Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
  • TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 09/17 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts

    POSTED Sep 17, 2014
    Host Derek Simon discusses the announced closing of Suffolk Downs after 79 years of hosting thoroughbred racing, relating it to the closing of Longacres Park in 1992.

    In the I Need to Know segment, Derek explains how handicapping dogma keeps many players in the pari-mutuel dog house. And, lastly, in the Handicapping segment, he offers a potential play from Suffolk Downs (it seemed appropriate) and looks ahead to this weekend’s big races at Parx.


  • Money Miles On Tap

    POSTED Sep 3, 2014

    As September enters its first weekend, we stay in Canada for a number of Grand Circuit (GC) stakes at Mohawk. There are numerous co-stars this weekend; all in the U.S., with sires stakes championships from Indiana and Pennsylvania (there are others, such as Ohio, but selections for those are included in the horses-to-watch—H2W—list below).

    Champlain and Simcoe GC events for Sept. 6 at Mohawk will be covered on our exclusive blog, this year’s Breeders Crown Countdown, now on line. We link to it from this main blog for coverage of races through the rest of the season leading to the championship events in November, in cooperation with the Hambletonian Society and TwinSpires.

    Check out TwinSpires-Hoosier Park’s 10-percent bonus for hitting Pick 4s every night there is racing at the Indiana track. And, of course, our horses-to-watch list (H2W) offers live contenders for win, place, show and exotics from tracks across the continent.

    Of course, the H2W list rolls on through the ninth month with suggested contenders that may complement your win, place, show and exotic combos at many harness tracks across North America.

    The ‘Wellwood’ Gang

    Last week’s Metro Pace highlighted the frosh-colt pacers with their biggest purse and strongest challenge to date. This week, on Sept. 5 at Mohawk, frosh-trotting colts go in a pair of $30,000 elims to meet their greatest challenge yet, the William Wellwood Memorial (WWM) Final, next week.

    There are only six colts in the first elim but none in the sextet can be easily dismissed. They are green and relatively unpredictable but not without their strengths already displayed through the first half of the season.

    Jimmy Takter’s Uncle Lasse is bound to get a lot of win coverage and not just for the trainer’s reputation. In the Donato Hanover product’s recent race he won smoothly at Pocono after strong battles (finishing second) with Centurion Atm in the “Haughton” elim and final at the Meadowlands.

    Ron Burke’s Habitat has won three of five on a road tour, including a Champlain at Mohawk, a Tompkins at Tioga and a Kindergarten at the Meadowlands. There will be pennies between the odds of these two, leaving some breathing room for an improving member of the division, who we liked last week in a Champlain, Wheels Ah Smokin.

    He may share third-public choice status with Don’t Rush from the rail but “Wheels” won’t get the obvious interest of the two aforementioned colts. Still, Wheels has won a Kindergarten as the drop-dead favorite (two back) and he was a second choice to Habitat at the Meadowlands in another Kindergarten. Trainer Chuck Sylvester is priming this guy, hoping to mature him for his wealthy owners who can eye the 2015 Hambletonian. Wheels is a son of Muscles Yankee, the sire of Hambletonian champ Muscle Hill. Sylvester trained Muscles Yankee (his third Hambo winner) and two seasons back was close to a fourth win with Lucky Chucky. It is best to go with the sleeper here because the odds should be good and you want to be there if this is the wake-up race (his morning line is 8-1).

    Three of the seven in the second WWM elim are maidens and the best number of wins in the field is two, from the morning-line choice Cruzado Dela Noche. This is the colt that followed Uncle Lasse (elim one) while he was chasing Centurian Atm. The second morning-line choice could be the public’s—Gifted Way.

    We are interested in the rail horse, Jetpedia. He is a son of the productive frosh sire Muscle Hill and he really has done no wrong in five starts. He broke here at 3-1 in a stakes final two back, after being the choice in the elim that got him there. He came back in a Champlain last week and started slowly, spotting the field almost 11 lengths. He was fourth by only 5 ¾ lengths, to Habitat (elim one), who rested a few lengths to win by 2 ½ lengths. He is a horse to watch and in this field a horse to bet, since he has every right to improve and the public will not offer him the kinds of odds he may rightly deserve.

    Pennsylvania Polkas

    The Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) will dance from the mountains of Pocono to the populated perimeter of Philadelphia over two tracks in as many days to crown their state-bred champs in the two-and three-year-old categories. On Sept. 6 the four frosh groups meet at Pocono Downs and on Sept. 7 the sophomore crews battle at Harrah’s at Philadelphia.

    We start on Saturday, Sept. 6 at Pocono Downs with four mega-purse PASS finals for freshmen. The first is a $260,000 championship for filly pacers. Bound to dominate the win pool is one of three Ron Burke gals, Southwind Roulette. The public will be impressed by her earnings, sire and speed badge but  these strong factors do not give her an automatic victory. Indeed, we call your attention to Special Package from the rail. Tom Fanning’s daughter of Western Terror (an increasingly productive sire) has made it to the final round only winning one for six this season but her two seconds are commendable and impressive. She will offer a good win price as this field will be imbalanced in the betting due to Burke.

