• Bogus Bias

    POSTED Jan 23, 2014
    John F. Kennedy once said that too often we “enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    Clearly, President Kennedy was talking about track biases. For few other subjects evoke as much hyperbole and outright nonsense than the notion of a track bias, a term popularized by Steve Davidowitz in “Betting Thoroughbreds.”

    According to Davidowitz, “Every racetrack has its peculiarities. Some are small in circumference, some have pasteboard-hard running surfaces, some card races that place a premium on early speed or post position.

    “And nothing can help to change or create a bias as effectively as a shift in weather conditions. A sudden rainstorm is odds-on to force a premium on early speed. On the other hand, a few days of rain, a sudden frost, or extreme heat can have totally unpredictable effects.”

    In order to spot a track bias, Davidowitz advises players to do four things:

    1. Watch the turns.
    2. Watch the break from the gate.
    3. Watch the run to the first turn (especially in route races).
    4. Watch the top jockeys.

    If this is not possible, Davidowitz adds that a “careful reading” of the results charts can also lead to the discovery of a track bias.

    Given this ambiguity, it is easy to see why “track bias” has become the modern-day equivalent of “cry wolf.” Tell people to search for something, especially something hard to define, and, by golly, they’ll find it!

    In fact, I got a chuckle out of the reactions to an article written by Daily Racing Form columnist Mike Watchmaker entitled “Talking Track Bias,” in which Watchmaker dared to say there was no speed bias on Belmont Stakes Day this past June.

    Those commenting on the piece couldn’t seem to agree on what a speed bias is, much less whether or not one existed:

    “Mr. Watchmaker fails to mention days when speed wins almost every race and other days where a front runner can't [find] the winner’s circle. This holds true for turf courses as well and, in both cases, certain racetracks are conformed and constituted in such a way as to favor a particular type of runner. … One of the reasons this wonderful sport has not caught on as well with later generations is the repetitive sight of wire-to-wire winners.”

    “… Go watch where all the winning closers came from, at least 5 to 6 lanes out. Watch how many horses two lanes in were getting caught.”

    “Yes, there was a bias. Orb's trainer said as much when he compared the surfaces between Churchill and Belmont. One was like a springboard, the other was looser and sandier.”

    “Bias is such a big and important topic that it may be worth writing a book about. Right off the bat most people confuse rail bias with speed bias. A hot rail is caused by track maintenance moving dirt away from the rail in anticipation of bad weather (because they can't grade a muddy track, and the rain, due to the slope of the track, will gradually move dirt from the outside to the inside). The thinner surface at the rail makes it fast. Usually people call this a speed bias, because the horses up front have the inside path, but a closer can win on it just as easily.”

    “Most of [the] horses that closed were horses with speed except, I believe, one race — if my memory is correct.”

    “You have to know if horses are holding on much deeper into races than you thought they had a right to if everything was equal, or that horses aren’t making the late moves you figured they should have.”

    “There was something a little different about Belmont on Saturday. I initially picked Golden Soul on top, but after watching three dirt races, you can see that front runners and stalkers were holding on all the way to the end. Closers weren't even plodding up for show money.”

    Well, that’s as clear as mud. So maybe the track was biased on Belmont Stakes Day, maybe it wasn’t — kind of like how I “may have won” a million dollars from Publisher’s Clearing House?

    Of course, I've heard the same gobbledygook from those who believed that Princess of Sylmar was done in by a “speed-favoring” track at Santa Anita in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    The fact that Princess of Sylmar was beaten by a whopping 16 ¼ lengths in the Distaff is overlooked by the bias boosters. The fact that Royal Delta, the champion mare “Princess” edged in the Beldame, was actually closer to the pace than Beholder in the Distaff? Summarily dismissed.

    Instead, those who cry bias point to Goldencents, the impressive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

    A Facebook friend of mine summed up the feelings I know many share regarding the speedy colt when he noted that Goldencents’ triumph on Breeders’ Cup Day “made perfect sense, but not after being hung out wide and running a savage pace.

