BC Contenders & Pretenders
POSTED Nov 1, 2013
By
Derek Simon
BC Marathon
Top Contender(s)
8-BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS went way too fast early — a -12
early speed ration (ESR) — in his last race and it came back to bite him, as he
finished a distant fifth as the 3-5 favorite in a minor stakes affair at
Fresno. However, Blueskiesnrainbows’ previous try in the RM Hinds was quite
good, earning the colt a -5 ESR and a -3 LSR (late speed ration). What’s more,
he’s bred for longer distances (son of English Channel) and he’s shown he can
rate.
Top Pretender(s)
Much will be made of the fact that the morning-line
favorite, 4-EVER RIDER, is following the same path that Caildscopo did when he
won the Marathon last year: same final prep, same long layoff, etc.
The comparison is faulty.
Caildscopo had won more than a half a million dollars
over the course of his distinguished career and, in fact, was well-regarded
when he captured the Group 2 General Belgrano in his homeland of Argentina
prior to mowing down 12 overmatched rivals in last year’s Breeders’ Cup
Marathon. By contrast, Ever Rider has earned less than $76K in his career to
date and was all-out — at 28-1, no less — to annex the 2013 edition of the General
Belgrano by a diminishing neck.
Juvenile Turf
Top Contender(s)
Although his front-running style gives me pause, it’s
hard not to be impressed with 5-BOBBY’S KITTEN. Named after the late, great
Bobby Frankel, Bobby’s Kitten recorded a 97 Brisnet speed figure and a 0 LSR in
winning the Grade III Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont Park last time.
I also like 9-WILSHIRE BOULEVARD quite a bit. Considered
by many to be Aidan O’Brien’s “B” entry (O’Brien also trains Giovanni Boldini),
Wilshire Boulevard has the benefit of experience and should appreciate the
added distance.
Top Pretender(s)
7-AOTEAROA won a fairly mundane edition of the Zuma Beach
at Santa Anita in his latest effort and doesn’t meet today’s LSR par (0) — the
kiss of death in turf routes.
Dirt Mile
Top Contender(s)
After dispatching four overwhelmed opponents in the
Prairie Meadows Handicap (as the 1-9 favorite), 2-GOLDEN TICKET spent the next
couple of months on the shelf before returning in the Grade I Awesome Again
Stakes. In that race, the son of former BC Sprint champion Speightstown made a
move entering the lane and flattened out late. I suspect he’ll be tighter today
and a flat mile should hit him right between the eyes.
Trainer Doug O’Neill’s preparation of Santa Anita Derby
winner 12-GOLDENCENTS has been nothing short of brilliant. On the Derby trail,
the Into Mischief colt was a handful, as he often appeared almost rank in the
early going of his races. Since a brief freshening, however, Goldencents has
been a different horse. Last time, in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, he
finished in the money after trailing by more than 1 ¼ lengths at the first call
for the first time in his career. I suspect he’ll be closer to the pace in the
Dirt Mile and he’s already proven that he can get the distance.
Lastly, I think the speedy 1-TAPTOWNE and the
lightly-raced 8-HOLY LUTE will also run big.
Top Pretender(s)
10-VERRAZANO is unquestionably talented, but he needs
things to go his own way; if they don’t — as was the case in the Kentucky Derby
and Travers — he tends to fall apart. I could live with that if the Todd
Pletcher trainee promised to be a price. But as the 3-1 morning-line choice,
I’ll pass.
Juvenile Fillies
Turf
Top Contender(s)
I think the Euros are leaps and bounds better than the
Americans in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. 6-VORDA, 2-AL THAKHIRA and 8-CHRISELLAM
all have a great chance in my opinion. Among the American contingent, I think
7-STREET SAILING and 13-SKY PAINTER are best.
Top Pretender(s)
There’s a lot of buzz centering on 14-MY CONQUESTADORY
and I suspect the bettors who play her will get stung. There’s no question she
has a ton of ability, but I’m not fond of the surface switch — even though the Alcibiades
featured turf-like fractions — and I’m even less thrilled with My
Conquestadory’s post position.
Distaff
Top Contender(s)
Those expecting a pace meltdown initiated by 4-ROYAL
DELTA and 5-BEHOLDER should look at the riders of those two horses. The former
will be piloted by the Mike Smith, while the latter gets the services of Gary
Stevens — two veteran reinsmen who, I believe, are way too experienced to get
sucked into a suicidal pace duel. That being the case, it comes down to price
as to which horse will get my money. I think Royal Delta is fair at 2-1 or
better, whereas Beholder looks fair at 5-2 or greater.
