Derby Prep Preview
The past
couple of weeks, I’ve been looking at the Kentucky Derby preps in light of who
can progress on the Derby trail. This week, thanks in part to some key
defections in the two preps being analyzed — the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and
Grade II San Felipe — I’ve decided to look at both contests primarily from a
handicapping perspective.
So, without further ado…
So, without further ado…
TAMPA BAY DERBY (G2)
11th Tampa Bay Downs
1 1/16 miles (dirt)
1-RING WEEKEND (15/1)
Broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park last time, earning a 91 Brisnet speed figure (BSF) and a -9 late speed ration (LSR). However, the most interesting thing about this guy is his trainer, H. Graham Motion. Motion is very capable with recent maiden graduates (19 percent wins since 2008) and essentially breaks even with longshots of 10-1 or greater (-0.5 percent ROI in 608 starts over the past seven years).
Broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park last time, earning a 91 Brisnet speed figure (BSF) and a -9 late speed ration (LSR). However, the most interesting thing about this guy is his trainer, H. Graham Motion. Motion is very capable with recent maiden graduates (19 percent wins since 2008) and essentially breaks even with longshots of 10-1 or greater (-0.5 percent ROI in 608 starts over the past seven years).
The fact
that Motion enlists the services of Tampa Bay’s perennial top jockey, Daniel
Centeno, makes Ring Weekend that much more intriguing.
FAIR ODDS: 15-1
2-SURFING U S A (3/1)
Finished
second in an allowance race at GP in his latest after setting a moderate pace
(-5 early speed ration). Todd Pletcher trainee shows improving early lick and
could be sitting on a big effort — but 3/1 looks a little light.
FAIR ODDS: 5-1
3-MATADOR (8/1)
His recent
main-track LSRs are a concern, especially in light of the fact that he lost
position down the stretch in the Stephen F. Davis on Feb. 1. He could certainly
move forward off that effort, but I would insist on a decent price.
FAIR ODDS: 15-1
4-COLTIMUS PRIME (15/1)
Woodbine
shippers have not had overwhelming success at Tampa Bay Downs of late (-28.5
percent in 2013), but this Justin Nixon-trained colt may be the exception to
the rule. To begin with, Nixon is 15-of-42 (36 percent) with horses moving from
an all-weather surface (like Woodbine) to a dirt surface (like Tampa Bay
Downs).
Secondly,
Coltimus Prime’s front-running style should be aided by the switch. Tampa Bay
Downs has witnessed 26 percent wire-to-wire winners at today’s (main-track)
distance of 1 1/16 miles this meet. Contrast that with Woodbine, which has seen
just 18% wire-to-wire winners at the same distance over Polytrack.
FAIR ODDS: 12-1
5-CONQUEST TITAN (7/2)
His run in
the Holy Bull was good, but not great, as evidenced by the 92 BSF and -14 LSR
he earned for his runner-up performance. What’s more, he’s been wildly
inconsistent. He could certainly win — his class figures are among the best in
the field — but 7/2 is too low for me.
FAIR ODDS: 5-1
6-VINCEREMOS (4/1)
After
going way too fast early (-15 ESR), yet still
breaking his maiden, at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 4, this son of Pioneerof the
Nile showed grit and determination in winning the Grade III Stephen F. Davis by
the hair of his chinny chin chin on Feb. 1. His LSRs are improving and trainer
Todd Pletcher certainly knows how to win a Kentucky Derby prep (the Derby
itself is another matter).
FAIR ODDS: 7-2
7-EAST HALL (10/1)
I thought
this dude was a live longshot in the Fountain of Youth and he didn’t
disappoint, rounding out the superfecta at 72-1. That said, it’s hard to be
impressed with a closer that earned a -15 LSR last time; I don’t like him,
don’t hate him.
FAIR ODDS: 20-1
8-COUSIN STEPHEN (9/2)
To me, the
key to this colt’s performance is tactics and the switch to jockey Javier
Castellano may be telling in this regard. Although the son of Proud Citizen set
the pace and earned the best (lowest) last-race ESR in today’s field in the
Stephen F. Davis, he’s better coming off the pace — which he demonstrated under
Castellano… twice.