    Next for the same purse, filly trotters face their largest pot. Three from Takter’s team will draw wagering attention; too much, in fact. Wewould rather look for a decent price from the Burke gal, Gatka Hanover. With post 8 she may detract more bettors than the post should provoke. The Muscle Massive gal takes after her dam, Girlie Tough, in name and metaphor.

    Colt trotters bring the 2015 Hambletonian to mind as we all look for a contender able to keep up with Centurion Atm. That one’s trainer, Ake Svanstedt, is in competition with himself as he sends Lima Pride to post here. Stefan Lind’s Billy Flynn has yet to taste defeat and Shoot The Thrill has been productive. Perhaps the 8 hole again holds the overlay card with Piercewave Hanover. He could surprise the public but would be no surprise to us; he is sound, well bred and has good credentials at two.

    Lastly we have the colt pacers. Burke’s barn has the money here with Yankee Bounty, yet to lose in six tries. Our bargaining sense tells us Mcardles Lightning may be overlooked. The Steve Elliot-trained colt is fast, a good earner and the only son of Mcardle in the room. Tomy Terror and Dragon Eddy should compromise by Burke’s biggie, as well as his price.

    Sunday In Philly

    The PASS sophomore finals are the highlight on Sunday, Sept. 6 at Harrah’s Philadelphia. They begin late in the program with the $260,000 filly trot. Lifetime Pursuit is the hot horse and Designed To Be shows up to test her. All this means is a big price on Take The Money for the upset.

    The colt pace offers star material as Mcwicked tries another wire job in a prep for the Little Brown Jug. However, also prepping is the winless Limelight Beach, zero for 11 but now in the Burke barn and ready to upset on his way to the “Jug.”

    The colt trot  stars Father Patrick again and his recent upset to Datsyuk (in post 1 here) could bring his price up a bit. It may be a bit too much, making Father Patrick a price we have not seen since he began racing at two.

    Finally, the filly pace presents eight-for-eight Sandbetweenurtoes and she still looks like the utter best and the lock of the card. 

    Hoosier Heroes

    Indiana Sires Stakes finals ensue at Hoosier Park on the Sept. 6 program. The $75,000 contests are all for two-and three-year-olds. Frosh colt trotters have 10 in the hunt. Airman Batten will be the choice and rightfully so. In seven tries he has six wins, with five-for-six Steal N Gas the closest in records. But the Big Stick Lindy colt, Stickem Buck, cannot be dismissed and should be the best price of the trio.

    On the frosh-filly trotting side there is a contentious affair. The earnings are close and the records are similar. Golden Big Stick has been in every mix thus far and may be the one ready to pop a fourth win for the season.

    In the frosh-filly pace we eliminate the four maidens and take a shot with the 10 horse, Blues Queen. The post may give her some price weight and in the mile may not be a detriment at all. As for the frosh colt pacers, Toni’s Affection should simply have this in the bag for a small payoff.

    Soph-filly trotters have to contend with the perfect Andi’s Alana, having eight wins in as many starts on the Hoosier scene. The filly pacers, though tightly matched, may offer value with Metro Shopping.

    Soph-colt trotters offer a shot for value from Double A Cash Hall, daringly from post 8, while the glamour-boy pacers will continue to be dominated by the all-powerful Always B Miki, who has scourged the Hoosier scene since his rousing second in the Meadowlands Pace.

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Batavia
    9/5/14, Peter Pumpkineater R7; Studio City R9
    9/6/14, King William R3

    Freehold
    9/4/14, Nicetoseeya R2
    9/5/14, Bella’s Spunkin R3; Big Sky Angelina R5; Fancy Pants Sandy R9
    9/6/14, +Kings Legend R5; Mr Thomson R5; Moosehead Jack R6

    Hoosier
    9/5/14, Red Scooter R1; Light Up The Sky R3; Battle Gun R7; Matt The Bruiser R7; Rocket Fuel R9; Allthatgltrsisgold R11; Star City Hero R14

    Maywood
    9/4/14, Jetting Around R2; Buttered Noodles ae R4
    9/5/14, +Impersonal R2; Delightful Dot R3; R Dunshine R4; Rip N Rock R8; Donald Himself R12

    Meadows
    9/5/14, Incredible Dragon R10

    Northfield—Ohio Sires Stakes
    9/5/14, Student Of Life R1; Dellou R2; Lofty Chip R5; Crown Time Keeper R6; Honey B R8; Friskie Til Dawn R9; Emilene’s Future R11; Suite Feelin R12

    Ocean
    9/6/14, +Money Paige R6
    9/7/14, +Winmando R1

    Plainridge
    9/6/14, Painting The Town R2; +Somerset Minibob R4

    Philadelphia
    9/7/14, Gallie Bythe Beach R7

    Scioto
    9/4/14, +Whowhohoosier R2
    9/6/14, Pro Deuce R4; +Tempster Hanover R6; Can’tcutthatchip R12