Top Pretender(s)
I hesitate to put 6-PRINCESS OF SYLMAR in this category
because she’s certainly not a “pretender” from an ability standpoint. However,
I do have concerns about: a) her late running style and b) the fact that’s
she’s in this race at all, given that the original plan was to put her on the
shelf for the rest of the year after the Beldame. I suspect that Todd Pletcher
entered Princess of Sylmar in this spot to put her in the running for Horse of
the Year… and that doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence.
SATURDAY (11/02/13)
Juvenile Fillies
Top Contender(s)
1-ARTEMIS AGROTERA recorded a 95 Brisnet speed figure and
a -1 LSR in the Frizette and needs only to adapt to what promises to be a brisk
pace to win.
10-SHE’S A TIGER went insanely fast early (-14 ESR) in
her two-turn debut, the 1 1/16-mile Chandelier Stakes, yet showed grit and
determination in dropping a narrow decision to Secret Compass. Her workouts
have been stellar and Jeff Bonde has an outstanding 2.36 Expected Performance Rating
(EPR) in BC routes.
Top Pretender(s)
Despite beating She’s a Tiger in the Chandelier, I think
4-SECRET COMPASS is bound to be an underlay in this spot. Call me a cranky old
fart, but I’m just not a fan of closers with poor LSRs. They make me madder
than a kid playing loud music and walking on my lawn.
Filly & Mare
Turf
Top Contender(s)
I know I’m going to catch some grief for this, but I
think 5-LADY OF SHAMROCK is sitting on a big effort. Last time, in the Grade I
Rodeo Drive, trainer John Sadler removed the blinkers that “Lady” had donned in
the John C. Mabee Stakes and the 4-year-old responded with the best race — from
a speed figure perspective — of her career.
After notching two Grade I wins as a three-year-old — not to mention a strong
showing in last year’s Filly & Mare Turf — the daughter of Scat Daddy has
been blanked (minus a win by DQ) so far at age four. Yet, if she makes one
sustained bid, which seems to be Sadler’s game plan, I think Lady of Shamrock
could light up the tote board.
Top Pretender(s)
Like Princess of Sylmar, 1-DANK is not a pretender in the
classical sense, but, rather, a filly that I think will be overbet. Yeah, her
score in the Beverly D. was impressive, but it was 77 days ago and it wasn’t that impressive (at least from a figures
standpoint).
Filly & Mare
Sprint
Top Contender(s)
If my selection of Lady of Shamrock in the Filly &
Mare Turf raised a few eyebrows, I’m guessing my top contender in this race
will prompt family members — and maybe even a few readers — to begin the commitment
process.
I kind of like 10-GREAT HOT.
I know, I know — the daughter of former BC Sprint champ Orientate wins about as
often as the Washington Generals, but, frankly, this field is no great shakes
and I was impressed by Great Hot’s last race. What’s more, her workouts at
Santa Anita have been outstanding.
2-BOOK REVIEW, 7-SUMMER APPLAUSE and 9-JUDY THE BEAUTY figure as well.
Top Pretender(s)
This race is generally not kind to frontrunners and that,
coupled with a wide draw, makes 12-SWEET LULU a dubious proposition at what
figures to be a fairly short price.
Turf Sprint
Top Contender(s)
2-ROCK ME BABY was stopped dead in his tracks in the
Grade III Eddie D. last time. With better racing luck — never a guarantee in a
crowded field — he could have a big impact at an even bigger price in the Turf
Sprint.
Top Pretender(s)
I’m not enamored with 4-RENEESGOTZIP, who finished third
in this race last year. First, there’s the 76-day layoff; second, there’s the
switch in surfaces (true, she pulled it off last year, but I’d have liked to
have seen at least one turf try in 2013 before a race of this magnitude).
Juvenile
Top Contender(s)
This race left me with more questions than answers — the
same way I feel every time I watch a movie on the Syfy channel. Is tossing bombs out of a
helicopter really the best way to deal with airborne killer sharks? According
to “Sharknado,” yes…
but I remain skeptical.
Anyway, I’m most impressed by the speed and pace figures
of 3-MEXICOMA in this event, but can a maiden race really be considered a viable
prep for a $1 million Grade I affair? It worked for Action This Day. He
parlayed a maiden win into a huge payday in 2003 (for the sake of this
discussion, we’ll ignore the fact that he failed to hit the board in six
subsequent starts as a three- and four-year-old).
