wagering, is Mark Johnson, who will provide Brisnet.com with Spotlight Selections covering the whole Million day card with a special focus on international class.

     Regardless of how Arlington plays this week, we know it's going to pay this week. If you solve the pari-mutuel puzzle, the payouts are nice. 40-to-1 on exactas, 44-to-1 on doubles, and $1,650 average on $.50 Pick 4s. TwinSpires is adding to the money as well with $6,000 guaranteed in Summer Showdown (including a potential $4,500 pot for sweeping the Million day card) and $1,500 in free money for Let 8 Ride players who make it to Saturday and Sunday.

     On personal level I'm excited because the racing at Arlington has kept me afloat in recent years thanks to the Pick 5 on Arlington Preview day in 2011 and the Pick 5 on Million day last year. With 12,168 combos available in the all-Festival-stakes Pick 4 on Saturday and a $200,000 guaranteed pool I plan to come out with guns blazing. Hopefully I'll have money left after chasing that Pick 5 carryover on Thursday, though!

     Speaking of that Thursday card, here is my ABC grid for the nine race extravaganza.

  • Points make the grade, too

    POSTED Jan 31, 2013 By Unknown
    Over on the Twitters, Chris Rossi of @O_Crunk fame is fond of chiding me for sticking up for a Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands qualifying system that now uses points rather than graded stakes earnings to determine the field if more than 20 horses enter.

     Indeed, back in March 2010 I wrote a paean to the graded stakes earnings system that dared anyone to think that a points system could be superior.

     One of the things gambling has taught me is that there's no perfect system. The martingale eventually collapses under the weight of table limits, and "angles" in horse racing (e.g. best last-out figure) eventually lose their edge in a pari-mutuel format.

    And so it goes with Derby qualifying rules, too. The new system isn't perfect but nor was the old system. Lost in all the consternation of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner no longer being guaranteed a spot in the Derby starting gate is that the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile Turf, and Juvenile Fillies Turf winners aren't either.

    That Shanghai Bobby isn't yet guaranteed a spot in the Derby is a big reason why we saw him in the Holy Bull Stakes this past weekend. Do you think Uncle Mo would have run in the Timely Writer Stakes if the points system was in place in 2010-2011?

    Another Breeders' Cup Juvenile comparison people make is to lament that the race is "worth the same as the Delta Jackpot" or "the four-horse Bob Lewis." What they don't acknowledge is that it's also no longer the most important race, as it was when it worth $2-million rather than

    I am not arguing for or against the BC Juvenile being worth 10 points to the winner, but I absolutely do think it's a positive that it and all other Breeders' Cup races are no longer automatic qualifiers and that it's no longer the most valuable race for qualifying purposes. 

    Also lost in the conversation is that spots one through 19 really don't matter. Oh, sure, those higher in the standings might attract more money from casual fans who recognize the names, but in terms of the purpose of the system, a billion points in first is the same as ten points in 19th.

     And 20th only matters if there's a horse in 21st. It's not a given that more than 20 will enter. The wailing and gnashing of teeth four months out about which horses might be left out doesn't seem to reflect the real possibility that no horse will be left out.

    Admittedly when this all began I had my doubts whether the new points system would achieve its stated goal of being more accessible to fans and help build drama on the Road to the Derby, but I'm happy to report that initial returns (albeit based mostly on anecdotal evidence) appear that I was wrong, and that the system is in fact helping drum up more interest not only in the races but also both the horses and competitions involved in the build up.

    Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!

  • Double trouble and other BC-inspired multi-race wagering observations

    POSTED Nov 6, 2012 By Unknown
    I already asked after last year's Breeders' Cup, "Is the daily double a bad bet?"
    Philosophically the answer is the same, "it depends," but when five of 13 double combinations come back less than the corresponding win parlay it's fair to ask whether targeting the rolling doubles is a good use of a player's bankroll.

     Friday was particularly frustrating for doubles players, as four of the five combos returned less than the parlay. Then on Saturday the marquee duo of Wise Dan and Fort Larned produced a $58.24 win parlay but only a $55.80 double.

     The Pick 3s on Friday did not fare much better with the first three Breeders' Cup-only sequences involving the first five Breeders' Cup races each paying less than the parlay. Beholder capped a $1,469.20 payout that was a staggering 33.5% less than the parlay involving Calidoscopio at 17.2-to-1 and Flotilla at 11.4-to-1.

     These results speak to my thought that --especially on big days--the cardinal ranking of a horse's odds is just as important as his win odds when assessing multi-race value. Calidoscopio at 17-to-1 and Flotilla at 11-to-1 look great on paper, but the former's win came in a race where many people were inclined to go deep, and the latter was one many would use with the favorite. Both led to a short field of Juvenile Fillies that was won by one of the few horses in the race who could win (even if she wasn't the favorite).

