• Using Past Odds to Predict Present Results

    POSTED Mar 15, 2013

    I have often made the point that when it comes to predicting the outcome of a horse race, the betting public is among the very best. Sure, one can find individuals that outperform the pari-mutuel pools just as one can find Wall Street investors that regularly beat the market averages, but anybody who thinks that the crowd’s opinion is unimportant is likely to be scraping for bus fare after the last race.

    That said, how many bettors use the odds to their full advantage? While even the most unsophisticated punter can look at the tote board and get an idea as to the main contention in today’s race, how many players use the odds from past races as a guide to a horse’s current speed, form and class?

    Trust me, this is no trivial consideration.

    As proof, look at how recent betting favorites in the Kentucky Derby, unquestionably the biggest race for three-year-olds in America, performed in their next three starts:

    (Click on image to enlarge)


    Granted, a 3.4 percent return on investment (ROI) is not likely to get one invited to yacht parties with the rich and famous, but it’s not bad considering that the only criterion was that the horse be favored in Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

    What’s more, this kind of analysis can be extended to other types of races and is especially helpful in events and at venues where information is scarce.

    Take, for example, races from across the pond.

    In the 16.40 at Cheltenham Racecourse on Tuesday, March 12 (Champion Day of the famed Cheltenham Festival), 19 runners faced the starter for the Grade 2 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle over two miles and four furlongs.

    Generally, a race such as this would be a tough nut for an American bloke like me to crack. However, look at how nicely the contenders come to the fore when we rank the purse values they competed for last time (a crude measurement of class), as well as the odds they offered in those contests:

    (Click on image to enlarge)


    From the chart above, it’s readily apparent that Quevega is the dominant horse in the field — an assessment made even more obvious by her odds on March 12 (she was the 8-11 favorite). Although she’d been on the sidelines for nearly a year, a quick look at the past performances revealed that the vacation would not be a problem, as the nine-year-old mare hadn’t lost since May 24, 2009 and, in fact, had triumphed numerous times off of similar layoffs in the past.

    It is equally apparent that Sirene D’ainay looks like a prime upset candidate. She was 5-2 in a race featuring a $106,000 purse last time — and she won that affair by six lengths.

    Quevega and Sirene D’ainay ran 1-2 in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle. The $2 exacta returned $59.60.

    Now, don’t get me wrong: I’m not advocating that one water down handicapping to a simple comparison of purse values (i.e. class) and odds, but I do think that such comparisons can help bettors get a better handle on the true contention in a race, particularly when other techniques are unavailable.

    FREE Weekend Win Factor Reports
  • 7 comments:

    Heath Trivett said...

    nice take! i love it! An important part in a kitchen remodel is getting custom cabinets.

    Lilla Wilkinson said...

    Hey! Have the best “write my essay” help on , which is among the Top 10 writing help picks on the internet in 2021. Collab with a professional essay writer from https://essaysrescue.com/myassignmenthelp-review/ instructing them to prepare a fully original, plagiarism-free essay that meets all the instructions that you received from your tutor.

    Dragon said...

    Thank you for sharing this great article. 888b hopes you will have many more articles for everyone to read.

    Gujarat 5th Class Textbook said...

    Gujarat 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th Class Textbook 2023 are Distributed Through Cooperative Institutions All over Gujarat. Vendors are Linked to the Distribution of Textbooks with Distributors in each District. Gujarat 5th Class Textbook Gujarat Board 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th Class Book 2023 are easily Accessible to All Students of This System, This will assist in improving the Quality of Teaching by Understanding the Type of Difficulties Faced by Students of Class V in Different Subjects i.e; Reading Comprehension, Mathematics and Environmental Studies. This is an effort to Provide Feedback for Planning interventions at Various Levels of School Education.

    Anonymous said...

    I really like this blog smash karts, it shares a lot of information that I want to know in many areas. I hope there will be more interesting things in the future.

    koe61831 said...

    I remember that I used to usually not be able to communicate well with people at all, due to self-deprecation, but I read Calmerri's blog about self depricate, and now I don’t suffer from it anymore, and my friends are happy

    Tommy543 said...

    Therefore, we took care of being fully ready and informed about what demands are set for you to get a high write my essay in US assessment and be able to arrange your text properly to put all the necessary info regarding the examined topic.

    Post a Comment