The first time was on Nov. 7 when the Chad Brown trainee came from third to win drawing away by 7 ½ lengths at Aqueduct while earning a 92 BSF and 0 LSR.
The first time was on Nov. 7 when the Chad Brown trainee came from third to win drawing away by 7 ½ lengths at Aqueduct while earning a 92 BSF and 0 LSR.
The second
time was at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 3. Even though he faded to fifth after
racing just off the leader at the first call that day, Cousin Stephen earned a
90 BSF and -2 LSR in a deceptively good effort.
A return to those stalking tactics makes him a big threat in the Tampa Bay Derby.
A return to those stalking tactics makes him a big threat in the Tampa Bay Derby.
FAIR ODDS: 4-1
9-HY KODIAK WARRIOR (10/1)
Very
interesting contender coming out of a ridiculously strong (7.0 Key Race Rating)
allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 3. Though his pedigree might be
questionable for the Kentucky Derby, today’s 1 1/16-mile event should pose no
problems and his strong overall speed and pace figures make the son of Kodiak
Kowboy a huge threat.
FAIR ODDS: 6-1
10-TUSCAN GETAWAY (20/1)
A relatively slow need-the-lead type breaking from the far outside in a 10-horse field… not exactly the kind of horse I like to play — at any odds.
A relatively slow need-the-lead type breaking from the far outside in a 10-horse field… not exactly the kind of horse I like to play — at any odds.
FAIR ODDS: 50-1
SAN FELIPE STAKES (G2)
5th Santa Anita Park
1 1/16 miles (dirt)
HOME RUN KITTEN
One dirt
race was not encouraging for son of turf star Kitten’s Joy. He’ll need to
improve a bunch to be competitive against the likes of these.
FAIR ODDS: 15-1
UNSTOPPABLE COLBY
Last-race
pace figures were remarkably good (-9 ESR, -5 LSR). However, those numbers were
earned in a nondescript maiden race (3.0 Key Race Rating)
and trainer D. Wayne Lukas costs bettors nearly 50 cents on the dollar in such
situations.
FAIR ODDS: 12-1
RPRETTYBOYFLOYD
Awful
overall LSRs for a horse trying to break its maiden in a Grade II race.
FAIR ODDS: 15-1
CALIFORNIA CHROME
Son of Lucky
Pulpit recorded a 94 BSF and -4 LSR in a resounding score in the California Cup Derby. And
even though that was a restricted affair, it’s hard not be impressed by how Art
Sherman’s protégé has been performing recently (two consecutive wins by a
combined margin of 11 ¾ lengths).
FAIR ODDS: 2-1
SAWYER’S HILL
Kristin
Mulhall has a positive ROI with horses moving from a sprint to a route and the
son of Spring at Last (24 percent route winners vs. 76 percent sprint winners)
had a useful prep, albeit against maiden company.
FAIR ODDS: 20-1
KRISTO
With
Bayern out and an inside draw, this guy looks like he could set the pace today…
and the numbers suggest he might be tough to catch. Last time, he earned a 95
BSF, -9 ESR and -11 LSR in a narrow loss to Midnight Hawk in the Grade III
Sham. New jock Joel Rosario hopes he can reverse that decision.
FAIR ODDS: 9-2
SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS
It’s the
tale of two cities with this son of Rock Hard Ten. On the plus side, he appears
very talented. In his first — and only — race, the David Hofmans trainee earned
an 88 BSF and -4 LSR in breaking his maiden over the faux dirt at Del Mar. He’s
also impeccably bred (his sire, Rock Hard Ten, gets 56 percent route winners
and boasts a 7.4 AWD).
On the negative side, Hofmans isn’t great with horses moving up in class — nor is he particularly adept with horses coming off a layoff.
On the negative side, Hofmans isn’t great with horses moving up in class — nor is he particularly adept with horses coming off a layoff.