    Tioga
    9/6/14, Flashbacks R6
    9/7/14, Goose Creek R1; Ten Yard Penalty R11

    Vernon
    9/4/14, +Canbec Jewell Sun R4
    9/5/14, Fleetwood Hall R1

    Yonkers
    9/6/14, Lawgiver Hanover R5; Big Jer R7
    9/8/14, Caviart Key R6; Montana Pablo A R6
     
    Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition.      
  • Mohawk’s stampede of stakes elims take the forefront

    POSTED Aug 20, 2014
    Although some other divisions hosting stakes this weekend, the focus for the industry will be upon two-year-olds battling for berths in the lucrative Metro Pace for pacing colts and She’s A Great Lady for pacing fillies at Mohawk, along with elims for soph-filly trotters with two Casual Breeze splits on Aug. 22, while on Saturday the program includes two Metro elims, three elims for the She’s A Great Lady stakes (a Metro for the glamour gals) and two elims for the older pacers’ Canadian Pacing Derby.

    Our exclusive blog, this year’s Breeders Crown Countdown, is now on line. We link to it from this main blog for coverage of races through the rest of the season leading to the championship events in November, in cooperation with the Hambletonian Society and TwinSpires.

    Check out TwinSpires-Hoosier Park’s 10-percent bonus for hitting Pick 4s every night there is racing at the Indiana track. And, of course, our horses-to-watch list (H2W) offers live contenders for win, place, show and exotics from tracks across the continent.

    Ladies Of The Trot

    The $202,529 Casual Breeze, once contested in June to work as a prep for the now defunct Elegant Image trot, attracts the sport’s top soph-filly trotters in a two-split contest on the Friday, Aug. 22 card at Mohawk.

    One division of the total 18 fillies has a field with all the top fillies, while the other contains the second-tier competition. The opening division is the second-tier showdown, featuring the dead-heat winners of the Duenna, contested Hambletonian weekend, My Inspiration and Donatella Hanover. The Canadians also have a hometown favorite in White Becomes Her, making this an interesting wagering affair.

    White Becomes Her, because of her experience over this oval, is the horse to beat. She’s a front-trotting type but in her last two starts she has been caught by fillies who draft in the pocket. Seeing as that is her only visible weakness, the logical choice in this race would be a front-type who prefers to stalk the pace. Enter My Inspiration.

    The Trond Smedshammer filly has hit the board in six of her seven starts in her career, with every race having her positioned near the front. This Chocolatier filly has really improved into her sophomore year and should be sharpening with every mile. She’ll be in the right place to sweep by White Becomes Her and give us a nice price.

    Ever since trainer Jimmy Takter fit the shoes on Lifetime Pursuit, she has been unstoppable. A perfect trip in the Hambletonian Oaks made her an undeniable winner, then she follows her 1:50.4 world mark with another world record, this one of 1:51.3 at the Meadows, putting her in the same club as fillies Check Me Out and Designed To Be, who will compete for redemption against Lifetime Pursuit.

    All in all, there’s no point in trying to beat the best filly in the division. We certainly liked her at two, even though we never cashed on her. But she is currently at the peak of her form, which evidently is unstoppable.


    The ‘Metro’ Gang

    It’s time for two-year-old colt pacers to face the big-buck challenge as the Metro Pace elims decide the field for the biggest frosh event of the season. Next week at Mohawk The Metro Pace Final puts the pressure on the top frosh colt pacers, with the top three finishers carrying the weight of early favoritism for 2015 stakes for glamour boys. Two Metro elims, each worth $40,000, are on the program Aug. 23 at Mohawk.

    In round one, some of the top sires of the season present sons and the surprise Sportswriter colt, Sports Bettor, who debuted last week against the Grand Circuit types and won at 69-1, will get more action than that this time around. What he probably won’t get, though, is the trip that afforded him the path late to win that Nassagaweya split. Here, he has to contend with three colts that weren’t in that affair and a few that lost to him also look like trouble.

    First there’s To Daddy Go, the Bob McIntosh son of Ponder that won the “Waterloo” on Grand River’s smaller track and came right back on the big oval to lose by a smidgeon after a tough first panel. He may wallow through this mile and be worth a low price. Look out, however, for Asap Hanover, who may be offering a greater price than last week. He was the favorite when Sports Bettor exploded the tote board and he is out for revenge after an awful trip.

    Four wins in four starts with no challengers will make Artspeak the humungous choice in round two. There is little doubt that Artspeak will be winging out of the gate to take the top and attempt a total command of the mile. That attempt may give The Wayfaring Man two easy turns, sucking along in the catbird seat and raring to give Artspeak a late taste of losing. That is the best scenario for a price, assuming “Man” will offer a far-and-away decent price as the second or, hopefully, third choice.

    Great Ladies

    There are frosh-pacing fillies everywhere, demanding three eliminations for the She’s A Great Lady at Mohawk on Aug. 23. A total of 25 fillies have entered but only 10 will compete for the near-half-a-million dollar prize.

    An interesting detail to watch in these races is if the gals who competed in the Eternal Camnation last week have any sort of advantage. Seeing as 15 of the 25 entered for this race competed in the “Camnations,” it might make for a good betting angle.