6-TAP IT RICH also exits a maiden race and adds to the degree
of difficulty by attempting to become the first horse ever to win the Juvenile
off of a single prep — maiden or otherwise.
Then there’s the 5-2 morning-line favorite, 13-HAVANA. He
ran great in the Champagne at Belmont… maybe too great. Since 1997 only two (of 24) entrants that met the Juvenile
speed par in their final prep won the big race — and they paid $6.40 (War Pass,
2007) and $4.60 (Shanghai Bobby, 2013).
Hence, by default, I landed on 5-BOND HOLDER as my top
contender. The son of Mineshaft appears to be improving and has the same
connections as Derby and Preakness hero I’ll Have Another.
Top Pretender(s)
Me for thinking I could handicap this race without the
benefit of alcohol.
Turf
Top Contender(s)
I put a fork in 4-LITTLE MIKE earlier in the year and he
proved me wrong with a gutsy win in the Turf Classic, setting him up perfectly
for a defense of his 2012 BC Turf title.
I also like 7-THE FUGUE and even think some of the
longshots — 2-TEAKS NORTH instantly comes to mind — have a shot.
Top Pretender(s)
Both 5-SKYRING and 6-TALE OF A CHAMPION would surprise me
if they won.
Sprint
Top Contender(s)
Turn times rule in the BC Sprint and that makes me think
the rapidly-improving 3-GENTLEMEN’S BET could be sitting on a corker Saturday.
The son of Half Ours has finished out of the money just once in his eight-race
career and that was in the Phoenix at Keeneland on Oct. 4 — the first and only
time Gentlemen’s Bet competed on a synthetic surface. To make matters worse, he
broke poorly that day before rallying strongly to finish within 1 ¾ lengths of
the eventual winner, Sum of the Parts, who is also in the Sprint field and who finished a close fourth in last
year’s Sprint.
Perhaps the horse with the strongest overall credentials
is 1-JUSTIN PHILLIP. The Steve Asmussen trainee is fast, in good form and he’s
consistent. 4-MAJESTIC STRIDE and the aforementioned 5-SUM OF PARTS round out
my primary contenders.
Top Pretender(s)
7-PRIVATE ZONE is a frontrunner with abysmal ESRs.
Mile
Top Contender(s)
Try as I may, I simply can’t look past defending champ
8-WISE DAN in this spot. While it’s true that no horse has ever won the Mile
off of a non-turf prep, the pace scenario appears ideal for the son of Wiseman’s
Ferry on Saturday. And, frankly, this year’s Mile field simply isn’t very deep.
Although he’s been away for a while (231 days to be
exact), 6-BRIGHT THOUGHT is undefeated on the green and is 20-1 on the morning
line.
Top Pretender(s)
Even though 3-SILVER MAX defeated Wise Dan in an
off-the-grass renewal of the Shadwell Turf Mile last time, his LSRs do not meet
the race (and historical) par.
5-OLYMPIC GLORY is immensely talented… but his trainer is
not, at least in the Breeders’ Cup (0.58 EPR).
Classic
Top Contender(s)
Historical trends and traditional handicapping all point
to the same horse — and it’s not the 8-5 morning line favorite Game On Dude; it’s
6-MUCHO MACHO MAN, last year’s runner-up. Let’s start with the history: The
Classic typically favors horses with good tactical speed that were well-bet in
their final prep and who — surprise, surprise — are fast. Check, check and
check for Mucho Macho Man. He generally stalks the pace; he was the 8-5
favorite in the Awesome Again; and his last-race Brisnet speed figure is tops in
the field.
Now, on to traditional handicapping: Is there any horse that ran better than
the son of Mucho Uno did in the Awesome Again? I don’t think so. Not only did
Mucho Macho Man record a 113 Brisnet speed figure, but he also earned a -3 LSR
in that race. What’s more, his two starts
at Santa Anita are arguably the best of his career.
Top Pretender(s)
5-DECLARATION OF WAR is great — on turf. The colt’s
trainer is also great — on turf. Yes, Arcangues captured the 1993 Classic
following a run over the lawn in France, but Arcangues also paid $269.20 to win — the highest mutual in BC history.
Declaration of War won’t be 133-1 on Saturday.
We’ll already have some clues as to how trainer Bob
Baffert’s Breeders’ Cup is going before the Classic and that might help in assessing
9-GAME ON DUDE’s chances.
I’m not optimistic.
For some reason, despite a 1-for-9 record and a 0.66 odds-based impact value
(see below) with horses coming off a 60-day layoff or greater in the BC,
Baffert has chosen the “rested” route with many of his charges this year. In
addition to Game On Dude, Fed Biz, Book Review and New Year’s Day have all been
on the sidelines for two months or more.
