Worth the Weight? Wise Dan Takes on Six at Saratoga
And let’s not forget George E. Smith.
Yet two pounds to a 1,000-pound horse is like actor Richard Gere running around with a gerbil on his back (it obviously escaped… from its cage).
Win Rate: 20.2%
However, when I added the stipulation that the horse above be the morning-line favorite, the numbers did an about-face:
Win Rate: 43.9%
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It is noteworthy that top jock Joel Rosario takes over the riding duties from Brian Hernandez on the son of First Samurai. As was the case in the Firecracker, in which Lea pressed slow fractions while running wide around both turns (a double no-no), the key to upsetting “Dan” in the Fourstardave is the pace.
If Lea can control the tempo, I believe he is fast enough late to hold off Wise Dan down the lane… and set off the inevitable complaining about unfair weight assignments.
Note: Watch the place and/or show pools. If Wise Dan controls 75% or more of the money wagered, I'd suggest betting Lea in those pools.