    The opening split features one winner of a Camnation, Shakai Hanover, and other Camnation-gals including The Show Returns, Bedroomconfessions, Strut My Stuff and Palette Tina. The public will likely piggy-back Bedroomconfessions, even though she was second, off her strong performance in the opening Camnation split. We’ll take our chances with another Camnation-ist, one who was certainly fast, but was disqualified off an odd pylon violation.

    Palette Tina appeared green out of the gate in her division, sprinting to the quarter in :27.3 to then sit a pocket and gamely slide up the inside to finish second. Unfortunately, she was also green when veering to the inside lane, as she had a wheel inside two pylons, forcing her disqualification. We see her improving with maturity, as she has always been a weird filly, especially in her second start, when she kicked home in :25.4.

    First, the Johansson stable produced a talented youngster named Western Vintage, who went on to win his Metro elim but failed to hold off Boomboom Ballykeel in the final. Johansson returns with a filly that put in a phenomenal performance in the second division of the Camnation, Jk Shesalady.

    On a night where speed was dominant, she came from 9 lengths off the lead and entered another gear to begin sprinting her way towards the lead. She cleared command at the top of the stretch and continued to draw away, winning in 1:53.4. Here is a special filly, and likely the one to dominate this division. There’s no beating her, at least in this elimination.

    The final elim features Happy Becky, winner of the Whenuwishuponastar Series and the favorite in her Camnation split last week. She sprinted to try and catch Bedroomconfessions and Shakai Hanover but had too much ground to cover. While the majority will be flying back to support her, we’ll join the minority in a nice filly that was caught behind Jk Shesalady in her Camnation elim: Bin N Heaven.

    Firstly, Bin N Heaven was fourth to Jk Shesalady, Cowgirl Tough and Cashaway, none of which are here. Secondly, she sat the pocket to Wicked Little Minx, who went from first to eighth by 29 lengths within a quarter-of-a-mile. Having to navigate around her, it’s ridiculous to think she could catch Jk Shesalady, so her fourth-place effort is positive. She’ll likely be put towards the front again, except on this occasion, she could claim victory. 

    Sweet Lou Time

    It’s Sweet Lou time again, this episode being the first of two $40,000 elims of the Canadian Pacing Derby, also on the Mohawk card Aug. 23. Really, how can we create a scenario to wager against him? He seems tireless and makes all of his foes look powerless. Maybe if we found out trainer Ron Burke made “Lou” walk to Canada from the states we could take a deeper look at the same old joes he has been beating throughout the season.

    The second elim gives six who have been in the line of Lou’s fire different chances to get into the winner’s circle. The closest to Lou recently has been Bettors Edge, who comes from post 2 here and may try to lead the charge from start to finish. But we have to look again at a bargain—Captaintreacherous.

    The local fans will be shouting for State Treasurer, who got a good spot to be second to Lou two back. But he isn’t the horse Captaintreacherous is in any capacity, no less the kind of horse Captaintreacherous is becoming as he knocks around the neighborhood of stalwart elders. There is a contingent of anti-Captaintreacherous folk here and they will be backing “State” and Thinking Out Loud while singing “Oh Canada.” This should make for a juicy win pool for Captaintreacherous, even with only six going here. A strong cover trip or a seat behind Bettors Edge if that one leaves could get the “Captain” home on top.

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Batavia
    8/22/14, Red Star Fiona R1; Canbec Jewell Sun R1; +Scorpius R11; Pleasing Form R11
    8/23/14, +Blown Away ae R2; Sbm Innocentoutlaw R4; Aberarder Smitty R11

    Hoosier
    8/21/14, Earls Little Dude R10; Bridges Beauty R14

    Maywood
    8/21/14, Breanna Official ae R2; Just A Minute ae R2; +Wilfully Scootereva R7; Online Learning R8

    Meadows
    8/22/14, Tuckered Out ae R5; Bluenose Gal R12; Upfront Billy Boy R12

    Ocean
    8/21/14, +Whitesville Ted R2
    8/22/14, Rules Little Man R3

    Pocono
    8/22/14, Annuity R4; +Spirit Of Desire R8; Art For Arts Sake R13

    Running Aces
    8/23/14, Windsun T Bird R7; +Co-op Hanover R8

    Saratoga
    8/23/14, +Duel In The Sun R11; Bo’s So Hot R12; Titan De Vie R12
     
    Scarborough
    8/22/14, Creditable Winner R2; Hobsons Choice R6

    Scioto
    8/21/14, Whowhohoosier R2
    8/22/14, Lookingforadventure R4; +Chip Of Art R12

    Tioga
    8/23/14, +Professorsdapapers R4

    Yonkers
    8/21/14, +Natural Habitat R4
    8/22/14, +Insane In Spain R9
    8/23/14, Man He Can Scoot R2, Bubble Boy R3

    Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition.      
  • Winning at the Races

    POSTED Aug 8, 2014
    When I first started writing about horse racing and, in particular, betting, I had one goal in mind: to inform players as to the real percentages of the game. I didn’t do this to dissuade folks from wagering — I believed then and still believe today that playing the races is among the most thrilling and rewarding forms of gambling there is. I simply wanted bettors to understand what they were up against from a parimutuel standpoint. 

