• Pace Figures Bring Holiday Cheer

    POSTED Dec 21, 2012
    'Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house
    No one would speak to me, not even my spouse.
    For I spent the day on TwinSpires.com, searching for bets
    As a means to erase my holiday debts.

    Aah, yes, nothing says “Happy Holidays” like a winning trifecta or superfecta and this week I want to talk about how I cashed on just such a wager and how readers might follow my lead and do the same.

    I don’t think too many players will argue with me when I say that turf races featuring a preponderance of dirt runners can be amongst the trickiest races to handicap — especially when such events are comprised of cheaper runners with less-than-regal pedigrees.

    Take, for example, the fifth race at Turf Paradise on Dec. 21, 2012. The about one mile grass affair was restricted to three-year-old fillies eligible to be claimed for $6,250 ($8,000 if they were foaled in the state of Arizona, which makes sense given the prestige accorded to Arizona-breds all over the world).

    The 10 entrants had started a total of 138 times, yet just 20 of those starts were on the turf and only 11-Dover Crossing had ever won on the green. Four of the fillies had never even set foot on grass.

    Now, a lot of handicappers like to look at breeding in such instances and the Brisnet past performances, like the Daily Racing Form PP’s, offer pedigree surface ratings — numbers that can be used to assess a horse’s innate preference for a specific type of track surface (dirt, synthetic or turf). In the fifth race at Turf Paradise on Dec. 21, those ratings looked like this (the figure in parenthesis is the difference between the horse’s turf rating and its dirt rating; the higher the better):
     
    111 – Dover Crossing (+8)
    108 – Pardon My Excess (+1)
    107 – Mystery Channel (+6)
    104* – Anne’s Seven Cats (no change)
    104 – Candy and Nuts (-1)
    103? – Princess Kiha (-3)
    99 – Cantaffordanother (+1)
    96 – Drawing Breath (-2)
    96? – Foolish Temper (-2)
    95 – Harley Hart (+2)

    ?= Small sample size.
    *= Very small sample size.

    Here’s the problem with using pedigree ratings in a race such as this, though: it’s a $6,250-$8,000 claiming affair! If pedigree was such a great indicator of talent, the horse wouldn’t be running for a tag.
     

    So, I ignore the breeding and look for something else — mainly, the ability to fly home, or at least run comparatively fast, late.

    My reasoning is this: Generally speaking, turf events favor horses that have a decent late kick, whereas dirt races are far more kind to early runners. Hence, any horse that exhibited a reasonable late turn of foot on the dirt — and when I’m doing my analysis I try to ignore races run over a turf or synthetic surface so that I’m comparing apples to apples — would seem to have a decent shot of improving on the lawn.

    I use my own pace figures, specifically my Pace Profile numbers, to determine this, but players can utilize the Brisnet Late Pace (LP) figures as well. Doing this, one finds that the top LP figures in the race above were as follows:

    89 – Drawing Breath (#6)
    89 – Pardon My Excess (#9)
    87 – Foolish Temper (#3)
    85 – Anne's Seven Cats (#4)
    85 – Cantaffordanother (#8)
    82 – Candy and Nuts (#10)

    Naturally, all the other rules of (good) handicapping apply. Foolish Temper had top-notch connections and was coming off an impressive win on the dirt; I liked her on top along with Drawing Breath, who I thought offered good value at 16-1. 5-Princess Kiha and 11-Dover Crossing were my secondary contenders — the former due to her strong recent form and the latter due to her past efforts over the surface.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    The race went just like it was supposed to:

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Weekend Win Factor Plays

    Click HERE to get suggested wagers for various tracks on Saturday (12/22) and Sunday (12/23).
  • 26 comments:

    Unknown said...

    I simply wanted to write down an instantaneous word to convey because of you for those wonderful tips and ideas you are exhibiting upon this website.
    FIFA World Cup 2018 Venues List
    Fifa World Cup 2018 Schedule pdf

    Mckelvey Broomfield said...

    The primary thing that you should know is that a payday advance can be precisely what you require however it is not generally the best decision in each circumstance. cash advance online chicago

    FIFA Live Stream Online said...

    very Soccer lovers want to watch fifa live streams 2018 free of cost, because everyone not paid the payment other sites like Sling TV, Fubo TV, Hotstar, Hulu TV & Fire TV.
    https://bit.ly/2kZFlgB
    https://watchfifawc.com/fifa-world-cup-broadcasting-rights/

    Watch FIFA Live Stream said...

    Now discuss Egypt key forward played Mohamed Salah out in this mega event due to shoulder injury in UCL Final match. Every Liverpool FC fans disappoint from injury during 1st half, many analysis told Liverpool defeat that’s why. One Egypt lawyer put the case against “Real Madrid” defender on this serious injury.
    https://fifawc2018s.com/2018-fifa-world-cup-broadcasting-rights/
    https://fifawc2018s.com/fifa-world-cup-opening-ceremony/
    https://fifawc2018s.com/portugal-vs-spain-live-stream-online/
    https://fifawc2018s.com/fifa-world-cup-highlights/

    Digital Marketing Company said...