FAIR ODDS: 8-1
MIDNIGHT HAWK
Colt’s
attempt to rate in the Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 8 was a mixed bag: although his
BSF went from a 97 in the Sham to a 95 last time, his LSR actually improved
from a -9 to a -6. Since then, the son of Midnight Lute has been working well for
trainer Bob Baffert, as witnessed by a five-furlong drill timed in :58-4/5 on
Feb. 26.
He looks
like a major player once again.
FAIR ODDS: 5-2
RECANTED
Hard to
endorse off his form in England and one race in the States… but all those races
were on the green.
FAIR ODDS: 20-1
Click HERE for free Brisnet past performances for the
San Felipe Stakes.
Riposte Looks Like a Lock in the
Hillsborough
I know, I
know… calling a horse a “lock” on a public forum such as this inevitably leads
to the defeat of said lock — typically in inglorious fashion. But I can’t help
myself: I think 6-Riposte (2/1 on the morning line) is the proverbial free
bingo square in the 9th race at Tampa Bay Downs, the Grade III
Hillsborough Handicap, on Saturday.
After competing against the best of the best on the grass in England and Ireland, Riposte made her US debut in the Grade III Suwannee River Stakes on Feb. 8. And despite a ridiculously slow pace that day (+12 ESR), Ripose came charging late, recording a 95 BSF and +9 LSR. If the 4-year-old daughter of Dansili performs anywhere near that good on Saturday, she will win.
At least that’s my story… and I’m stickin’ to it.
Simon Speed Rations Explained
 |
| Click on image to enlarge |
After competing against the best of the best on the grass in England and Ireland, Riposte made her US debut in the Grade III Suwannee River Stakes on Feb. 8. And despite a ridiculously slow pace that day (+12 ESR), Ripose came charging late, recording a 95 BSF and +9 LSR. If the 4-year-old daughter of Dansili performs anywhere near that good on Saturday, she will win.
At least that’s my story… and I’m stickin’ to it.
Simon Speed Rations Explained
Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early
energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the
figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.
-15=
Demanding.
-10=
Brisk.
-5= Moderate.
0= Soft.
Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late
energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the
figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event. Because late speed
is calculated at a time when a horse is being asked for his/her maximum effort,
LSRs can be a great indication of form as well.
0= Excellent.
-5= Good.
-10= Fair.
-15= Poor.
Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s
LSR and the ESR of the race in which it was earned. Positive profiles are
greatly desired.
Note:
ESRs and LSRs recorded on turf or all-weather surfaces tend to vary by 5-10
points from those garnered on dirt tracks.
3 comments:
There doesn't appear to be any stars in this field but it does shape up as a very interesting race to play. Surfing and Conquest will be tough to beat but I give Kodiak and East a good chance to upset. They both have solid LSR's and will be travelling well late off of what should be a fast pace. The most intriguing horse is the 4, Coltimus Prime who has run fast enough on poly to be a strong contender here. The problem is he might get caught up in a duel with Surfing and Tuscan which will kill his chances. For him to win today he has to rate, sit off the speed and pick up the pieces at the 1/8 pole. Boulanger was on him in his last race, that should be a plus.
Making and keeping a financial plan is a vital and capable piece of being a grown-up. Tragically, numerous individuals don't generally comprehend what is required to make and keep a financial plan. It is a procedure that should be taken care of with a decent arrangement of time and painstaking quality, keeping in mind the end goal to be viable. Cash Advance Chicago
MP Board Class 11th Important Question Paper 2023 to Read with More Adequacy for the Tests The MP Board 11th Class Past Question Paper 2023 includes subject-specific sections and themes that understudies should read in preparation for the board exam. MP 11th Question Paper 2023 Understudies must dissect the MP Board 11th Important Question Paper 2023 before beginning their arrangements. They must comprehend how much time should be dedicated to each section in order to set them up flawlessly. Previous MP Board 11th Question Paper 2023
Post a Comment