    The sport of kings is replete with flimflam men and con artists looking to peddle their new millennium snake oil to an unsuspecting public — the selection method that never loses, the betting system that the 40-year-old living in his parents’ basement insists will make one rich, the dude wearing a trench coat motioning to me in the racetrack parking lot… actually, I’m not sure what that guy was selling, but you get my point.

    The common thread connecting all of these crazy claims is that little to no work is required on the part of the target audience. Simply shell out some dough — a small pittance given what you’ll win — and, soon, you’ll be having yacht parties with Donald Trump and referring to yourself in the third person.

    The legendary George “Pittsburg Phil” Smith said it best: “Playing the races appears to be the one business in which men believe they can succeed without special study, special talent, or special exertion.”

    That said, consistently winning at the races is possible — if one is willing to be realistic about what that entails… and what it doesn’t:

    * You do not have to be an expert in body language to profit at the track. I can’t tell a lead change from a diaper change — and I don’t try to. Just as a restaurant featuring Indian cuisine can be successful, so too can one specializing in Italian fare. But how wise would it be for either restaurant to suddenly start offering wonton soup and fortune cookies? Stick with what you know gives you an edge.

    * Don’t believe those who claim that X doesn’t work or Y is the only solution to the parimutuel puzzle. Very few bettors keep the kind of records that would enable them to make legitimate assessments on anything outside of the weather. Always remember the words of Pittsburg Phil: “A man who plays the races successfully must have opinions of his own and the strength to stick to them no matter what he hears.” 

    * Keep in mind that being a contrarian, in and of itself, will not make you a winner at the track. In fact, the contrarian approach to picking winners is picking losers, which, in a parimutuel system, has limited utility (unless the losers you select are fancied by the betting public). This applies to information as well. While it may be contrarian to bet horses lacking speed, it is probably a mistake, given the predictive value of speed figures. Perhaps a more reasonable approach would be to look for instances in which popular metrics (such as speed figures) fail — or even succeed — at a greater-than-normal rate.

    * Don’t buy into the notion that the betting crowd, as a whole, is comprised of dunderheads and ignoramuses. Do buy into the notion that those telling you this are dunderheads and ignoramuses. There have been numerous studies, encompassing a variety of speculative endeavors, and the conclusion is nearly always the same: for the most part, gambling markets are efficient. Yes, you can beat the races, but you are only going to do so by exploiting those rare instances in which the market gets it wrong and/or by having information that the market doesn’t have ready access to. Simple angles and methods — first-time Lasix, best last-race speed rating, etc. — won’t cut it.

    * Related to the above, try to find unique data or ways to use widely disseminated data in unique ways. I’ve had some of my greatest success with angles/methods that utilize my pace figures, which makes perfect sense given that my pace figures are dissimilar to any of the commercially available figs.

    * Don’t let your ego run off with you. We can all learn something from other players (even if it’s only that what they do doesn’t work).
  • Mid-season Features Around The Ovals

    POSTED Aug 6, 2014
    It’s the sport’s mid-season as we roll through August and though the Meadowlands’ season is done for now (returns in November), wild harness battles ensue and the star equines take to the road at the Grand Circuit tracks, aiming for Breeders Crown (BC) glory this fall. Our Countdown Breeders Crown blog will fire up next week and feature analysis of races for the divisions’ top horses on both gaits; races that have significant wagering value. (Photo on right by Ray Cotolo)

    This week, aside from some high-profile names (most horses from the Hambletonian day stakes parade will be taking the week off), the action is local, per se. Hoosier Park is packed with Indiana Sires Stakes (INSS) for two- and three-year-olds on Friday and Saturday. We will cover the $75,000 finals. As well, the Dan Patch Invitational brings some strong ole pacers to the gate on Aug. 8.

    Charlottetown Drivers Park launches trials for its premier event, the Gold Cup and Saucer. The final is on Aug. 16 (watch for analysis here next Friday).

    More traditional Currer & Ives go postward at the Meadows over the weekend, also, and some familiar faces are at hand.

    At Tioga on Aug. 10, glamour-boy pacing-colt rivals Hes Watching and Jk Endofanera battle in the Empire Breeders Championship and a filly version is also on hand.

    Our horses-to-watch list (H2W) presents suggested contenders—valuable additions to your win, place and show bets and exotics through North America. See our weekly list of “lookouts” below. 

    Weekdays, check out the TwinSpires-Hoosier perks for players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per dollar bet. Click here for details. Every Thursday night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. Click here for details. And the ongoing 10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the meet. Click here for details.

    Patchwork Foes

    The $250,000 Dan Patch Invitational reunites a few US Pacing Championship characters including the brilliant and dominant Sweet Lou and the only horse to defeat him this season, Dancin Yankee. This is their first meeting since May, when Sweet Lou finished third in the Van Rose at Pocono Downs.

