BC Contenders & Pretenders
After notching two Grade I wins as a three-year-old — not to mention a strong showing in last year’s Filly & Mare Turf — the daughter of Scat Daddy has been blanked (minus a win by DQ) so far at age four. Yet, if she makes one sustained bid, which seems to be Sadler’s game plan, I think Lady of Shamrock could light up the tote board.
I kind of like 10-GREAT HOT.
I know, I know — the daughter of former BC Sprint champ Orientate wins about as often as the Washington Generals, but, frankly, this field is no great shakes and I was impressed by Great Hot’s last race. What’s more, her workouts at Santa Anita have been outstanding.
2-BOOK REVIEW, 7-SUMMER APPLAUSE and 9-JUDY THE BEAUTY figure as well.
Now, on to traditional handicapping: Is there any horse that ran better than the son of Mucho Uno did in the Awesome Again? I don’t think so. Not only did Mucho Macho Man record a 113 Brisnet speed figure, but he also earned a -3 LSR in that race. What’s more, his two starts at Santa Anita are arguably the best of his career.
I’m not optimistic.
For some reason, despite a 1-for-9 record and a 0.66 odds-based impact value (see below) with horses coming off a 60-day layoff or greater in the BC, Baffert has chosen the “rested” route with many of his charges this year. In addition to Game On Dude, Fed Biz, Book Review and New Year’s Day have all been on the sidelines for two months or more.
But it gets worse for the “Dude:”
Derek Simon's 2013 Breeders' Cup Betting Guide