Pace Figures Bring Holiday Cheer
'Twas the night before Christmas, and
all through the house
No one would speak to me, not even my
spouse.
As a means to erase my holiday debts.
Aah, yes,
nothing says “Happy Holidays” like a winning trifecta or superfecta and this
week I want to talk about how I cashed on just such a wager and how readers
might follow my lead and do the same.
I don’t think
too many players will argue with me when I say that turf races featuring a
preponderance of dirt runners can be amongst the trickiest races to handicap — especially
when such events are comprised of cheaper runners with less-than-regal
pedigrees.
Take, for
example, the fifth race at Turf Paradise on Dec. 21, 2012. The about one mile
grass affair was restricted to three-year-old fillies eligible to be claimed
for $6,250 ($8,000 if they were foaled in the state of Arizona, which makes
sense given the prestige accorded to Arizona-breds all over the world).
The 10 entrants
had started a total of 138 times, yet just 20 of those starts were on the turf and
only 11-Dover Crossing had ever won on the green. Four of the fillies had never
even set foot on grass.
Now, a lot of
handicappers like to look at breeding in such instances and the Brisnet past
performances, like the Daily Racing
Form PP’s, offer pedigree surface ratings — numbers that can be used to assess a
horse’s innate preference for a specific type of track surface (dirt, synthetic or turf). In
the fifth race at Turf Paradise on Dec. 21, those ratings looked like this (the
figure in parenthesis is the difference between the horse’s turf rating and its
dirt rating; the higher the better):
111 – Dover Crossing (+8)
111 – Dover Crossing (+8)
108 – Pardon My Excess (+1)
107 – Mystery Channel (+6)
104* – Anne’s Seven Cats (no change)
104 – Candy and Nuts (-1)
103? – Princess Kiha (-3)
99 – Cantaffordanother (+1)
96 – Drawing Breath (-2)
96? – Foolish Temper (-2)
95 – Harley Hart (+2)
?= Small
sample size.
*= Very small
sample size.
Here’s the
problem with using pedigree ratings in a race such as this, though: it’s a
$6,250-$8,000 claiming affair! If pedigree was such a great indicator of
talent, the horse wouldn’t be running for a tag.
So, I ignore the breeding and look for something else — mainly, the ability to fly home, or at least run comparatively fast, late.
So, I ignore the breeding and look for something else — mainly, the ability to fly home, or at least run comparatively fast, late.
My reasoning
is this: Generally speaking, turf events favor horses that have a decent late
kick, whereas dirt races are far more kind to early runners. Hence, any horse
that exhibited a reasonable late turn of foot on the dirt — and when I’m doing
my analysis I try to ignore races run over a turf or synthetic surface so that I’m
comparing apples to apples — would seem to have a decent shot of improving on the
lawn.
I use my own
pace figures, specifically my Pace Profile numbers, to determine this, but
players can utilize the Brisnet Late Pace (LP) figures as well. Doing this, one
finds that the top LP figures in the race above were as follows:
89 – Drawing Breath (#6)
89 – Pardon My Excess (#9)
87 – Foolish Temper (#3)
85 – Anne's Seven Cats (#4)
85 – Cantaffordanother (#8)
82 – Candy and Nuts (#10)
Naturally,
all the other rules of (good) handicapping apply. Foolish Temper had top-notch
connections and was coming off an impressive win on the dirt; I liked her on
top along with Drawing Breath, who I thought offered good value at 16-1. 5-Princess
Kiha and 11-Dover Crossing were my secondary contenders — the former due to her
strong recent form and the latter due to her past efforts over the surface.
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| (Click on image to enlarge) |
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| (Click on image to enlarge) |
Weekend Win Factor Plays
Click HERE
to get suggested wagers for various tracks on Saturday (12/22) and Sunday
(12/23).
18 comments:
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