    Ron Burke, Sweet Lou’s trainer, told Ken Weingartner (USTA correspondent) that he is nervous because Dancin Yankee “is racing as well as any [horse] in the country … [he] is super sharp, career sharp, too.”
    Dancin Yankee is on a six-race winning streak, though he has not consistently faced the caliber of foes that has “Lou.”

    A field of nine is the cast of the event at Hoosier Park on Friday, Aug. 8. It’s the 21st installment of Hoosier’s signature event and it highlights the 14-race program complimented by INSS finals.

    Others in the field are the familiar Bettor’s Edge, Heston Blue Chip, Thinking Out Loud and State Treasurer. Filling out the field are Night Pro (INSS champ), Carol’s Comet and Our Lucky Chip.

    Though it makes sense to emphasize a threat to Lou, he has raced with immaculate precision that we witnessed in person at last week’s Hambletonian program. Watching him take command and rolling smoothly with driver Ron Pierce going along for the ride (no urging at all) was as amazing a performance as I have seen yet—and I have seen some of the greats.

    Trust we are being objective, for we were not fans of Lou when he was anointed at three, and we were proven correct, as he failed to live up to the hype of his frosh antics. At four he was good here and there and we had him a few times at fair prices. But at five he is phenomenal, with a wondrous rhythm and marvelous muscle. Pocono’s three turns have stumped a few great horses here and there and Dancin Yankee had his day against Lou in May. It won’t happen this time; Sweet Lou may break every speed record Hoosier will ever record.

    It’s exotic time in the betting department, then. Kick out the locals—they have no business in this against Lou and the rest—and be wary of Heston Blue Chip for second. He may offer some value for the exotics, even though he was magnificent last week on Hambo day. Linda Toscano’s New York-bred champ could nose Dancin Yankee for second and pump up an exacta price.

    A $25,000 guaranteed Dan Patch superfecta pool will be available as part of the USTA Strategic Wagering Program. The wager will have a minimum bet of 10 cents and is available through the cooperative efforts of the USTA, Hoosier and the Indiana Standardbred Association. A $10,000 guaranteed Pick-3 is featured with races seven through nine

    Indiana-bred Battles Abound

    The INSS frosh-filly trot leads the $75,000-each finals on the Aug. 8 program. Though she has post 9, Golden Big Stick is a prime example why her sire, Big Stick Lindy, is on the best average earnings list. She is fast and she is a great earner, the best in this field.

    Next, INSS frosh-colt trotters hit the track. Two sons of Swan For All, a promising sire thus far, lead the pack. One of them, Airman Batten, should not be denied this championship.
    Frosh-colt pacers are next on the INSS docket. Rockin Image colts make up half the field. His progeny has been prolific but Toni’s Affection, a son of Always A Virgin, appears to have a slight edge on the division.

    Finally, the filly pacers take the stage and two Rockin Image fillies could take the top two spots, with a Panpacificflight gal in the triple. For Rockin Image, we have Heyhey Mahanah and Image Of Felicia. The other is Feetonthedashboard, who has the best win record of the season in the division.

    Saturday, Aug. 9, the three-year-olds are in the INSS spotlight.

    Soph-filly trotters begin the INSS quartet of finals, each worth $75,000. Streaking Andi’s Alana looks for her seventh win in a row and is bound to own the bulk of win pool. A threat just aside her is Hudson Jesse. She has been consistent and always in the mix this year.

    Soph-filly pacers are next on the bill, with an evenly matched field of 10. Candy’s A Virgin may have a slight edge, with a strong bankroll from only seven races, almost half of them wins.

    The INSS soph-colt trotters seem to be dominated by Double A Cash Hall, with the best earnings, good connections and five of his six starts victories. An outside threat could come from Sonnyforall, who is four for seven in the win column and raring to take on better to prove he is class material. He should be a price in the attempt, too.

    Glamour-boy pacers from the program line up for the INSS and the card’s Satuday nightcap. The mighty Always B Miki is here and coming from his second to Hes Watching in the Meadowlands Pace he will be a prohibitive favorite and rightfully so. He is a good key here, among colts that are nowhere near his prowess.

    Trials By Jousting

    A dozen pacers have been entered for the 2014 edition of the Gold Cup and Saucer at Charlottetown Driving Park. The field of 12 is the fastest field ever assembled. Of the horses entered into the two trials, eight have lifetime marks under 1:50.

    Trial 1 will be raced this Saturday night, Aug. 9. Trainer Ron Burke aims to defend his title with the fastest and richest horse in the field, Aracashe Hanover. The Carl Jamieson-trained millionaire Up The Credit (2011 of the North America Cup winner) is the only entrant from last year’s final. Trainer Rene Allard has two entries in the first trial. Bigtown Hero is new to his stable. Island Jett is Allard’s other entry in Trial 1. Allard obtained “Jett” two starts ago and shows two consecutive miles in 1:53.3 over half-mile tracks. Astor is the only Maritime horse, also in Trial 1. Jason Hughes trains. Trainer Chris Oakes is new to the event. In Trial 1 he sends out Shock It To Em on Saturday.