But it gets worse for the “Dude:”
1) No horse over the age of five has ever won the Classic.
Baffert’s stable star is six.
2) In the past 16 years, excluding 2008 and 2009 when the
BC races were contested over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface, horses that last
raced on turf or faux dirt are 0-for-27 in the Classic. The “Dude” last raced
over Del Mar’s artificial surface in the Pacific Classic.
Breeders' Cup Handicapping Guides
26 comments:
Well, when I opted for betting at the derby I was in confusion as have to Buy Coursework Online UK native for my academic help. And I betted on the wrong horse, which cost me a lot even I wasn’t able to buy coursework. Since then, I have fear of these races, and I resist betting on them.
I have always been a fan of a horse race as it is really thrilling, especially when all the horses and jockeys are fit and well trained. It all started when once my grandfather took me to a race, and since then, I am a fan of this thing. As for the upcoming derby, I have already decided to buy persuasive essay writing services online for my next essay task so that I can solely concentrate on the race.
get custom leatherjackets at SwankyGarments Rudy Irish Wool Jacket
Thanks for sharing this blog. Very informative. Oneday Trip Around Chennai
This approach helps in critically evaluating the participants and their chances of success. It encourages us to look beyond superficial appearances and delve into the substance of each contender. It's a reminder that success often depends on a combination of skills, strategy, and determination. kail pancing
The compelling article "BC Contenders & Pretenders" analyzes the likely winners and underdogs in a fascinating setting. Readers gain insightful perspectives from the author's intelligent analysis and keen perceptions of the contenders' advantages and pretenders' weaknesses. It serves as an important resource for individuals looking for well-informed thoughts on the issue because the writing style is interesting and keeps the reader focused in the evaluation procedure. The article also keeps a balanced perspective, assuring justice in the evaluation of each competitor and pretender. Overall, this article serves as an educational and stimulating manual for aficionados trying to make sense of the field.
estate lawyer near me Virginia
Trucking accident attorney
Commercial Contract Disputes Lawyer
"BC Contenders & Pretenders" is a captivating theme that promises to spark discussions and opinions. The book explores the criteria used to distinguish contenders from pretenders, shedding light on the competitive landscape and separating genuine from hopeful individuals. The theme encourages critical assessment of potential and authenticity, and provides a fascinating lens through which to view diverse subjects. It also encourages us to question assumptions and dig deeper to uncover truth and potential. The book is a timely and thought-provoking exploration of the dynamics of competition and excellence across various fields. It reminds us that appearances can be deceiving and that this theme makes us question assumptions and dig deeper to uncover truth and potential. The world is full of contenders and pretenders, and this exploration is timely and thought-provoking. The theme is a universal theme that applies to many aspects of life, calling for discerning recognition of true excellence and potential. It encourages us to look beyond the surface and explore what drives success and identify those who are genuinely in the running. The book promises to provoke critical thinking and insightful discussion, showcasing the potential of this theme in various contexts.
Your article on Juvenile Fillies was both informative and captivating. The detailed exploration of these young, aspiring racehorses shed light on a facet of the equestrian world that often goes unnoticed. I found myself drawn into the dynamic world of Juvenile Fillies, appreciating the skill, training, and dedication that goes into nurturing these promising athletes. Keep sharing post like this. Divorcio Abogado Fairfax
Thank you for sharing this blog. Very informative and useful for us. Federal Wire Fraud Defense Lawyer
The BC Contenders & Pretenders analysis offers a comprehensive and insightful breakdown of the field, delving into the strengths, weaknesses, and potential of each entrant in the upcoming event. With meticulous scrutiny, it sifts through the contenders, highlighting their form, track records, and strategic advantages, painting a vivid picture of the top hopefuls poised for victory. Simultaneously, it dissects the pretenders, shedding light on their challenges, recent performances, and areas where they may fall short in the competitive landscape. This analysis serves as an invaluable guide for enthusiasts, providing a nuanced perspective that navigates through the complexities of the field, setting the stage for an electrifying and informed anticipation of the impending championship.
estate tax lawyer Virginia
flsa lawyer
Thank you for bringing this blog to my attention. Very instructive and beneficial to us.dui lawyer prince william county
The BC Contenders & Pretenders report explores the possibilities, shortcomings, and strengths of each competitor in the next event, providing a thorough and informative evaluation of the field. It sorts through the candidates with painstaking attention, showcasing their qualifications, experiences, and tactical advantages to create a clear image of the front-runners who are most likely to succeed.
lawyer for contract dispute
truck accident law
solicitation of a minor
BC Contenders have a strong track record and impressive performances, making them a formidable force in the championship race. However, they struggle to maintain consistency and often fall short against tougher competition. Despite their star-studded lineup and solid coaching staff, BC Pretenders lack cohesion and discipline, leaving fans and pundits disappointed. Despite their resilience and determination, BC Contenders struggle with inconsistent performance and a lack of depth in key positions. Their depth and versatility give them an advantage over their rivals, but their lack of cohesion and inability to execute game plans make them unlikely contenders for the championship title.
