Worth the Weight? Wise Dan Takes on Six at Saratoga
Numerous
studies have shown that a horse’s impost has next to nothing to do with its
performance in today’s race… yet, some of the greatest horsemen, handicappers and
handicapping services consider it to be of paramount importance.
Both
the “The Sheets” and “Thoro-Graph” factor weight into their
speed ratings and professional gambler Bill Benter includes a horse’s impost in
his mathematical algorithms as well.
And let’s not forget George E. Smith.
And let’s not forget George E. Smith.
In
“Racing Maxims and Methods of ‘Pittsburg Phil’,” Smith, aka “Pittsburg Phil,” said
this: “In handicaps, the top weights are at a disadvantage always, unless they
are very high-class horses.”
Of
course, in that same book, Smith also noted that “condition has more to do with
a horse winning or losing a race than the weight it carries.”
This
begs the question: Which is it? Does weight matter or is it meaningless?
Well,
I already confessed to being befuddled, so I don’t have a definitive answer,
but I do have some opinions on the subject:
1) In the grand scheme
of things and considering the state of handicap racing in the US (which is
practically non-existent), I don’t think weight has much impact on the results
of races.
2) Although the impost
itself probably doesn’t mean much, the perception
that it can “stop a freight train” is still very real among many in the
industry. Hence, considering weight and weight changes makes sense to me.
Yeah,
yeah, yeah, I know: on the surface, these points seem contradictive, but
they’re really not.
We’ve
all heard of the “placebo effect” — real improvement in one’s health or well-being
based on the belief that a particular medication is working, even when it is
not — right? Well, weight on/off is kind of the racing equivalent of this.
Remember
when Blind Luck edged out Havre de Grace in the 2012 Delaware Handicap? Larry
Jones, trainer of Havre de Grace, felt that weight played a major role in his
filly’s defeat.
“Tell
me two pounds does not make a difference,” the veteran conditioner lamented after
the race. “[Blind Luck] won six Grade 1's versus our one and we are the
highweight. That makes a lot of sense. I probably should not have run.”
Yet two pounds to a 1,000-pound horse is like actor Richard Gere running around with a gerbil on his back (it obviously escaped… from its cage).
Yet two pounds to a 1,000-pound horse is like actor Richard Gere running around with a gerbil on his back (it obviously escaped… from its cage).
Still,
if a great trainer like Larry Jones believes that two pounds can make a
difference in the outcome of a horse race isn’t it wise to play along? After
all, Jones said after the Del. ‘Cap that he “probably should not have run.”
Isn’t it logical to conclude that some trainers don’t run a fit and ready horse if they believe the assigned weight
is too high or, conversely, they do
run if they think the weights are in their favor? The stats seem to bear this
out.
I
took a look at horses that were asked to spot their rivals at least five pounds
and the results were not encouraging:
Horses: 262
Horses: 262
Winners:
53
Win Rate: 20.2%
Return: $321.50
Win Rate: 20.2%
Return: $321.50
ROI:
-38.65%
IV:
1.40
OBIV:
0.84
However, when I added the stipulation that the horse above be the morning-line favorite, the numbers did an about-face:
Horses: 66
Winners: 29
Win Rate: 43.9%
Return: $128.40
However, when I added the stipulation that the horse above be the morning-line favorite, the numbers did an about-face:
Horses: 66
Winners: 29
Win Rate: 43.9%
Return: $128.40
OBIV:
0.85
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| (Click on image to enlarge) |
Which
brings us to this weekend’s Grade II Fourstardave Handicap, in which defending
Horse of the Year Wise Dan will be conceding 11-14 pounds to his six
(scheduled) rivals.
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| (Click on image to enlarge) |
 |
| (Click on image to enlarge) |
Will
the spread in weights be enough to trip up the champ?
Personally,
I don’t think so. However, I am intrigued — once again — by Lea, a horse that I
think is immensely talented and one that got a questionable ride the last time
he faced Wise Dan in the Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs.
It is noteworthy that top jock Joel Rosario takes over the riding duties from Brian Hernandez on the son of First Samurai. As was the case in the Firecracker, in which Lea pressed slow fractions while running wide around both turns (a double no-no), the key to upsetting “Dan” in the Fourstardave is the pace.
If Lea can control the tempo, I believe he is fast enough late to hold off Wise Dan down the lane… and set off the inevitable complaining about unfair weight assignments.
It is noteworthy that top jock Joel Rosario takes over the riding duties from Brian Hernandez on the son of First Samurai. As was the case in the Firecracker, in which Lea pressed slow fractions while running wide around both turns (a double no-no), the key to upsetting “Dan” in the Fourstardave is the pace.
If Lea can control the tempo, I believe he is fast enough late to hold off Wise Dan down the lane… and set off the inevitable complaining about unfair weight assignments.
Note: Watch the place and/or show pools. If Wise Dan controls 75% or more of the money wagered, I'd suggest betting Lea in those pools.
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