    Oakes’ other pacer goes in Trial 2 on Monday, Aug. 11. That one is Scott Rocks. Corey Johnson’s first entry in the event goes in the second trial. He is Wazzup Wazzup. Trainer Patrick Shepherd sends Duke Did It and Take It Back Terry is the second Burke starter. The third Allard entry is Mickey Hanover and the last entry is Mach Wheel for trainer Shane Arsenault.

    “Aracache” will take all the money in Trial 1. Up The Credit will get action, even having post. The real danger, of course, is Bigtown Hero, who will be all out for his first appearance under the tutelage of Allard. 

    Trial 2 may be a better wagering event, with no star names on board. Mach Wheel could be the pace commander here, taking it from start to finish with his inherited Mach Three speed.

    Empire Breeders Strike Back


    Soph pacers battle for a quarter-million dollars in purse monies at Tioga Downs on Sunday afternoon, Aug. 10. The finals of the Empire Breeders Classic (EBC) are the featured events on the sires stakes-filled card.

    The filly final appears to be a match race between elimination winners Major Dancer and Precocious Beauty. Major Dancer won her elim after scratching lame from a sires stakes at Yonkers to follow it up with a workout the next day. She is a talented filly and should definitely not be discounted from the race.

    Precocious Beauty has been in need of redemption. World champion at two, she pulled first over and managed to hold off Delightful Dragon to win her elim in 1:51.4. She is vulnerable, and will likely be involved in the early pace.

    While Delightful Dragon was ½ -length shy of picking her post, the Three Diamonds winner has steadily regained her form. Second to speedy mare Clear View Hanover at the Meadowlands two starts back, she tackled her age group from post 7 at Yonkers to win from first over in 1:54.1. She draws a post that will likely put her in the center of the action, allowing her to take cover when needed and sweep by horses at a price.

    In the colt final, the majority feels it will be an exhibition by He’s Watching. Winner of the Meadowlands Pace, he’s certainly speedy and can capitalize when given a trip. Over a sloppy track in his elim he was only ½ -length better than Jk Endofanera in 1:51.1 (note that he possibly interfered with Jk Endofanera but was cleared by the judges).

    Even though he has lost to He’s Watching twice, Jk Endofanera will likely be given a cover trip, seeing as he cannot grind first over as was proven in the first-half-speedy “Pace” final. There will certainly be speed in the race, with Winds Of Change possessing agility but it will be Jk Endofanera’s redemption and he’ll likely be a great price since many jumped off his bandwagon, hopping into the fan group of He’s Watching.


    Picture Perfect

    Fresh off of standardbred racing’s marquee event, the soph-trotting division returns to the stakes spotlight on Friday, Aug.8, at the Meadows, where two divisions of the $120,000 Currier & Ives are set to go.

    With only six males in both splits, it is not surprising to see that these are two-horse races, so to speak. The opening division will be a match between Amped Up Hanover and Wheelsandthelegman. Amped Up Hanover won a division of the Townsend Ackerman (TA) on Hambletonian day, doing so on the front in 1:54.2. Wheelsandthelegman also raced in a split of the TA but faltered after a powerful shot to the top from the outside. Our preference is Wheelsandthelegman in this match-up, as his good draw and raw speed should put him in front at the finish.

    The other division is between Il Sogno Dream and Skates N Plates, with Southwind Spirit playing the role of wild card. Il Sogno Dream was fourth in the Hambletonian, a classy effort but perhaps exaggerated. The Hambo was a fast mile, with third place being 11 lengths off the stretch-battling Trixton and Nuncio. Il Sogno Dream happened to be in the right place at the right time and closed into third but was soon passed by Harper Blue Chip, who also got a nice trip. With all this in mind, this division sets up to be a nice one to beat the chalk

    Skates N Plates will obviously be the second choice, due to the lack of form in the field. His break in his last start can be ignored, since he has no other record of such blemish. He also won a division of the Arden Downs at the Meadows going wire to wire. At the right price, he can certainly upset

    Southwind Spirit is the interesting entrant. Off since his third in the Valley Victory nine months ago at the Meadowlands, he has two qualifiers, with his first being on July of this year. He galloped through the stretch but went 1:57. Next out, he set easy fractions on the lead to finish in 1:55.3. Off a long layoff, he might need a start, but could make the exotics pay well.

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Batavia
    8/8/14, +Larrys Dream R5; +Whipmeintoshape R8; +Carson City Road R10; +Western Heart R10
    8/9/14, Blown Away R2

    Meadows
    8/8/14, +Sarcastic Man R10

    Philadelphia
    8/7/14, +Kingofthejungle R5; Tellitlikeitis R9; Lyonssomewhere R11

    Running Aces
    8/9/14, Flukie Flight R3

    Saratoga
    8/7/14, +Still Electric R3
    8/8/14, Lauderdale R7

    Scarborough
    8/8/14, Trotting Trice R2; Jitterbug Hanover R6

    Scioto
    8/9/14, +QB Killa R1

    Tioga
    8/8/14, +Cathy’s Princess R4

    Yonkers
    8/7, Natural Habitat R6
    8/8/14, +Outa My Head R3; +Charisma Hanover R12

    Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition.      
  • Money Management & Bet Optimization

    POSTED Jul 26, 2014
    On my latest podcast, Dave Schwartz and I had a spirited debate about betting strategies and/or money management (depending on one’s perspective).