     The best value throughout Breeders' Cup appeared to come in races involving the Turf where Little Mike was probably longer than his 17.3-to-1 win odds in multi-race exotics. He capped a Pick 3 that paid nearly twice the parlay and kicked off a Pick 4 that paid 44.1% more than the parlay even though the late Pick 3 and aforementioned late double both paid less than the parlay.
    The Pick 4 remains best among Breeders' Cup wagering opportunities. Going back to 2006, it has never paid less than the corresponding parlay, and even Friday's sequence involving the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Filly & Mare Turf, and Ladies' Classic overcame short prices elsewhere to post a 5.8% premium over the parlay.

     Total handle on the two-day extravaganza dropped 9.5%, and while Hurricane Sandy and its aftermath were a big part of that, the wagering menu couldn't have helped with two Pick 4s on Friday covering five races, and of the only two Pick 4s on Saturday's 12-race card, just the late sequence used only Breeders' Cup races.

     A) The early portion of Friday's ten-race card absolutely needed a Pick 4. Yes, there was the Pick 5 on races 1-5, but that only included two Breeders' Cup races. A "normal" SoCal card has the Player's Pick 5 then an early Pick 4 on races 2-5. I don't know why that couldn't have worked this weekend.

     B) Saturday's program easily could have supported three, if not four, Pick 4 sequences. Having only two-all-BC Pick 4s on a card with nine Breeders' Cup races had to have hurt handle. The Juvenile was not part of a Pick 4, and that is definitely among the more popular races. Starting one with the Dirt Mile would have gotten a lot of action, and based on the win parlay of the four races involved would have paid at least $2,500 for $.50.

     Wagering on horse racing is pari-mutuel in nature, and understanding these types of payouts is crucial to long-term success. It's just a shame we have to wait six months to put them in practice!

  • 2012 Breeders' Cup wagering review

    POSTED Nov 4, 2012 By Unknown
    This year's Breeders' Cup showed both the pitfalls and benefits of coming to a weekend of competitive racing with a bunch of ammunition.

     On the pitfall side of things, it seems kind of silly to have hit a Pick 5 and all four Pick 4s on the weekend and lose money, but that's what happens when you take a big swing. Sometimes you connect but fly out to the warning track.

     On the benefit side, the size of the bankroll allowed me to cover plausible opinions that I otherwise would not have. E.g., making Zagora an "A" in the Filly & Mare Turf and Little Mike a "C" in the Turf. Had I been playing with my money only, I would have cut the horses I was able to use in half knowingly eliminating legitimate contenders.

     So that stew led to a loss on the weekend of 28%, which is certainly better than the shutout I pitched last year. Some key moments along the way this year:

     1. THE MARATHON: I was thrilled to get live to Atigun for an $11k Pick 5 on Friday and bitterly disappointed when Calidoscopio won as an "X" because I was live to some nice Pick 3s following Hightail's upset Juvenile win and could have kept rolling with a better Marathon opinion.

    Calidoscopio was tough to like, but he clearly had his backers given he was "only" 17-to-1, and the Marathon is absolutely a race where all the horses should have been at least a "C". I wouldn't have hit the Pick 5, and the few extra Pick 3s wouldn't have gotten me to even, anyway, but Calidoscopio was a bad "X".

     2. FRIDAY's PICK 4s: I was mainly all in on either Royal Delta or Awesome Feather winning and didn't see how anyone but Beholder, Executiveprivilege, Kauai Katie, or Spring At Last would win the Juvenile Fillies. Those opinions should have meant I hit the Pick 4s much more than just $1 each considering Flotilla, Zagora, and Grandeur were all "A" selections for me. Sure, I hedged a bit with others, and My Miss Aurelia was paying well, but this was a spot where I needed to press on the Juvenile Fillies & Ladies' Classic more than I did.

     3. GROUPIE DOLL: I hit the Pick 5 & Pick 4 with Groupie Doll, and those came back an OK $1,200 & $1,700, respectively, considering she was 4-to-5, but she was the lock of the weekend, and I needed to put more eggs in that basket. Hitting each of those multis for an extra unit would have led to a profitable weekend.

     4. WISE DAN: Similar to Groupie Doll, he was a big key for me, and did allow me to get live to "ALL" in the Classic for some pretty nice numbers, but connecting an "A+" on the day with an "A" and a solid "B" should have netted more than just one combo. Little Mike as a "C" hurt, but I can't be too disappointed because he probably would have been an "X" if playing on my own. Still, one extra unit on that Pick 4 and we're in the black.

