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  • A Historic Day?

    POSTED Jun 5, 2014 By Derek Simon
    On June 7, 2014, at Belmont Park in Elmont, NY, at approximately 6:52 PM Eastern Time, California Chrome will seek to become just the 12th Triple Crown winner in thoroughbred racing history.


    Since Affirmed became the 11th keeper of the Crown — I know, it sounds like a Tolkien novel — in 1978, 11 horses have captured the first two jewels of the series (the Derby and Preakness) only to fail in the third (the Belmont Stakes). I’ll Have Another would have been the 12th success or failure, but he was scratched the day before the Belmont and never raced again.

    Will California Chrome make history and “save racing” on Saturday?

    Time (hopefully under 2:30) will tell.

    You Call 36 Years a Drought?

    Lost in all the angst over the 36-year gap since Affirmed won the American Triple Crown, is the fact that there hasn’t been an English Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970 — 44 years ago.

    In fact, since Nijinsky’s sweep of the one-mile 2,000 Guineas, the 1 ½-mile Epsom Derby and the 1 ¾-mile (approximately) St. Leger Stakes, only three horses — Camelot (2012), Sea the Stars (2009) and Nashwan (1989) — have even had a shot at the coveted English Triple.

    What’s more, Nijinsky was the first English Triple Crown winner since the Aga Khan’s Bahram in 1935. So, by English standards, capturing the American Triple Crown is like earning a participation ribbon at a grade school field day. Since 1935, there have been nine American Triple Crown champs.

    Who said winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont was tough?



    The ‘Universal Bias’ Strikes Again

    In “Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping,” William L. Quirin, called early speed the “universal track bias” and, despite the 1 ½-mile distance and the vast expanse that is Belmont Park, statistics show that Quirin’s observation holds true for the Belmont Stakes as well.

    Since 2000, the average Belmont winner has been just 1.91 lengths back at the first (1/2-mile) call and 1.36 lengths in arrears at the second (10-furlong) call.

    Furthermore, Belmont winners have entered the Test of Champions with an average overall early speed ration (ESR) of -3. In fact, 9 of the past 14 Belmont champions have met that standard and they have produced an ROI of 258 percent to win, 60 percent to place and 10 percent to show.

    This year, just two horses qualify:

    * California Chrome (-4)
    * Samraat (-3)

    The Dope on Dosage

    With all the talk about California Chrome’s lack of distance breeding, I thought I would consult with an expert.

    Dr. Steven Roman runs the excellent Chef-de-Race Web site and is the creator of the Dosage Index (DI) so often referenced at this time of year.

    Although no horse with a DI greater than 3.00 has won the Belmont since Empire Maker (3.16) in 2003, Dr. Roman believes that horses like California Chrome, who has a 3.40 Dosage Index, have become the norm rather than the exception.

    “It is interesting to note that in this year's Derby and Preakness, California Chrome's DI falls essentially right on the respective trend lines,” Roman said. “In other words, in terms of Dosage, he is almost ideally representative of contemporary North American classic breeding.”

    “The patterns over time for all three Triple Crown events are similar, with the Dosage figures of the winners steadily increasing over time since 1940, reflecting the continuous shift toward speed in North American breeding,” Dr. Roman explained.

    “I doubt if there is a single horse these days bred specifically for the Belmont distance (at least on dirt). The result is that suitability to the distance is more an accident than intentional. Someday, a dozen sprinters may line up in the Belmont starting gate and one of them will have to win — not a pretty picture,” he concluded.

     

    Graphic courtesy of Dr. Steven Roman
    • affirmed
    • Belmont Park
    • California Chrome
    • CD
    • Derek Simon
    • DI
    • Dosage Index
    • ESR
    • LSR
    • Nijinsky
    • Quirin
    • Steven Roman
    • Test of Champions
    • Triple Crown
    • universal bias
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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

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Contributors

Derek Simon

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

Frank Cotolo

TwinSpires' harness racing expert, Frank Cotolo follows all of the big North American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and latest news from the sulky.

Ed DeRosa

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

Peter Thomas Fornatale

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.

Jill Byrne

A television racing analyst for Churchill Downs, Jill has earned acclaim and a loyal audience throughout Thoroughbred racing.

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