    Dave made the argument that, while a betting strategy can alter one’s ROI, it cannot turn a positive expectancy into a negative one — or vice-versa. To prove the former, he used the example of a 30 percent win bettor who averages an $8 mutuel.

    “Let’s say you are a positive expectancy player — that is, you have the best of it,” The Horse Handicapping Authority said on my July 23 show. “And your records indicate that you get a 30 percent hit rate and your average mutuel is $8. … $2.40 is your average return ($8 x 0.3 = $2.40) for a $2 bet.

    “So, suppose you parlay that? Every time it hits you parlay back. Your hit rate becomes 30 percent of 30 percent — nine percent. … Now, what do you get back? … You bet $2 you get back $8 — four times what you started with. So, if you bet it back again, you get back $32. So, if we multiply nine percent times $32 what we get is $2.88 for a [$2] net.

    “So, by parlaying we’ve actually changed the advantage,” Dave concluded.

    Well, kinda-sorta… but more on that later.

    While the esteemed Mr. Schwartz was talking betting strategy, I was opining that a horseplayer can — and often does — eliminate his advantage by wagering outside of his core competencies. In other words, if a player has an established Kelly edge of, say, five percent betting to win, it cannot be assumed that he will retain that edge betting an exacta or a trifecta or some other type of non-win wager.

    “My take on folks who are trying to increase their advantage is that they’re not going to [try to] increase it using their area of expertise,” I argued.

    Referring to Dave’s example of the 30 percent win bettor with the 20 percent ROI, I said: “The average player, in my mind, is not going to look at that and think, ‘well, I’m going to parlay this.’

    “… They’re going to bet a pick-3. And betting a pick-3 and betting a parlay — even though they’re often compared to show you what a great deal a pick-3 is — is not the same thing, because you start betting multiple horses.

    “[Likewise], somebody that thinks, ‘you know what? $8, a 20 percent ROI — that’s nothing! I don’t want it,” I continued. “… So, they’re gonna play the exacta, they’re gonna play the trifecta … now, you don’t know what your advantage is. … And my argument to you … is that you can take a positive and turn it into a negative. And that’s exactly how you do it, by playing other areas; basically, not using your core competencies in a proper manner.”

    At that point, Dave said I was “wrong” and a bloody battle ensued, killing thousands and literally changing the landscape of Colorado (where I live) and Nevada (where Dave resides)… OK, not really, but we did have a great discussion about wagering strategies and money management techniques, which I want to further expound upon here.

    First of all, it needs to be pointed out that “money management” means different things to different people. I have often noted that many horseplayers seem to confuse it with handicapping. To me, “I knew I should have used that horse” is not a money management issue — it is a handicapping issue. That said I was surprised that, given our combined experience playing the races, Dave and I could not agree on a definition.

    Secondly, there is a lot of subtlety involved in betting strategies, as demonstrated by Dave’s straight win bet vs. parlay example. Dave noted that “by parlaying, we’ve actually changed the advantage,” which, on the surface, is true.

    However, that “truth” rests on the supposition that:

    A) ROI and “advantage” are one and the same (I don’t think they are which I will discuss later).

    B) The parlay is viewed as one bet, which it definitely is not. In fact, a two-horse parlay consists of 1-2 bets — one, if the first horse loses; and two (with a higher stake), if the first horse wins. It is the higher stake, or bet amount, that leads to the higher ROI.

    To demonstrate what I mean, take a peek at the following table:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Notice that when we parlay, we are actually investing more money. Hence, the theoretical 44 percent ROI that Dave alluded to equates to just 5.9 percent in practice. (For the financially savvy among you, this is similar to the difference one sees when comparing a simple interest rate to a compound interest rate.)

    Given this, it should come as no surprise that, using a similar bankroll, a player adept at win betting — which is what the 30 percent wins, 20% ROI tells us — is much better off betting an equal amount to win on all of her selections. Whereas a parlay returns just $576 on $544 bet (a profit of $32), straight win betting yields $652 on that same $544 (a profit of $108).

    Again, I realize the distinction here is subtle. I’m sure many will argue that the parlay is a single bet and, therefore, more profitable. But if we accept that, it’s only fair to look at other staking methods. And, despite its flaws, the Kelly Criterion is still numero uno when it comes to optimizing one’s bankroll:

    OPTIMAL AMOUNT OF BANKROLL BET = WIN RATE – LOSS RATE / AVG. WINNING ODDS

    Not surprisingly, when we plug in our straight wagering and parlay averages from above, we get decidedly different Kelly advantages:

    Straight Win Bets: 0.30 – 0.70 / 3 (odds) = 6.7 percent.
    Parlay Bets: 0.09 – 0.81 / 15 (odds) = 3.6 percent.

    Once more, these differing percentages point to the delicate balance between risk and reward present in all forms of gambling and the nuance involved in optimizing one’s results.

    And that’s something I know Dave and I can agree on.