     5. JUVENILE: One stand I did take was making Power Broker an "A" and Shanghai Bobby a "B" with the rest as Cs or Xs. No excuses here, I was just wrong. I did handicap the race that these were the only likely winners by a large margin and took a stand on Power Broker at a longer price, but the winners around this race in the Pick 4 were all nice prices and just zeroing in on both instead of mostly Power Broker would have led to some nice Pick 3s.

     Overall I'm obviously disappointed not to have won but mostly happy with my bet structuring that allowed me not to win most of what I bet back despite several horses I didn't love winning. That definitely speaks to my approach that it's not about picking THE winner but asking who can win and how to best leverage that opinion.

  • A truly championship weekend at Breeders' Cup

    POSTED Nov 3, 2012 By Unknown
    Any thought that I'll Have Another could win Horse of the Year if chaos reigned in the Breeders' Cup is long gone after the event lived up to its championships moniker with Eclipse Award-winning performances throughout the two-day, 15-race, $25.5-million extravaganza.

    Several performances were good enough to ensure not only a championship but also a unanimous championship. It would be extremely difficult to consider anyone except Groupie Doll, Royal Delta, or Shanghai Bobby for an Eclipse Award in their respective divisions. And he didn't race on Breeders' Cup day, but I'll Have Another is also a likely unanimous selection.

     Others probably clinching championships include Fort Larned (older male) and Wise Dan (turf male). That makes the loser in all this Little Mike, who won the Turf Classic, Arlington Million, and Breeders' Cup Turf but doesn't have the cache Wise Dan does.

     The Breeders' Cup Classic goes another year without its winner taking home the Horse of the Year trophy (it's been since Curlin in 2007), and the eventual Horse of the Year hasn't even run in the Classic in two of the past four years.

     Two-year-old filly will come down between Beholder and Executiveprivilege with Questing likely to win three-year-old filly. Male sprinter and turf female are up for grabs. In the latter category, Tapitsfly has two Grade 1 wins while Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Zagora only has one, but it was the big one. If Tapitsfly wins again this year that would probably shore it up for her, otherwise Zagora will probably get it.

     But overall, Breeders' Cup has to be pleased with the international collection of horses it brought together. A South American horse won the Marathon after qualifying via a Win & You're In race, Aidan O'Brien winning the Juvenile Turf, and a good contingent of international journalists covering the event.

  • Breeders' Cup Saturday--a narrower approach

    POSTED By Unknown
    Several of Steve Byk's guests this week said that Friday's card looked to be the more "formful" of the two Breeders' Cup days, and while there were two big surprises along the way--those surprises occurred in the races people probably most expected it: the Juvenile Sprint and Marathon.

     Sure, Royal Delta was the only favorite to win one of the six championships races, but Flotilla, Beholder, and Zagora hardly shocked the world. If the aforementioned guests are right, then we're in for some big prices today.

     I came into the weekend thinking Saturday was less tricky, however. That doesn't mean there won't be prices--of course there will be--but I do think horses like Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint, Wise Dan in the Mile, and Game On Dude in the Classic are going to run their races. Sometimes that's not good enough to win against World-Class competition, but they are not favorites I'm going against.

     I came into the week really wanting to dislike Game On Dude, but applying my handicapping principles shows he has an edge here. 9-to-5 is tough to get excited about, but I do like Brilliant Speed to run well, and hooking those two up in the exotics would spice things up nicely.

     I think the best chance for a price is in the Sprint where legitimate Grade 1-level horses will be going off at 10- or 20-to-1. Unfortunately, everyone else knows that, too, so a 20-to-1 doesn't necessarily play that high in multi-race wagers.

    All that said, legitimate surprises are required to really blow up a Pick 4, etc. I already mentioned Brilliant Speed as a horse I'll use. Treasure Beach is an overlay and could get lost in the Point of Entry-St. Nicholas Abbey din, so he's a high-priced "A" for me. I couldn't let Great Mills go at 20-to-1 in the Turf Sprint. He's just consistently fast enough to run with these. In the Juvenile Turf, Gervinho is undefeated, gets Bejarano, and closed like a freight train last out.

    Here is my ABC grid for today.

  • Breeders' Cup Friday

    POSTED Nov 2, 2012 By Unknown
    The notion that gambling winnings is ever "easy money" certainly didn't come from a horseplayer. If you make bank on this year's Breeders' Cup card you'll have earned it.
    That's not to say it's impossible, of course. It's a competitive card, and while most of the favorites are logical and wouldn't surprise anyone, it would surprise many if mostly favorites won. Striking that balance between using the shorter-priced horses with the possible rainmakers is what makes a successful Breeders' Cup.

     Unfortunately, I have no strong TOP PICK thoughts, though I am only two deep in the "A" column in a few races, and the longer prices in those races obviously entice.

