• One final acceleration

    POSTED Dec 28, 2012
    You know all the cliches: It's a marathon not a sprint, gamble with your head not over it, keep your eyes on the prize, etc. I.e., don't lose focus about short-term losses. No horseplayer can expect to win every day much less every race. Even if even money shots are your game, losing 45% of the time is acceptable, and with the more exotic bets a 5%-10% strike rate could be enough.

    Still, it's impossible for me to take a look at December 31-January 1 and not take stock of my wagering for the previous year. Sure, TwinSpires.com allows you to review your wagers on a rolling basis, so you can always look at a 365-day period of wagers, but more often than not, it's December 31 (maybe because of the pending tax form) that serves as the finish line for determining whether we "beat the game."

    I plan to file a full report next week regarding my final stats. I wouldn't call myself a public handicapper, but my analysis is out there enough that I think there should be some accountability as to my actual performance so people can keep that in mind when deciding what to do with my picks (ignore them, bet them, use them, etc.).

    I will say, though, that as things stand right now I'm down on the year, but close enough that finishing in the black is very much possible, and a truly magnificent final days could make for my best year ever.

    Yet, what happens now has much more bearing on what will happen in 2013 than what happened in 2012, so even though it'd be cool to "finish ahead" there's no sense chasing.

    All that said, hopefully Wharton helps me get to where I want to be. He was my 2012 Derby pick at this time last year but hasn't raced in 13 months. Lots of question marks today (Friday, December 28) with the trainer and surface changes to go along with the layoff, but I'm high on his talent and today might be the best chance for a decent price.

    Maybe if he wins today's ninth race at Gulfstream Park I can make another future wager on him to win the Breeders' Cup Mile or Classic. Either way, it's fun to have a rooting interest in a horse--especially one who can make my year.
  • 1 comment:

    cptbigsack said...

    Could you clarify, if Wharton wins derby it could make for your best year ever correct? The way it was worded made it seem as if you had a good few days it could turn into the best year ever. Also love the honesty and accountability. I was just going over my account stats and not a profitable year for me either! Was combing through and usually find a few big bets that I shouldn't of made, but I can only chalk this year up to not following closely enough, and not betting enough. Due to time constraints, my # of bets and roi seem to have a direct correlation.

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