In Virginia, strategic legal knowledge is necessary to appeal a protection order. Our knowledgeable lawyers walk you through each step of the procedure and make strong arguments to guarantee a just and fair resolution to your case.
appealing a protective order in virginia
BC Contenders & Pretenders delivers insightful analysis, separating the contenders from the pretenders in the competitive landscape. With sharp commentary and thorough research, it navigates through market complexities, guiding informed decisions. A valuable resource for investors and businesses alike, offering clarity in uncertain times. Stay ahead of the curve with this indispensable report semi truck driver accident
BC Contenders & Pretenders offers insightful analysis and commentary on British Columbia's political landscape, distinguishing between viable candidates and fringe contenders. With thorough research and expert opinions, it provides a nuanced understanding of the province's electoral dynamics. A valuable resource for voters and political enthusiasts, it sheds light on the contenders poised for success and those facing uphill battles. motorcycle accident lawyer virginia
This article provides a detailed analysis of the Breeders' Cup races, highlighting the top contenders and pretenders. The top contenders include 6-GOLDEN PAL, 2-CHIMNEY ROCK, 7-LEINSTER, 3-BELVOIR BAY, 4-GAMINE, 6-SERENGETI EMPRESS, 3-ART COLLECTOR, 8-CODE OF HONOR, 5-MONOMOY GIRL, and 2-SWISS SKYDIVER. The article also highlights the top contenders and pretenders for additional Breeders' Cup races, such as Junior Fillies, Turf, Classic, and Improbable. The analysis offers valuable insights for bettors and fans following the races. ley de divorcio en nueva jersey
In New Jersey, child custody, support, alimony, and asset partition are all covered by divorce. The state distributes assets in an equitable manner. Irreconcilable differences or fault-based justifications are examples of legal grounds. A fair process and the defense of your rights are guaranteed when you speak with an attorney.
new jersey divorce
Thanks for wonderful content. great post. greensville traffic lawyer
The 2024 college football Bowl Championship (BC) is a competition between contenders and pretenders. Contenders include the Georgia Bulldogs, known for their dominant defense and strong running game. Ohio State Buckeyes, known for their explosive offense and depth, have a strong defensive line and experienced quarterback. Michigan Wolverines have a robust defense and balanced offensive attack, with defensive stars and a dynamic running game. Alabama Crimson Tide, under Nick Saban, has a deep roster and strong recruiting Criminal Defense Attorney Fairfax.
Excellent article! I found this incredibly useful. Thank you for sharing your knowledge. criminal lawyer fairfax va
In 2013, significant events occurred such as Pope Francis's election, Edward Snowden's leak of classified information about NSA surveillance, the Boston Marathon bombing, the intensified Syrian Civil War, Nelson Mandela's death, same-sex marriage legalization in several countries, the birth of Prince George, and the continued exploration of Mars by NASA's Curiosity rover. Other notable events included the Boston Marathon bombing, the Syrian Civil War, Nelson Mandela's death, the birth of Prince George, and the ongoing exploration of Mars.code of virginia emergency protective order
Amazing your blogs are really good and more informative. I got a lot useful information in your blogs. The book explores the criteria used to distinguish contenders from pretenders, shedding light on the competitive landscape and separating genuine from hopeful individuals. The theme encourages critical assessment of potential and authenticity, and provides a fascinating lens through which to view diverse subjects. It also encourages us to question assumptions and dig deeper to uncover truth and potential criminal defense attorney virginia beach. It is very good and more useful to all. Keep sharing more useful blogs,.,.,.
The blog's content often includes in-depth articles on recent games, player performance, and coaching strategies, making it a valuable resource for sports enthusiasts looking to stay informed about the latest developments. personal injury lawyer in Baltimore
If you're in need of a criminal defense lawyer long island ny , a divorce attorney can also provide expert legal guidance. Contact us today for more information.
Post a Comment