     In race 2, #4 d'Princess gets weight and could lead these gate to wire again. Yeah, there's other speed in here, but her "E1" pace figures on Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances are the fastest in the race, so if she can control this from the get go.

     Nothing too exotic in race 4, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. The two favorites, Merit Man and Super Ninety Nine, certainly are fastest and will probably be closer in price than their morning lines of 8-to-5 and 5-to-2 suggest. Still, taking a stand two deep at this Breeders' Cup is a big help.

     Race 5 is the Breeders' Cup Marathon, and #1 Atigun is fastest, but #11 Commander is right there with him, and the scratch of Worth Repeating should help this front runner. Shipping in from Hastings should help his price.

     Race 9 is the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, and I think the top two morning line choices--#5 Royal Delta & #6 Awesome Feather--are the top two in the race. Given how deep I am in the previous races, I won't mind being live to either one of these if any big prices had come in earlier.

    Here is the ABC grid. "A" column are my top picks, which is a combo of most likely winners and anticipated value. Star Billing in the Filly and Mare Turf, for instance, is an "A" based on the 30-to-1 morning line even though there are several others in here who are more likely winners.

    "C" horses are either horses I expect to be overbet but can win (e.g. Fame And Glory in the Marathon) or horses who will be a ridiculous price and wouldn't completely shock me (e.g. Summer of Fun in the Juvenile Fillies Turf).

    Good luck to everyone!

  • Insider look at Breeders' Cup races

    POSTED Oct 31, 2012 By Unknown
    With 180 horses pre-entered and nearly as many wagering options littered across 15 races, handicapping the Breeders' Cup World Championships can be daunting, but there is help.

    In addition to all the great handicapping information Brisnet.com has available at TwinSpires.com, this blog is a tremendous resource for handicapping insights both in general and on the sport's biggest races each weekend.

    Take a look at the video below for a discussion on horses to watch at this year's Breeders' Cup.


  • Music for handicapping/driving/flying/sitting in traffic

    POSTED Oct 29, 2012 By Unknown
    I used Sunday night to take a break from handicapping and put the finishing touches on my 2012 Breeders' Cup World Championships play list, which I present to you now.

     Although websites such as Mog make the space limitations of CDs and blank tapes non existent, I still try to adhere to a 75-minute play list.

    There is no central theme to the songs other than they are tunes I enjoy. I do try to mix a few current hits (e.g. "Blow Me [One Last Kiss]" & "She's So Mean") as a way of marking the year, but mostly it's just stuff I'm into that when I play it back in 2020 will hopefully remind me of the time I hit the Breeders' Cup Pick 6.

      1. "Break Ya Neck" by Busta Rhymes
     2. "Candy's Room" by Lifter Puller
     3. "Howl" by The Gaslight Anthem
     4. "Ruby Soho" by Rancid
     5. "Adderall" by The Hold Steady
     6. "Float On" by Modest Mouse
     7. "Banditos" by The Refreshments
     8. "Love You When I'm Drunk" by Mika
     9. "The Stars" by Jukebox the Ghost
    10. "Miss Atomic Bomb" by The Killers
    11. "Sometime Around Midnight" by The Airborne Toxic Event
    12. "Superstar" by Tegan & Sara
    13. "The Show" by Lenka
    14. "Puttin On the Ritz" by Taco
    15. "Blow Me (One Last Kiss)" by Pink
    16. "Anything Goes" by Patti Lupone
    17. "She's So Mean" by Matchbox Twenty
    18. "All Kinds of Guns" by Tilly & the Wall
    19. "Programmable Soda" by Tori Amos
    20. "Chips Ahoy" by The Hold Steady

  • Only at Breeders' Cup

    POSTED Oct 25, 2012 By Unknown
    Any other day in America, if Wise Dan and Point of Entry were a part of a rolling double wager the will pay before the first leg would probably flash $6 on a $2 ticket (i.e., 2-to-1).

     Indeed, a win parlay connecting Point of Entry's Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational triumph ($3.50) with Wise Dan's Shadwell Turf Mile victory ($3.20) returned $5.60.

     So what are the chances that Point of Entry and Wise Dan win the Breeders' Cup Turf and Mile, respectively? According to William Hill it's 14-to-1. Translation: The $2 double with Wise Dan and Point of Entry is paying $30.

     Now, granted, there are a couple variables at play here: 1) William Hill is based in Europe and is likely under valuing American turf form (at least relative to the European shippers), and 2) these are the toughest fields either has faced in their careers.

     Still, the beauty and frustration of Breeders' Cup is that great horses can actually offer value and good horses get completely overlooked.

     As multiple Grade 1 winners in stylish fashion, Wise Dan and Point of Entry are both Horse of the Year candidates and are widely considered to be among the best American horses in training. Yet both will be 2-to-1 at a minimum.

