‘Key’ Derby Preps
The problem, which I pointed out in The 'Key Race' and Havre Disgrace, is that “by the time an event can confidently be deemed a Key Race it has lost its value as a predictive tool.”
“After all,” I note, “what good is it to discover a particularly strong race after half a dozen horses have already won their next start?”
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Yet among Denis of Cork (Illinois Derby), Tale of Ekati (Wood), Recapturetheglory (Illinois Derby), Adriano (Spiral), Z Humor (Illinois Derby), Anak Nakal (Wood) and Court Vision (Wood) only the former, who finished third, managed to hit the board in Louisville.
So far in 2013, there have been two weak preps (less than 3.0 KRR) and a couple of very strong ones, as the following chart attests to:
(Click on image to enlarge)