Lunar Handicapping
I know, I know — on the surface, such a topic seems…
well, loony. But I try to be open-minded and, the fact is, many prominent
people have put great faith in the stars.
Steel magnate and financier J. P. Morgan once said, “Millionaires
don't use astrology, billionaires do.”
Johannes Kepler, the man who used math to derive the laws
of planetary motion — much to the chagrin of Galileo Galilei — termed himself a
“Lutheran astrologer.”
“I throw away the nonsense and keep the hard kernel,” Kepler said.
“I throw away the nonsense and keep the hard kernel,” Kepler said.
And let us not forget Firenze, the omniscient centaur
from the “Harry Potter” series of books and movies. Firenze noted that wizards
and muggles alike should “watch the skies for great tides of evil or change
that are sometimes marked there.”
OK, maybe that last example was not as compelling as the
first two, but the point is that even men — and centaurs — of great distinction
have turned to the heavens for guidance. What’s more, the impact of lunar
cycles is something that many believe is real and present in our everyday
lives.
While preparing to re-visit this issue, I read an article
by Dr. Jeffrey Katz, entitled “Lunar Cycles And Trading” that appeared in Stocks & Commodities in 1997. In
this fascinating piece, Dr. Katz created a trading system based on the phases
of the moon.
Concentrating on wheat and silver futures, holding both
long and short positions, Katz’ system returned overall profits of 242 percent
and 190 percent from Jan. 2, 1990 to Feb. 21, 1997 respectively, leading him to
conclude the following:
The lunar cycle is an apparently relevant phenomenon that seems to
influence the markets. The results of this study also suggest it might be
worthwhile to look at the influences of other kinds of cosmic phenomena (for
example, sunspot activity, which has approximately an 11-year cycle; eclipses;
the alignment of planets and so on). In short, an examination of the astrology
of the market is not as far-fetched as it might sound at first. If we were to
“boldly go” where no trader has gone before, we may just find a little more of
that edge we are all seeking.
Then there’s my own experience.
Expecting to find the phases of the moon to have exactly zero impact on the results of
thoroughbred horse races, my initial research on the subject left me with some
troubling data. In a study of over 6,000 races run from 2004 to 2010, I found
that post-time favorites running on a day or night of a new moon did shockingly
well:
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(Click on image to enlarge)
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Hence, I have decided to
once again test the notion that favorites — forgive me — pay at the moon.
Using an entirely different database, this one comprised
of more than 27,000 races run from Febuary 2012 to November 2013, I first
checked to see how sole favorites (favored entries were ignored) performed:
Number: 27,364
Number: 27,364
Winners: 10,154
Rate: 37.1%
Return: $45,953.00
Net: $1.68
ROI: -16.03%
Next, I gathered the
digits on sole favorites running on the day or night of a new moon:
Number: 1,046
Winners: 402
Rate: 38.4%
Return: $1,870.90
Net: $1.79
ROI: -10.57%
Once again, the new moon numbers are superior (although we’re still dealing with a relatively small sample size). As much as it pains me, if this were the show “Mythbusters,” I’d have to rule the myth that favorites perform better on the day/night of a new moon “plausible.”
I suspect it’s all Stephanie Meyer ’s fault.
New Moon Dates in 2014
January 1
January 30
March 1
March 30
April 29
May 28
June 27
July 26
August 25
September 24
October 23
November 22
December 22
New Moon Dates in 2014
January 1
January 30
March 1
March 30
April 29
May 28
June 27
July 26
August 25
September 24
October 23
November 22
December 22
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