    Imagine any other day of racing in the United States where either of these horses wouldn't be odds on, let alone 2-to-1! Maybe the Kentucky Derby itself where Big Brown, who in retrospect probably should have been 4-to-5, was 9-to-5 from post 20 in 2008.

     The frustrating side of this benefit is that Grade 1 winners win Grade 1 races, and good horses can come up and bite you: Court Vision comes immediately to mind. Of course that also means you get big prices on Grade 1 winners. Brilliant Speed and Pool Play, for instance, will both be at least $50 horses.

     One last thing about Wise Dan and Point of Entry. A six-race parlay on their last six wins (the former has won three straight and the latter five straight, but we'll just take their last three wins each) would return $205, but even if both won on Championships Saturday, they could key a Pick 6 that pays six figures.

  • Is handicapping Breeders' Cup more like Christmas or Hanukkah?

    POSTED Oct 23, 2012 By Unknown
    By this time tomorrow (i.e., Wednesday afternoon), we'll know which owners pre-entered their horses in what races, and preparation can begin in earnest for the Breeders' Cup World Championships November 2-3 at Santa Anita Park, and the $120-million up for grabs to bettors (assuming $150-million in handle with a blended take out of 20%).

     For many fans, preparation began long ago, of course with the watching, talking about, and re-watching of countless "prep" races during the summer and fall leading up to the 15 World Championships races, but regardless, there is something definitive about the release of pre-entries. It's a line in the sand, or as one colleague put it earlier this year regarding Arlington International Festival of Racing pre-entries, "From here on out, there are only subtractions."

     One of the key pieces of information revealed along with the pre entries is the order of races. As a bettor who highly favors multi-race wagers, race order is important to me and definitely impacts my two-day strategy.
    Some have called the night before pre-entries Christmas Eve, but I see it more like Hanukkah because each of the next eight days will bring new handicapping insights: PPs, analysis of international runners, final workouts, full-card PPs, Spotlight Selections, workout reports, etc.

     As with any big event--and particularly the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup--information overload is a legitimate concern. I'm mostly (along with Jim Steinman) in the "too much is never enough" camp, but I also subscribe to the "think long, think wrong" theory, meaning balancing all the information with what to use and how to use it is delicate.

    My experience watching the prep races as well as reading the past performances (and associated data that comes out with it like pace and speed figures) is enough to answer an important question: Who can't win?

     From there, it's a matter classifying a horse's chances and what role I expect that horse to play in my wagering based on his/her chances of winning & odds relative to that chance. 

    On one hand, I try to avoid going into handicapping these races with preconceived notions of the best horses or who might offer value, but on the other hand, I watch a lot of races, and it'd be foolish not to rely on that experience.

  • Woodbine's pre World Championships worldwide affair

    POSTED Oct 12, 2012 By Unknown

    With three weeks to go until the first day of the Breeders' Cup World Championships, it would be easy to look past this weekend if not for significant international action on Sunday at Woodbine, which will stage three Grade 1 Win & You're In races on an 11-race card that also features another graded stakes as well as a pair of Pick 4 wagers with guaranteed pools.

     To make playing this card even more alluring, Brisnet.com has teamed with Woodbine to provide players with FREE Ultimate Past Performances and Spotlight Selections from Mark Johnson (who, as the only announcer to call both the Epsom & Kentucky Derbys, knows a thing or three about international racing).
    To access those free handicapping materials, click here to visit Woodbine's Pattison Canadian International day microsite (PPs & selections are in the middle of page).
    To help players make the most of those two guaranteed Pick 4 pools, TwinSpires.com has teamed with Woodbine to offer 4-million points to players who participate. Hit either of the $.20 minimum Pick 4s and share in 1-million. Wager at least $20 and share in another 1-million points per pool if you fail to cash. Not a member? Register now and receive up to $1,000 as a sign-up bonus.

     Each sequence includes a pair of stakes races. The early Pick 4 begins with the Durham Cup-Nearctic double, and I hope to kick things off with Vertiformer, who is the only shipper in the six-horse field but who has Polytrack experience by way of an allowance victory at Arlington Park, which is competitive enough with this group. Delegation is an up-and-comer, but I'll let him beat me at a short price.

     In the Nearctic, Big Band Sound and Fire Lily both make sense as top choices, but I'll need to use Bear Tough Guy as well, who gets the rail and returns to turf and Woodbine after a nice allowance win at Presque Isle. This is a big jump in class given his previous graded stakes form, but there's a lot to like here third off the layoff.