    Great your site. When i view your article and view your site have good. I sincerely thank you for the things you have done, sure your blog will help more people. Sincerely thanks

    Tekniko Global said...

    mobile app development in delhi - Tekniko Global is a Best Android, Mobile App Development services agency in Delhi. We are expertise in iOS, Android, Hybrid Apps Development team. Get a free quotes Mobile App Development Company in Noida, Delhi Today.

    Michel hardy said...

    An fascinating discussion is value comment. I think that it is best to write extra on this matter, it won’t be a taboo topic however generally people are not enough to talk on such topics. To the next. Cheers
    Commercial Moving Chevy Chase MD

    admin said...

    google 840
    google 841
    google 842
    google 843
    google 844

    Vacancysquare said...

    Thanks a lot for sharing this post with us. Vacancysquare is No.1 Educational website in India, list of schemes of the government of India, educational Blog, trending news in world, Trending News, Education website in India, Education, Technology, Business, top trending news in India, government jobs in India, upcoming Govt jobs 2022, government yojana, and government scheme in India.

    This is very helpful content for me thank you again so much sir.

    Thanks again!

    Kane Wild said...

    Hi there, I check your blog like every week. Your story-telling style is awesome, keep it up really its great article. Where else may just anyone get that type of info in such an ideal method of writing? I’ve a presentation subsequent week, and I am on the look for such information.
    Juicers price in pakistan

    suonerie gratis said...

    Di solito scarico suonerie per il mio telefono da suonerie-mp3-gratis.com

    berry456 said...

    Tamilnadu 8th Std Model Question Paper Tamilnadu 8th Standard Tamil Question Paper 2024, 6th Standard Model Question Paper Tamilnadu English Medium Kalvisolai 8th Model Question Paper With Answers 8th Standard TN STD 8 Question Paper 2024 Tamil Medium Model Question Paper Tamilnadu 8th Standard Question Paper 2024, Tamilnadu 8th Std Model Question Paper Tamilnadu 8th Standard Tamil Question Paper 2024, 6th Standard Model Question Paper Tamilnadu English Medium Kalvisolai 8th Model Question Paper With Answers 8th Standard Tamil Medium Model Question Paper Tamilnadu 8th Standard Question Paper 2024,

    Anonymous said...

    Greet Everyone You Meet .

    Mobile App Development Company in Mumbai said...

    Thank for very nice this sharing.

    Online Form said...

    Great job on this blog article! The information provided was both informative and engaging, and I learned a lot from reading it. I appreciated the way you structured the content and made it easy to follow. The writing style was also clear and concise, which made it easy to understand even the more complex topics. Additionally, the use of visuals and examples helped to illustrate the concepts and make the article more engaging. Overall, this was a great read and I look forward to reading more content from this blog in the future. Keep up the good work! United States

    The veganist said...

    If you’re looking for a quick, delicious, and healthy meal, vegan tacos are a great option. This plant-based twist on a classic dish is versatile, customizable, and perfect for any occasion.

    Vegan vibes said...

    One popular brand of lip care products is Labello, but is Labello cruelty-free?

    Vegan line said...

    Ready for a deliciously fun twist on the classic cherry Bakewell flavor? Whip up this Cherry Bakewell Cocktail in no time and enjoy a sweet, satisfying sip with a dash of nostalgia.

    The veganist said...

    Being a vegan, I've learned a lot about the subject and have done extensive research. If not, don't worry; here is some recent information about Orbit Gum Vegan as proof.

    valentina said...

    Alexandria Traffic LawyerThe most informative post.Keep sharing the post.

    RA said...

    CapCut MOD APK is a free all-in-one video editing tool using which you can make very good video edits.
    This particular app offers a ton of outstanding advanced features such as keyframe animation, smooth slow-motion and more.

    Teslin said...

    Good content to read. keep posting more good blogs. Human Trafficking Lawyer

    App Developers in Bangalore said...

    Thank you very nice sharing.

    aditya said...

    Digital Edge's SEO services in Noida are a game-changer! Their expertise and strategic approach have significantly boosted my website's visibility and rankings. I highly recommend them for anyone seeking top-notch digital marketing solutions.
    Seo Services in noida

    johny said...

    Criminal attorneys in Fairfax have excellent communication skills. They make difficult legal topics understandable for their clients. Additionally, they effectively argue their cases in court by speaking in a way that jurors and judges can understand.Divorcio Abogado Fairfax


    Andrew said...

    What Court Handles Divorce in New York , divorce cases are handled exclusively by the Supreme Court. This is the state's trial court with broad jurisdiction, empowered to tackle all aspects of your divorce, including property division, child custody, and spousal support. Don't navigate this alone - contact us for a stress-free consultation.

    Post a Comment