    “Yet he kept going. The track carried him. Even if he tired a bit despite the bias it would have [been] understandable after that pace and trip. When he came back on a honest track, he could not duplicate that huge race.”

    True, in the Cigar Mile 29 days later, Goldencents finished a well-beaten seventh. However, that’s not the whole story. What my friend didn’t say is that Goldencents was bumped hard at the break of that race and, consequently, was third at the opening call.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    This is of no small consequence, as Goldencents has never won when he’s been worse than second at the first call. In fact, the son of Into Mischief is 0-for-4 in such instances. He is 2-for-4 when running second at the opening call and 3-for-5 when leading.

    Bias? I think not.

    Something tells me JFK would agree with me.
  • 15 comments:

    live casino said...

    I’m completely enjoying

    live sbobet casino online indonesia said...

    I truly appreciate this blog article.Really looking forward to read more

    live casino sbobet online said...

    I'm impressed, I must say. Very rarely do I come across a blog that's both informative and entertaining, and let me tell you, you've hit the nail on the head. Your blog is important; the issue is something that not enough people are talking intelligently about.

    harga motor said...

    If only I had your writing ability I look forward to more updates and will be returning.

    Unknown said...

    In the event that you exploit private gathering auto advances it furnishes you with time to pick and pick your auto at your recreation. When you locate the correct auto for you having the cash in a flash accessible can enable you to obtain it rapidly. This can be essential in the event that you are searching for a deal as uncommon offers don't stick around for long. By having the fund for quick buy you can exploit time constrained offers or uncommon deals. Cash Advance Chicago

    Richard Majece said...

    I am sure that advices from https://pro-academic-writers.com/blog/cheat-in-exams will be useful for students. Here you can read a lot about cheating in exams

    Rebecca Virginia said...

    This post is really informative and interesting.
    Essay Writing Help

    Unknown said...

    This is a truly good site post. Not too many people would actually, the way you just did. I am really impressed that there is so much information about this subject that have been uncovered and you’ve done your best, with so much class. If wanted to know more about green smoke reviews, than by all means come in and check our stuff.
    Plumbing Services Lawrenceville GA

    Michel hardy said...

    I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.
    Home Restoration Towson MD

    Accounting said...

    use eft direct with sage 50
    convert sage 50 to quickbooks desktop 2020
    setup and pay employees in sage 50
    how to print 1096 form for 1099 vendors in sage 50
    add restore or delete a company in sage 50
    convert quickbooks file to sage 50
    updating license key for sage crm

    Ghostwritingproficiency said...

    You MUST VISIT THIS SITE if you want to choose the best jackets. the most affordable source to buy jackets with imprints.Ghostwritingproficiency

    life coaching courses online said...

    If you want to select the greatest coats, you MUST VISIT THIS SITE. the most economical place to purchase imprinted coats life coaching courses online

    Eric said...

    I just discovered your site and have been following along. I intended to post my initial comment. I'm at a loss for words other than to say that I've loved reading. Good blog. I'll continue to frequent this blog.Author Chris Reynolds

    UPMSP 8th Class Syllabus 2024 said...

    UPMSP 8th Class new Syllabus 2024 Pdf File Format helps to get an idea About the Concepts and Topics Taught in class for a Subject During this Academic year 2024, Students will be able to Access the Clickable Download Links From where they can Download the Syllabus of Hindi, English Medium All Subjects.it is quite Essential that they have the Complete Knowledge of the UPMSP 8th Class Latest Syllabus 2024 of All Relevant Subjects UPMSP 8th Class Syllabus 2024 Knowing the Details of Prescribed Topics and the weight age Allotted to Them Makes it easy to plan your Studies Meticulously so that you can make Effective Preparations for your Exam and obtain desired marks.

    Bradley Briggs said...

    Don't fall for "Bogus Bias"! Instead, delve into the authentic intrigue of "DIABOLICAL." Buy DIABOLICAL book online and immerse yourself in a thrilling tale that'll keep you on the edge.

    Post a Comment