     The E.P. Taylor begins the late Pick 4, and includes the most likely winner of the stakes program for me in Siyouma. Winner of the Group 1 Sun Chariot last out, even more impressive is that this filly was within 1 3/4 lengths of Snow Fairy, who would probably be about 2-to-5 if she were in this race. That's no slight against this group, which is nice, but the top finishers in the Prix Jean Romanet are just on another level.
    The Pattison Canadian International also features a Group 1 winner in his/her last start with Imperial Monarch shipping West for Aidan O'Brien following a win in the Grand Prix de Paris. A three-year-old beating older in a Group 1 race in his fourth career start is quite an accomplishment, and this Galileo colt clearly fits with these, but given the three-month layoff and the ship, I'm willing to take a stand at a short price. Instead let's try to other shippers in Joshua Tree (who won this race in 2010) and Reliable Man, who despite not winning in more than 13 months has been close in some good races.

  • A Classic problem

    POSTED Oct 9, 2012 By Unknown
    photo courtesy Keeneland
    Whoever is running Wise Dan's Twitter account is banging the drum loudly for respecting the horse's connections for "doing right by the horse" in deciding to send the Grade 1 winner on both dirt and turf to the Breeders' Cup Mile instead of the Classic.

     And I certainly respect that, too. If the Mile gives Wise Dan and his connections the best chance to be competitive, make the stable profitable, preserve the gelding for a six-year-old season, etc. then it is absolutely without a doubt the race he should target.

     What I don't understand about the rhetoric is that everyone seems content to concede that Wise Dan is the best horse in the United States, which I don't understand at all given that going a mile on the turf has never been the division to prove that in this country.

     Yes, turf milers have more prestige in other countries, but that makes sense given that combination includes both a classic distance AND a classic surface in places like England, France, Ireland, etc. It is neither in the United States.

    This is absolutely a down year from a superstar standpoint, and Wise Dan has flashed as much talent as any other horse, but is a Woodbine Mile, Shadwell Turf Mile, Breeders' Cup Mile Grade 1 three pack better than what Point of Entry could accomplish by winning the Breeders' Cup Turf (Man O'War, Sword Dancer, Joe Hirsch, and Breeders' Cup)?

    No.

     As a three-time Grade 1 winner Wise Dan could certainly win Horse of the Year and champion turf male with a Breeders' Cup Mile win, but that scenario also requires other horses to lose. If Point of Entry wins the Turf then Wise Dan won't even win an Eclipse Award let alone the gold one unless he goes on to win the Clark (and at that point he'd be champion older male and Horse of the Year with Point of Entry retaining champion turf male honors).

    Let's be honest, if Todd Pletcher trained Wise Dan and kept saying "he is the best horse in the country" but kept running him in one-mile turf events, the blogosphere would erupt with accusations of "kid gloves" training and insults about the conditioner's ability to train for a classic distance.

    And again, targeting the race that is best for the horse's well being and efficiency of the stable IS always the right thing to do, bar none. The problem is not with the target but the ammunition. That Wise Dan has proved himself as the best in the country without racing in the best races and/or against the best horses is folly. For now he's the best turf miler, and that's it.

  • The last big weekend

    POSTED Oct 5, 2012 By Unknown

    Three of the Breeders' Cup's biggest favorites could solidify that status with wins this weekend: Amazombie in the Sprint, Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint, and Wise Dan in the Mile.

     Twelve weeks ago, I presented a list of who I saw as the most likely winners of a Breeders' Cup race. My top pick, Redeemed in the Marathon, is retired, but Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint, Executiveprivilege in the Juvenile Fillies, and the Aidan O'Brien entry in the Turf are all still very much alive in their respective divisions, although not necessarily the most likely winners of a Breeders' Cup race at this point.

     Groupie Doll is certainly the most likely winner of not only the Filly and Mare Sprint at this point but also of any Breeders' Cup race. She's just looked invincible since spring in a division that hasn't had any consistency behind her. Turbulent Descent is obviously capable of running a big one, and Reneesgotzip will be interesting in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship against Amazombie, but otherwise another winner would be a legitimate surprise.

     Executiveprivilege is still very much a top Juvenile Fillies contender, but with the undefeated Dreaming of Julia and Rose To Gold both looming this weekend, and Kauai Katie also having won last weekend as Executiveprivilege did, it's hard for me to call the latter filly as likely a winner as others at this point, but I respect that she flashed her talent early and hasn't backed down.

     The Aidan O'Brien entry of St. Nicholas Abbey and Camelot will run in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe this weekend, but even if one were to win that race, it's tough to make a case for either being better than three-time Grade 1 winner Point of Entry considering no Arc winner has been able to win the Turf, though O'Brien did win the Turf with Arc also ran High Chaparral, who was undefeated when turning left.

    One breakthrough I do expect this weekend is among the two-year-old males. I liked Power Broker's performance in last weekend's Frontrunner, but I expect the Champagne winner to be the Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite--especially if it's Shanghai Bobby or my pick, Archwarrior.

    As you can see from the picture, I'm buying into the Archwarrior hype, and I'll keep getting win tickets on him until he loses, which could get expensive, but even if he loses on Saturday, I'd really only be out a few bucks because I can cash the Saratoga tickets.

  • Historically insignificant

    POSTED Oct 1, 2012 By Unknown
    Back in 2009 I balked at the idea of a shared Horse of the Year award between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, but given the historical insignificance of the so-called Horse of the Year campaigns in 2008, 2010, 2011, and likely 2012 I'm sort of thinking maybe a shared award wouldn't have been such a bad thing.
    I voted for Rachel Alexandra in 2009, but the season Zenyatta put together that same year dwarfs what any other winner of the award has accomplished since Curlin's first gold statue in 2007 (Curlin won it again in 2008, but that season paled to his previous year and what Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta both accomplished in 2009).

     Horses of the Year in 2010 and 2011 weren't much better. Zenyatta earned a lifetime achievement award in 2010, and Havre de Grace earned hers because someone had to win (I voted for Blame in 2010 and Cape Blanco in 2011).

     In alphabetical order here are the horses I still see with a chance at Horse of the Year and what each would need to do the rest of the year to secure my vote. In none of these cases, though, are we talking about a season that people will use as a high water mark for future Horses of the Year. 

    Awesome Feather: Needs to win Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic and defeat males in a major race (e.g. Clark or Cigar Mile) later in month. 

    Dullahan: Needs to win Jamaica and Breeders' Cup Classic. 

    Flat Out: Needs to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and another Grade 1.

    Fort Larned: Needs to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and another Grade 1.

    Frankel: Needs to win Champion Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic. A Mile win would do it as well if a multiple Grade 1 winner does not win the Classic.

    Game On Dude: Needs to win Breeders' Cup Classic.

    Groupie Doll: Needs to win Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint & Cigar Mile.

    I'll Have Another: If no one on this list does what I prescribe then I would vote I'll Have Another as Horse of the Year.

    Include Me Out: Needs to win Breeders' Cup Classic OR Ladies' Classic and then defeat males in a major race (e.g. Clark or Cigar Mile) later in month.

    My Miss Aurelia: Needs to win Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic and defeat males in a major race (e.g. Clark or Cigar Mile) later in month. 

    Point of Entry: Needs to win Breeders' Cup Turf and for a horse without multiple Grade 1 wins this year to win the Classic.

    Questing: Needs to win Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic and defeat males in a major race (e.g. Clark or Cigar Mile) later in month. 

    Ron The Greek: Needs to win Breeders' Cup Classic  

    Royal Delta: Needs to win Breeders' Cup Classic OR Ladies' Classic and then defeat males in a major race (e.g. Clark or Cigar Mile) later in month. 

    Wise Dan: Needs to win Breeders' Cup Mile AND the Clark Handicap or the Breeders' Cup Classic. A Shadwell Turf Mile-Clark double could do it as well if no one else on this list does what I say s/he needs to do.

    There is precedence for a three-year-old filly to race in the Clark following the Breeders' Cup to secure a championship, as that is the path Surfside took after losing to Spain in the 2000 Breeders' Cup Distaff.

     Obviously these scenarios are not exclusive. E.g., Chaos could reign in the Classic, My Miss Aurelia could win the Ladies' Classic & Clark, and Groupie Doll could win the Filly & Mare Sprint and Cigar Mile, etc. Then what?

    One thing I do value is completeness of a season. I know many will point to I'll Have Another's win in the Derby over Dullahan as a reason I'll Have Another should win the award over Dullahan even if the latter wins out with four Grade 1 wins, including two against older males, but multiple surfaces and distances over the course of nine months instead of four does for me. Unquestionably, though, Dullahan is the only three-year-old male with a shot of usurping I'll Have Another for an Eclipse Award.

    The only horse I see as truly controlling his own destiny is Game On Dude, who would be hard to deny as Horse of the Year if he won this year's Classic regardless of what else happened. After that, it's pretty tenuous regarding whether this year's Classic winner could be the first Horse of the Year since Curlin in 2007.

  • Time to shine, the TCI weekend preview

    POSTED Sep 28, 2012 By Unknown
    If San Pablo wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup then Joel Cunningham of PM Advertising will shine my shoes on next week's preview.
    I'll stop short of calling San Pablo the most likely winner of the East Coast's most prestigious race for older males, but he's certainly likely enough given his expected price, and even though Todd Pletcher's name is usually enough to attract attention that may not be the case in the JCGC since San Pablo is not one of the race's six Grade 1 winners.

     I'm as interested in the Jockey Club Gold Cup for who will win this race as for what it can mean to the Horse of the Year picture. As Rolly Hoyt said on Twitter, "only [a] couple [of] runners left with potentially historically significant seasons to merit [a] vote over undefeated dual classic winner" I'll Have Another.

    I disagree in the sense that I'll Have Another is the default Horse of the Year option, but I agree in the sense that people banging the Horse of the Year drum without running in Horse of the Year races puzzle me.

     For instance, even with a Breeders' Cup Classic win, I'd be hard-pressed to vote for Mucho Macho Man as Horse of the Year since that would mark his only Grade 1 win, but horses like Camelot, Dullahan, Fort Larned, Frankel, Game On Dude, Hymn Book, Ron The Greek, and Wise Dan are no brainers to me as Horse of the Year if they win out, and that last win comes in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

     Other potential Breeders' Cup Classic winners might have to do more if their connections want the gold statuette. Mucho Macho Man, for instance, could go in the Clark. If Wise Dan won the Mile then the Clark could give him the boost he needs.

    I realize I'm mostly alone not only in my zest for the Eclipse Awards but assigning "standings" to each division this far out from the end of the season (and granted, my "standings" are as loosely defined as the voting guidelines themselves), but Eclipse Awards help quantify the prestige horses run for (they also run for money).

     No Breeders' Cup Classic winner has earned Horse of the Year honors since Curlin in 2007, and this weekend's races will go a long way to define which Classic entrants can claim the gold statue with a win on November 3 at Santa Anita Park.

  • Using herd dynamics in handicapping

    POSTED Sep 27, 2012 By Unknown
    editor's note: The Thomas Herding Technique two-year-olds patterns of motion analysis report is available at Brisnet.com and profiles many of the juveniles who competed in maiden races at Del Mar & Saratoga this summer as well as stakes races throughout North America. What follows below is a guest blog from Kerry Thomas regarding how handicappers can apply THT's insight to wagering on two-year-old races. For a sample of the THT 2yo PoMA report, click here (.pdf).

    Two decades ago, when I was studying wild Mustangs in the Bighorn Mountains, I had no idea I’d someday use what I learned about equine communication and herd dynamics to write a handicapping blog.

    But here I am after my theories on herd dynamics and emotional conformation, which are actually just nature’s way, helped pick the longshot winners of the most recent two Kentucky Derbys: Animal Kingdom and I’ll Have Another.

    I'll be the first to admit I am not a handicapper, but I can look at a group of horses in motion on a racetrack or in a pasture and tell you which one is the leader, dominating the others and literally controlling their motion with its presence.

    My company, Thomas Herding Technique, is not strictly a handicapping company by any means, but the handicapping information has turned out to be a valuable byproduct of my research. Herd dynamics are real, and they can provide a wealth of information for people looking to predict how a race will turn out or understand why horses run in certain ways.

    Brisnet.com asked me to write this blog to coincide with the launch of the 2012 THT Two-year-olds Patterns-in-Motion Report. That page includes a detailed sample from the report, previous comments on the aforementionedKentucky Derby winners, and this year's report itself.
     
    The report was produced by carefully watching (and re-watching from multiple angles!) almost two months of two-year-old races at the top summer tracks in America. I analyzed more than 120 races, mostly at Del Mar and Saratoga. The report runs from mid-July through mid-September and was designed as a scouting report for the fall two-year-old races and beyond.

    Think of it as a talent evaluation of the racehorse’s mind. A horse’s psychology--its mental aptitude--is an extremely important part of a racehorse. It’s also one of the least appreciated and understood. One of my favorite sayings is, “The mental capacity of the equine controls the physical output of the athlete.”

    When physical ability is even remotely equal, the mental makeup of an athlete usually makes the difference between winners and losers.

    The reads on distance aptitude in the report are among the most practical nuggets of information for owners, horsemen, and handicappers. A horse’s mental makeup is the single largest contributing factor to its distance profile.

    From a betting standpoint, I recommend looking for opportunities to bet the horses I identify as having high group herd dynamics and those with good time-in-motion skills when they are going a mile or more around two turns, especially in big, competitive fields. Likewise, look to bet against the horses I identify as being overloaded in individual dynamic or those with sprinter profiles when they try to run in longer races and in bigger fields.

    Horses that profile out leaning toward the individual dynamic tend to burn their energy up quicker in big fields, in herd chaos traffic, and in positional/pace battles with other individual dynamic horses.

    Big group dynamic horses are always higher on the herd structure than the big individual dynamics. That is the way it is in nature, and that is the way it plays out on the racetrack, especially as the distances increase.

    One of the great thing about using herd dynamics as part of your handicapping equation is that no one else is looking at horses in this way, and the odds sometimes will be very generous.

    Ultimately, the pilot of the ship is the horse’s mind, and by betting on horses with strong minds and understanding why horses run the way they do, you’ll be putting yourself at an advantage.